ReelSociety Forums

J.I. wrote:It is absolutely impossible for it to beat TDK's opening weekend record. Heck, it may not get within $30 million of it.

Only $18M off the record.

Yeah, it held up thorugh the weekend just like the original, when I thought it would fall harder. Its doing absolutely fantastic.

But now, it has nowhere to go but down. I can see a drop between 65 and 75 percent in Week Two against Thanksgiving competition.

Buscemi wrote:But now, it has nowhere to go but down. I can see a drop between 65 and 75 percent in Week Two against Thanksgiving competition.

Doesn't every movie have nowhere to go but down after their opening weekend??

frendo wrote:

Buscemi wrote:But now, it has nowhere to go but down. I can see a drop between 65 and 75 percent in Week Two against Thanksgiving competition.

Doesn't every movie have nowhere to go but down after their opening weekend??

well there was that one movie about a sinking ship that didnt go down... well for quite some time

undeadmonkey wrote:

frendo wrote:

Buscemi wrote:But now, it has nowhere to go but down. I can see a drop between 65 and 75 percent in Week Two against Thanksgiving competition.

Doesn't every movie have nowhere to go but down after their opening weekend??

well there was that one movie about a sinking ship that didnt go down... well for quite some time

Rocky V?

Buscemi wrote:But now, it has nowhere to go but down. I can see a drop between 65 and 75 percent in Week Two against Thanksgiving competition.

I think the Thanksgiving movies this year are pretty weak. Especially now since The Road seems to be getting dumped, or at best, is getting a limited release.

And I don't think the audience for New Moon and Old Dogs overlap by much.

The question now is how much New Moon will make in total. Was this weekend's performance due to fan hysteria? If so the film could plummet. The first film dropped 62% in its second week, then 50% on its third and then 40 and 34 for the next two weeks. If New Moon had similar drops it would make about $260mil in its first four weeks, which is frankly staggering.

But I think it'll drop a little harder. The first film had its initial rabid fans, but there were many who only became aware of Twilight once the film was released, and subsequently became fans. Those people of course flocked to the opening weekend to create this scarily huge opening weekend. Still, it seems likely that New Moon will pass $300 million by the end of its run.

I'd put its multiplier at a little under 2. Eclipse will probably hit $300 million though (having a Transformers-esque opening since it's a five-day opening).

And I revise my estimate that the world is fucked. 300M means the world is retardedly fucked beyond hope...

I made a ton of (hsx) cash on Blind Side this weekend and then dumped everything save Old Dogs to short the Hell out of New Moon. Hopefully it'll pay off.

numbersix wrote: But I think it'll drop a little harder.

Yes but this one did have a better inter-weekend multiplier than the last one. Twilight's opening day made up 51.7% of its opening weekend, but New moon's opening day made up 50% of its opening weekend. It would only need a 2.15 multiple from its opening weekend to get to $300 million, and the last Twilight had a 2.77 multiple. I think $300 million is very likely now.

Hell, they're just as rabid as last year and there's more of them. $300 M is a lock. It's whether it'll finish closer to $350 or $400 M that I'm contemplating right now.

Hey, does anyone remember the days in which sequels actually made less than the first installment?

W wrote:I made a ton of (hsx) cash on Blind Side this weekend.

Same here. I'm also making a a nice chunk of change on Dear John and Remember Me.