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Last Week

A24 had their first number one opener with Alex Garland's Civil War, which opened to about 26 m. This is a pretty impressive number, especially considering reactions to the marketing campaign didn't seem particularly positive. That being said, I expect WOM to be very mixed, and a total of 60-65 m seems likely. In second was Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire, which grossed about 15.5 m, dropping 50 percent for a total so far of 158 m. While it has been a bit front-loaded, it has still done very well, and will likely end up grossing 185-190 m. In third is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, which dropped 36 percent to gross about 6 m. While it hasn't completely tanked, it is likely a disappointment for Sony, and will likely end up with about 110 m. In fourth is Kung Fu Panda 4, which grossed 5.5 m, dropping just 29 percent. While it is looking like a coin toss as to whether it reaches 200 m, it has done very well, and should continue to hold well with no family competition over the next few weeks. In fifth is Dune: Part Two, which dropped 42 percent to gross around 4 m. It has had a great run, and will likely close with 285-290 m. Both of last week's wide releases fell out of the Top 5, and none of the other semi-wide/wide releases made too much of an impact.

The top PTA of the weekend goes to Sasquatch Sunset, which grossed about 10 k in 9 theaters. While not a bad opening for something so potentially off-putting in a vacuum, Ari Aster's involvement/the starry cast probably raised expectations beyond what it could deliver, and it is unlikely to do much in wide release. Civil War took second (it seems that even if an A24 film is number one at the box office, it will still play a part in the PTA part of the game ), grossing about 7 k in about 3,800 theaters. Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire took third, grossing just over 4 k in a similar amount of theaters to Civil War. In the game, fourth went to the very acclaimed The Beast, which grossed about 2 k from 23 theaters. Fifth went to Dune: Part Two, which grossed close to 2 k in about 2,400 theaters.

This Week

Abigail



Vampire movies have had a rough run over the past few years. While Morbius is probably the most notorious example, The Invitation, Renfield, and The Last Voyage Of The Demeter all had poor reviews, poor box office, or both. There is some reason to believe that Abigail will change this, however. Radio Silence and Melissa Barrera have gained a lot of public goodwill after their firing from Scream 7, and the rest of the cast are relatively notable as well, including the late Angus Cloud. Reviews have been very positive, as well. One thing I do think it will have issue overcoming is that horror-comedies can be a tough sell, especially the ones that lean more towards horror. That being said, I do think legs will be solid once WOM gets out.

I expect an OW of 13 m, and a total of 37 m.

It will get you 10-15 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

While these numbers aren't bad, I think that The Strangers: Chapter One is a better choice for around the same price.

The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Warfare



This is unlikely to do well in terms of budget, though it will probably do numbers in the typical Guy Richie range. I do believe that this would have had more promise if it was marketed more heavily, and given a better spot than two weeks before The Fall Guy. As is, however, I think it will struggle to get past 25 m in total.

I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 25 m.

It will get you 5-7 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Spy X Family Code: White



I am not sure of the popularity of the anime this is based on, but it has received really strong reviews, and it is getting IMAX screens, so I assume there will be a solid turnout for it.

I expect an OW of 7 m, and a total of 16 m.

It will get you 2 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Stress Positions



I don't think that this will be one of Neon's more successful releases. Buzz around it feels low overall, and I expect there is still some audience apprehension over seeing a film about COVID, especially in a comedic light. That being said, reviews are strong enough that it should have a solid PTA.

I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 5-8 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Egoist



I haven't heard much about this film. That being said, reviews have been very strong.

I expect an OW PTA of 15 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 4-6 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

We Grown Now



This is one of the last films produced by the defunct Participant Media. Unfortunately, they seem like they will go out with a whimper, box office wise. Reviews have been strong so far, but there is very little in the way of buzz surrounding it.

I expect an OW PTA of 10 k, and a total of 1 m.

It will get you 3 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.



Top 5

Abigail - 13 m
Civil War - 10 m
The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Warfare - 10 m
Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire - 10 m
Spy X Family Code: White - 7 m

PTA

Stress Positions - 20 k
Egoist - 15 k
We Grown Now - 10 k
Spy X Family Code: White - 4 k
Abigail - 4 k

Next Week

Join six next week for a look over some promising new releases, including the long-awaited Challengers.

Broadly agree with these numbers

Ungentlemanly Warfare might go a little lower. Not a huge push on this, as VOD will be its main income. And Cavill isn't a major draw. I'm thinking $8m

Stress Positions has gotten rather mixed reviews and COVID-themed movies never took off. I don't even think it manages a third of that number.

As for the wide releases, Lionsgate really missed the boat with Ministry by not starting the ad campaign earlier. Sure, reviews haven't been great but it seems like a crowd pleaser, much like last year's Plane was but on a larger scale.

Preview totals:
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare $1.45 mil (includes $600k from Saturday previews)
Abigail $1 mil
Spy x Family Code: White $670k

Looks like Abigail has ended Radio Silence's hot streak. And between this and Night Swim, could Universal be rethinking horror? It feels like those two weren't pushed very hard (and the latter's general reception didn't help things).

Not a chance. Horror is the easiest profit a studio can make when the budgets are low enough (the combined production cost of Night Swim and Abigail was $43 mil-which includes an undisclosed increase in Abigail's budget due to it being mid-shoot when the SAG strike started) and outside of The Exorcist: Believer, they haven't really gotten burned on anything recently.

How do you explain the current push towards Universal making David Leitch their new golden boy then? It feels as if they want to get away from Jason Blum's type of movie as they usually don't have full ownership of them and the losses of The Exorcist will be felt for some time as any slight profit they'll get from a Night Swim or Abigail is going to get eaten up by those losses.

In addition, Blumhouse only just announced plans for a Five Nights at Freddy's sequel. This should have had a date as soon as the first film opened.

While I'm no Hollywood insider, I'm fairly confident that David Leitch wasn't named the shadow CEO of Universal because their releasing 1 movie he directed and 1 movie he produced over the next 9 months and will not have any say in what kind of movies they elect to make moving forward.

Cinemascore:

Spy x Family: A
Ministry...: A-
Abigail: B

Weekend Estimates:
Civil War $11.1 mil
Abigail $10.2 mil
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire $9.5 mil
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare $9 mil
Spy x Family Code: White $4.9 mil
Kung Fu Panda 4 $4.6 mil
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire $4.4 mil
Dune: Part Two $2.9 mil
Monkey Man $2.2 mil
The First Omen $1.7 mil

PTA:
Stress Positions $28k
The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare $3.2k
Abigail $3k
Civil War $2.8k
Godzilla x Kong $2.6k

No word on Egoist or We Grown Now yet, but those numbers should be coming in shortly

I thought about doing a double feature with Civil War and Abigail, but decided that it'd probably be too much for one day. Plus I wasn't really in the right mood for something as bleak and unrelenting as CW probably is. I may wait that one out honestly.

Sasquatch Sunset bombed in its wide expansion, making only $453,000 in 856 theatres. This would have made more sense as a day-and-date title.

And while it looks like Civil War will surpass our expectations, it looks to still be a big money loser as its international start hasn't been the most promising. In addition, A24 sold off the international rights before release, even in the UK, where A24 has its own theatrical division. By my very basic estimates, the film will need to make a minimum of $250 million worldwide ($50 million production budget plus at least $50 million in marketing and DCP production costs times 2.5) to break even. It probably only hits half that.

I'm pretty sure A24 doesn't need that much to break even. Don't forget to take into account the money A24 makes by selling the international rights, and they are known for asking A LOT of money when they sell their films. They're taking a big check and don't have to spend any money on the territories they sell, so it's a winning situation for them.

Agreed with the French dog.

And even if they did, theoretically, do a global release themselves, it would need a lot less than $250m to break even as a production, because of the value of non-theatrical sales. A film like this could make up to $100m for that alone.

But seeing how A24 was viewing this film as the one that was put them on the map as a major, it still was rather foolish to sell the international rights. It reminds me of a lot of when New Line sold the international rights to the Lord of the Rings trilogy and lost out on millions, money that could have kept them from having to merge with Warner Bros. after the failure of The Golden Compass.