Screening The Releases - March 15th

[Screen203]

Last Week

At number one we have a bit of a surprise, as Kung Fu Panda 4 overperformed its expectations, grossing almost 58 m. I believe that the drought of family films in the marketplace is helping significantly here, as well as goodwill from Puss In Boots: The Last Wish. Despite the heavy competition for familes with older kids (Arthur The King, Ghostbusters, and Godzilla X Kong in the next few weekends), Kung Fu Panda will skew a bit younger (though it's skewing older than I expected), and this should help it get closer to 200 m. Even if it has weak legs, this (along with Dune: Part Two) are great news for the struggling marketplace. Speaking of Dune, it had a great hold, dropping just 44 percent to gross about 46 m. It seems to be really catching on in the public consciousness, and while 300 m is probably out of reach, it should be able to get to 280-290 m. In third, Imaginary opened to an okay number just below 10 m. While I was expecting more considering the drought of horror in the marketplace, it should make a decent profit for Lionsgate/Blumhouse in spite of very poor reception. In total, it should reach about 25 m. In fourth, Cabrini opened to about 7 m. Legs are difficult to predict for religious films, but this is an okay debut and will probably also get it to 20-25 m. Rounding out the Top 5, Bob Marley: One Love dropped 45 percent, grossing 4 m. While legs for it haven't been great, it should still cross 100 m.

On the PTA side, Love Lies Bleeding is the top grosser. It grossed 33.5 k in 5 theaters, which is a solid start that fits into the range A24 genre films seem to reach in limited debuts. It will likely reach around 10 m in total. In second was the number one film at the box office, Kung Fu Panda 4. It grossed about 14 k per theater in over 4,000 theaters. In third was the number two film this weekend, Dune: Part Two, which grossed about 11 k per theater in over 4,000 locations. In fourth is Problemista in its second weekend, expanding to 20 theaters and grossing about 10 k. In fifth (in the game) is Imaginary, which grossed about 3 k in over 3,000 theaters.

This Week

Arthur The King



This should be able to do okay numbers, though nowhere close to Dog from 2022. The competition for families may hurt it, but it probably has appeal to the older audiences that flocked to The Boys In The Boat a few months back. Mark Wahlberg is still a recognizable face, and inspirational sports movies typically do better than the more downbeat ones (though The Iron Claw did pretty decent business last year). Reviews have been okay so far, though I'm not sure marketing has been strong enough to break through the crowd. That being said, it should have strong legs.

I expect an OW of 10 m, and a total of 35 m.

It will get you 4 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

It is probably an okay choice in both Box Office and Ultimate, though the lack of PTA points may hurt it.

The American Society



I don't see much for this. This had pretty poor reception out of Sundance, and the reception to the trailers hasn't been very good either. In addition, both Focus Features releases and comedies have struggled as of late, and I don't see this doing much to change that. I am surprised it is going wide - I expected a 500-600 theater release, but I don't think the extra theaters will change much.

I expect an OW of 2 m, and a total of 5 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

One Life



This should do a bit better than the previous title, but probably won't break out either. Reviews have been very strong, at the very least, and Anthony Hopkins (who had a bit of awards buzz for this, before it moved to this date/was acquired by Bleecker Street) adds a solid name to it. That being said, it is still a pretty small release.

I expect an OW of 2 m, and a total of 6 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

On The Adamant



I'm not sure this will do that well outside of very limited release, despite the rave reviews it has received. Documentaries have had a rough run as of late, and Kino Lorber releases typically don't do much to begin with.

I expect an OW PTA of about 10 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 4-6 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, and think before you take it in Ultimate.

Ryuichi Sakamoto Opus



This should do similarly to the film above. The only thing that makes me think it will do a bit better is that it is focused on the arts, and arts-themed documentaries typically do better than those not based in the arts.

I expect an OW PTA of 12 k, and a total under 1 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 5-8 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

I would take this in Ultimate, instead of On The Adamant. Don't take it in Box Office.

I do not believe DogMan is being released this weekend.

Top 5

Kung Fu Panda 4 - 30 m
Dune: Part Two - 30 m
Arthur The King - 10 m
Cabrini - 4 m
Imaginary - 4 m

PTA

Ryuichi Sakamoto Opus - 12 k
On The Adamant - 10 k
Kung Fu Panda 4 - 8 k
Dune: Part Two - 8 k
Problemista - 3 k

Next Week

Join six for a look over Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire and Immaculate, as well as a few limited releases.

[transformers2]

Dogman did indeed get delayed. It's now set to release on the 29th before breaking wide on April 5th.

Agree with most of your predictions, although I think Arthur the King could get up to 13-15 mil if the walk up business is strong enough

[Buscemi2]

Dogman's opening on April 12th in my area. For some bizarre reason, they're doing pre-sales even though I can't imagine anyone being excited by a new Luc Besson film that's been destroyed by critics.

As for Arthur the King, I think it goes lower. It's been on the shelf for a while, it was intended as a streaming title before Paramount dropped it, and does anyone in 2024 care about Bear Gryllis being in a movie. In addition, audiences don't really seem to be interested in inspirational narcissist Mark Wahlberg in the way they cared about action movie narcissist Mark Wahlberg.

[transformers2]

Arthur the King made $825k from previews.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Kung Fu Panda 4 $30 mil
Dune: Part Two $29.1 mil
Arthur the King $7.5 mil
Imaginary $5.6 mil
Cabrini $2.8 mil
Love Lies Bleeding $2.5 mil
Bob Marley: One Love $2.3 mil
One Life $1.7 mil
The American Society of Magical Negroes $1.3 mil
Ordinary Angels $1 mil

PTA:
Ryuchi Sakomato|Opus $11.3k
Dune: Part Two $7.6k
Kung Fu Panda 4 $7.4k
Problemista $3.8k
Arthur the King $2.5k

Quick note: On the Admant was quietly moved to the 29th earlier this month.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Kung Fu Panda 4 $30.1 mil
2.Dune: Part Two $28.5 mil
3.Arthur the King $7.6 mil
4.Imaginary $5.5 mil
5.Cabrini $2.8 mil
6.Love Lies Bleeding $2.5 mil
7.Bob Marley: One Love $2.3 mil
8.One Life $1.7 mil
9.The American Society of Magical Negroes $1.3 mil
10.Ordinary Angels $942,488

-Ryuichi Sakamoto|Opus $11,293

PTA:
1.Ryuichi Sakmoto|Opus $11,293
2.Kung Fu Panda 4 $7,413
3.Dune: Part Two $7,410
4.Problemista $3,729 (63 theaters)
5.Arthur the King $2,542

-One Life $1,743
-The American Society of Magical Negroes $1,137