Chien, your thoughts about "Black Widow" mirror my own, exactly. With one exception: Given that there's a high likelihood that "Widow" will be at least on some level a prequel, I doubt there will be much CGI work needed (unless they need to SERIOUSLY de-age Natasha Romanov), and so I believe the film will rely heavily on practical effects... More "Alias", or "Mission: Impossible", or "John Wick", than your standard effects-heavy superhero film. I may be wrong.
Point is, I think "Black Widow" COULD well be completed and ready for release in late April; but I don't think Disney will, somehow. And, as you say, what sort of opeing-weekend performance are we really expecting, here? $65, $70M, maybe $80M at the EXTREME high end? This would be, at best, an 8th-Round pickup in my view, and a long shot, at that.
...Me counseling sobriety and restraint? The Moon must be off its axis, folks. Nevertheless, I hope the gamble pays off. Makes things interesting, and I do love seeing the risk-acceptant rewarded.
--Nico.
I remain, as always.