Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 10/30 This Is It, Gentlem

SS calls the shot on the potential PTA hits.

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Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 10/30 This Is It, Gentlem

Post by silversurfer19 »

Hello again, and welcome to another edition of Surfer’s Limited Release, the place to come for all things indie. This is my first week writing in a rather new environment, but while the forum may have moved, I’m still talking about the same old stuff and I’m sure I still have the same three people reading it. However, this week has seen quite a few changes, and hopefully for the better, as we venture on into our way to evoke world domination on the unsuspecting masses. By the new year we should hopefully have a fully functioning website which will stand side by side with the forum, as well as a blockbusting new game with a little help from our Italian friends. If this plan comes into fruition then I can see a very rosy future for the fantaverse indeed.

Anyway, as well as our own personal ruptures over the past week, we also saw a movie franchise finally collapse. Well, maybe collapse is overstating it a little, but it was certainly the start of the end for the Saw franchise. A franchise that once guaranteed box office success, and grosses in excess of $50 million now looks like it will struggle to get beyond $35 million. Still a success in terms of its overall profit (it is rumoured the movie only cost $11m to produce), it looks like it might just managed to make one more movie before the doors are closed on another successful horror series.

With such a dramatic crash from Saw VI, it has made it a much more manageable task for this week’s major draw, Michael Jackson’s This Is It, to claim a stake for the top spot. With only the ever expanding Paranormal Activity as competition, MJ should have no problem hitting the no.1. But what is the fuss all about with this concert movie? Well, This Is It is a concert movie culled from hours of rehersal footage of The King Of Pop’s last days before his untimely death a few months ago. It’s strange, I’ll take this moment to tell you that on the day of his death, my wife and I were flying over the Atlantic back to the UK to visit our parents. We had no way of knowing what had happened, but for some reason we prophesised on a theory that a Michael Jackson movie would make a fortune if it was ever made, but that it would never happen until his death. We land in Manchester and what is the first thing we hear? (other than the panic of over excited women chasing their baggage) Yes you guessed it. Maybe I can do more than just see the future of limited release movies…..

Anyway, enough of that. The movie is being released exactly a year following it’s director’s previous offering, High School Musical 3. And I’m fairly certain it will be able to at least match if not exceed Disney’s $42 million opening. Some have suggested an OW of over $50m, and while that is entirely possible (especially considering the amount of IMAX showings it reportedly had, as well as the number of presale tickets which have rumoured to have been sold), I just don’t think it will be THAT big. But then I said the same thing about a certain record breaking caped crusader which also featured a recently deceased star last year….

It is opening on Wednesday night and will likely bring in a lot of the diehards before the weekend, but it will certainly win the weekend, and will probably hold strong over the next couple of weeks too. It’s closest comparison could probably be the Hannah Montana concert movie Best Of Both Worlds which was released a couple of years ago, which emphasised the impact an obsessed (if rather crazy) fanbase can have on a movie’s success.

However it must be remembered that it will probably not be hitting the Hannah Montana PTA due to its much larger distribution. And over the next couple of weekend’s it will have to share it’s IMAX screens with two other movies; Where The Wild Things Are and A Christmas Carol, which will to an extent halt it’s box office charge. However, using the ‘two weeks release only’ trick previously used by Hannah Montana and Toy Story double feature, it will likely not be too affected by those in a desperate rush to see the movie before it disappears from cinemas forever.

Anyway, so how will it perform? Well it will certainly win its opening weekend, and there’s a good possibility it will take the PTA crown as well, while over the next couple of weekend’s I expect it to bring in a further 7 top 5 points and another 4 PTA points. That would give it a total of 12 top 5 points, 9 PTA and I suspect a box office close to $130 million. And while its IMDB will unlikely be anything special, I would think that for $14 in Ultimate and $13 in Box Office it’s an absolute steal. What were the pricing guys thinking….

Next up is the latest release from Jared Hess, the creator of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre. Gentlemen Broncos tells the story of a young loner (Michael Angarano) who writes a story that is plagiarized by a famous fantasy novelist (Jemaine Clement from "The Flight of the Conchords") and then turned into a movie by a local filmmaker. This story sounds a lot more interesting than Hess’ previous offering Nacho Libre, and the trailer certainly has its moments. Opening in only two theatres (one in NY, one in LA), I believe this will certainly be pushing This Is It for the top spot in the PTA chart. Napoleon Dynamite opened in more theatres in 2004 and still managed to bring in over $19,000 PTA, and though there isn’t quite as much hype surrounding Hess’ latest offering, I think it will perform well, probably hitting close to $15,000 PTA. Over the next couple of weekends it faces competition from Precious which will likely take the top spot, and then Fantastic Mr. Fox the following weekend. However, I think it will perform well enough to bring in a total of 7 PTA points and an IMDB of around 6.5, while it is unlikely to take any top 5 points or bring in a lot of box office. For 7 dollars I’d say it’s worth the gamble in Ultimate, but unlikely to really offer anything substantial in BO.

Also released this weekend we have Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day, the sequel to the immensely popular dvd release from 1999, Boondock Saints – a movie about two brothers who unite to rid the world of evil after being set this mission by God, all the while tracked down by an FBI agenyt.I was recently able to watch the original movie on dvd, and to be honest I’m kinda stuck in between the two camps of those on here who adore the movie, and the critics who pretty much hate it (it’s sitting at 18% on RT, but 7.8 on IMDB!). It’s unusual for a movie to create such a divide, but it is definitely a cool movie with more than a hint of Tarantino and Rodriguez in it. However that is equally balanced by the poor dialogue and awful acting from the two leads. It’s a good thing Willem DaFoe and Billy Connelly are on hand to provide some class. Anyway, this second movie comes mainly due to the massive support its fans have given, but from what I hear it doesn’t look like Shane Duffy has used those last ten years to hone his writing skills, while Sean Patrick Flannery and Norman Reedus have hardly set the world alight with their acting. Add to that the I don’t even think Willem DaFoe has anything coming close to a major role in the movie and this doesn’t look good. I’m sure that there will be a few sub-Tarantino shots to pull in the fans, and I’m sure they will be pleased with what is presented. But I don’t think it will be enough to convert a whole new audience. Added to that it is only opening in 65 theatres, which is no good for its box office, but no good for PTA either. So expect no PTA, no top 5s, a decent IMDB (around 7) and a total box office take around $2million. It’s not worth your $3 in either league.

Finally, we have the only horror to be released on Halloween. What has the world come to. Good thing I have a good selection of DVDs to choose from…. Anyway, so that movie is The House Of The Devil, a retro thriller from one of horror’s brightest indie stars. Ti West (The Roost, Trigger Man). Trying to earn money for a new apartment, college co-ed Samantha (Jocelin Donahue) takes a job babysitting at a remote house in the middle of nowhere and quickly learns that things aren't what they seem as she's left alone in the spooky house. As a homage to the cult horror flicks of the 70s and early 80s, the movie avoids the now typical cliché of throwing blood and gore at its characters within the first five minutes, and instead offers time to develop the characters and then slowly build the scares for a horrific climax. It’s been a year which has seen some strong horror offerings (along with its fare share of shockers), especially from the horror comedy sector (Zombieland, Drag Me To Hell, Dead Snow), but this straight horror is apparently a match for all of those, and while it takes influence from the classics, it is an original in its own right. Opening in only 3 locations, this one has the potential to take advantage of the lack of new horrors this weekend and bite a chunk in the PTA field, possibly bringing in a sole PTA point. It’s also available on demand, so if you can’t find it at one of those three locations it is playing, it’s highly advised to catch this one while you can. It’ll cost you $3 in Ultimate and $2 in BO- and despite its 7.7 IMDB rating its probably too much for either version, but highly advised for your own personal pleasure this weekend.

That’s it for me this week. Next week I’ll leave the blockbusters back to our one and own Bard, so that I can concentrate solely on the smaller movies. That will include the Oprah approved Precious based on the novel Push, and the Hal Holbrook offering That Evening Sun. Hope to see you then!

This week’s PTA predictions:

1. Michael Jackson’s This Is It
2. Gentlemen Broncos
3. An Education
4. Antichrist
5. The House Of The Devil

And my own BO top 5:

1. Michael Jackson’s This Is It - $43m
2. Paranormal Activity - $15.5m
3. Where The Wild Things Are – $7.5m
4. Law Abiding Citizen - $7.2m
5. Saw VI – 6.5m

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Re: Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 10/30 This Is It, Gentlem

Post by thswrestler160 »

DHD update this is it 12mil wed including 2.2 from midnights. 40-50 5 day

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Re: Surfer's Limited Release - Weekend 10/30 This Is It, Gentlem

Post by Geezer »

I don't care if Boondock Saints is in 65 theaters. I still think its hitting the PTA top 5. The movie has a large built in audience. I know I'll be there Friday night, I'll let you know how packed the theater.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - The Dude