Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/7

[transformers2]

Captain America's quest to beat out Ant-Man gained some real momentum this past weekend.

Largely due to only ceding a small portion of its PLF presence to Ne Zha 2 and an IMAX-exclusive Oppenheimer re-release in select markets and a lack of competition at the top of the marketplace, Brave New World eased a respectable -47% ($14.9 mil) in its third weekend of release and now sits at $163.5 mil. That puts it about $23.5 mil behind Quantumania at the same point of release and just under $50 mil behind its final BO total. The viability of Brave New World's effort to top Quantumania will likely be determined by how the tepidly-received MCU project fares this weekend when Mickey 17 takes all of its big money screens.

The weekend's sole proper new wide release Last Breath finished in second with a $7.9 mil debut. That was roughly a $1 mil shy from the high-end of its tracking range and with its strong exits, Alex Parkinson's docu-survival thriller could have a chance to leg out to $30 mil during this slow stretch of the calendar if that strong WOM translates to ticket sales.

Rounding out the top 5 was The Monkey-which held a bit better than expected with $6.4 mil (-54%) in weekend #2, Paddington in Peru ($4.5 mil, -31%) and Dog Man ($4.2 mil, -28%). 2 of these 3 titles could conceivably remain in the top 5 this weekend if Rule Breakers falters in its debut.

Lastly, Wide-ish openers My Dead Friend Zoe and Riff Raff performed as expected, both netting under $1 mil and a little over $900 per theater. Both titles will be on their way to VOD menus shortly.

Wide Releases:
After being tossed around the calendar like a football on a beach during a lovely July afternoon, Mickey 17 (Warner Brothers) will finally be making its way to multiplexes in the US/Canada in 2 days time. Bong Joon-ho's long-awaited follow-up to Parasite is a real testament to the type of investment the industry is willing to make if you're an autuer coming off an Oscar win. In fact, there's probably no other scenario where a major studio would give Bong $100+ mil and final cut privileges for a loose adaptation of a not exactly popular sci-fi novel that's barely even 2 years old at this point (and that's after what amounts to a slightly over 11-month delay!). Word from the critics that have seen it over the past few weeks is that Bong has once again delivered the goods, so kudos to him for using the success of Parasite to make his biggest movie to date without compromising the strength of and effort behind his artistry.

What makes this huge investment in Mickey 17 all the more sweet is that it basically has zero chance of being a hit. In WB's defense, they have severely stepped up their marketing efforts over the past month-flodding the internet, streaming services and major linear television broadcasts such as the Grammys, Oscars and NBA All-Star Game with spots to help get the word out. The problem is that the only audience for an anti-capitalist sci-fi satire that's led by Robert Pattinson in full eccentric freak mode are cinephiles. Whatever casual audience does turn up this weekend will likely hate it, which leads me to believe that this will get off to an alright start before fading fast-especially once its PLF presence disappears (it's set to have a week in Dolby and 2 weeks in IMAX).
Price: $15 ULT/$16 BO
Predictions:$13-22 mil OW/3-6 PTA/7-13 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$35-65 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Although it's guaranteed to finish #1 this weekend, hang around the top 5 next weekend and notch a solid IMDb score, the high probability of it posting underwhelming grosses make it a questionable choice-especially in BO.


Rule Breakers (Angel) is a fact-based story about a woman (Nikohl Boosheri) who establishes a robotics teams for young women in Afghanistan that goes onto compete in a global competition in the United States in the face of backlash from many of the men in their country and threats from the Taliban. Despite being completely in English, this doesn't seem like the kind of inspirational story that's going to play with Angel's faith-based base in America's heartland. Honestly even if it was, it still probably wouldn't do much as the studio is coming off the lowest grossing title in their history in January's Brave the Dark ($4.5 mil total domestic) and are clearly putting whatever limited marketing resources they have into next month's The King of Kings.
Price: $4 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions:$1.5-6mil OW/0-2 PTA/0-3 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$4-20 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it's cheap enough to roll the dice on, I'm not sold on its odds of becoming the next Angel film to do respectable business.


Limited Releases:
On Becoming a Guinea Fowl (A24) was a festival darling for much of last year as it premiered in the Un Certain Regard of Cannes and parlayed the raves it earned there into screenings in New York, Toronto, London and Mumbai. Rugano Nyoni's sophomore feature focuses on a Zambian family that has to reckon with its complicated family history after a young woman (Susan Chardy) discovers her uncle's (Roy Chisha) body on the side of the road while driving home one night.

Like last year's similarly acclaimed A Different Man and Janet Planet, A24 is releasing On Becoming a Guinea Fowl with very little fanfare after sitting on it for a prolonged period of time. Despite the muted marketing and the inevitable hurdles it faces as a (primarily) non-English language film, On Becoming a Guinea Fowl is arguably in a better spot to succeed than those films simply because of the market it's entering. The share of the limited market this weekend On Becoming a Guinea Fowl could even clear 50% this weekend if fellow opener Eephus misfires, which makes it a clear contender for the PTA crown. Next week could prove to be a problem once it begins expanding outside of NYC/LA, but given the shaky prospects of all 4 wide releases on the calendar, it could find its way back to the PTA podium regardless of how it performs.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$20-40K OW/4-10 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$125k-$350k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The clear PTA upside it possesses is solid enough to make it worth considering in ULT.


Eephus (Music Box) is yet another festival favorite that debuted at Cannes that went onto become a film that quietly earned a lot of love of other festivals on the circuit-including New York and London. This 90's-set sports drama tells the story of a Central Massachusetts recreational baseball league playing its final games on their longtime home field before the town demolishes it to build a new middle school. Uncut Gems scene-stealer Keith Richard Williams, veteran documentarian Fredrick Wiseman and Red Sox legend Bill “Spaceman” Lee head up the large cast of old-timers that mostly consists of non-professional actors.

This is a film that could quietly be a great ULT pick in our game if things break its way. Music Box has a tendency to release their films in only a few theaters on opening weekend and a film about how aging takes away the things you love-whether it be the ability to play baseball or a place where so many cherished memories were made-has a broad-ish appeal to it that could it allow to overperform by microbudget indie standards. Anybody who isn't afraid of striking out swinging when they step up to the plate should definitely considering taking a chance on this one.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions:$15-35k OW/2-10 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$90-300k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: If you have the space for it and believe in its ability to overperform, absolutely.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Mickey 17 $17 mil
2.Captain America: Brave New World $7 mil
3.Last Breath $5 mil
4.The Monkey $4 mil
5.Rule Breakers $3 mil

PTA: On Becoming a Guinea Fowl, Eephus, Mickey 17, Last Breath, The Monkey

Screen will be here next week to talk about Jack Quaid's bid to become an everyman action hero, Steven Soderbergh's return to the spy genre, Ayo Edebiri's freaky showdown with John Malkovich and the Looney Tunes movie that David Zaslav tried to throw in the trash that was actually saved by another studio.

[Buscemi2]

Mickey 17 has had no buzz whatsoever and who's the audience besides filmbros? They might dominate the Oscars but not the box office.

Meanwhile, I'm still trying to figure out how Rule Breakers got Phoebe Waller-Bridge in the cast. Was this a film Angel picked up for distribution or has Waller-Bridge turned into Letitia Wright or something? On a related note, The Rule of Jenny Pen, a horror film with John Lithgow and Geoffrey Rush, is opening the same day in select markets so these two are bound to get confused with each other if they are playing in the same theatre (one theatre in my area got both).

Speaking of Oscars, I found one of my local theatres is screen-splitting Anora with Night of the Zoopocalypse, a kid-friendly animated movie based on a Clive Barker story. This is not a matinee/evening split so you could easily watch a PG-rated cartoon followed by a hard R-rated drama about a stripper.

Queen of the Ring is also getting a couple screens in my area. I'm probably seeing it Thursday night in hopes of finding that new movie that is bad but fun (they don't seem to make those anymore).

[Chienfantome]

Eephus is a good film. Frederick Wiseman only does a voice cameo in the film though.
As for mickey 17, I haven't seen it yet, but I've heard good things about it. I suspect it won't be as fantastic as what Bong does in Korea, as always with Asian filmmakers working in Hollywood, but it's probably great nonetheless.

[Buscemi2]

It feels like all of Bong's English-language films are the exact same. You could probably switch this one with Snowpiercer or Okja and you couldn't tell the difference.

Why won't an American studio let him do a crime film or something like The Host (which interestingly has a scene in English with Scott Wilson's cameo)? It's always a dystopian film with satirical elements that don't quite work as Bong isn't really a comedic director.

[Chienfantome]

The difference I think, for now, between Bong's Korean and American/western films, is that his Korean films are more subtle for sure, as his western films are more openly political, while the politics in his Korean films blend in the genre used with more subtlety.
But I'm very curious about Mickey 17 because although it has been made two years ago, from what I hear it is a film about capitalism pushed to its extremes and the growth of fascism. Having the film released in the time of the Trump/Musk regime seems like the perfect timing.

And I strongly disagree with you, Bong is a great comedic director. Like all the great Korean directors, he knows how to blend comedic traits in the darkness of his subject. I always laugh watching Bong films.

[transformers2]

Completely agree with Chien. Whether it's the driving force of the movie (Parasite) or merely undertones deployed in a more serious story (Memories of Murder, Snowpiercer), Bong's comedic direction is terrific.

[Buscemi2]

That Queen of the Ring review is getting delayed a few days. My showing got canceled due to technical difficulties and I got a refund and a free pass (which was then redeemed for a Tuesday showing of Anora). Queen of the Ring will now be seen on Sunday.

[transformers2]

Mickey 17 made $2.5 mil from previews

[Buscemi2]

Definitely wasn't expecting that number. How's the word of mouth and how frontloaded should we expect it to be?

[transformers2]

TBD. Deadline didn't have the PostTrak exits up as of 10 minutes ago.

Edit: PostTrak was at 4 stars. That's great for a sci-fi satire

[Buscemi2]

Is there a demographics chart out yet? I could see fans of Bong skewing the scores much like Chalamet fans did with Bones & All a few years back.

[transformers2]

No, but it's definitely a possibility that the exits were inflated by Bong/Pattinson fans

[Buscemi2]

Only time will tell. The Cinemascore should be out between late tonight and early tomorrow.

[transformers2]

Saw Mickey 17 this afternoon. The exits should continue to be fine. It's not nearly as strange or dark as I thought it would be.

[Buscemi2]

So we should be expecting a Cinemascore in the B+ range?