Screening The Releases - December 22nd

[Screen203]

Last Week

Wonka had a solid debut, grossing 39 m this weekend. With solid reviews and audience reception, strong legs over the holidays should follow. In second, The Hunger Games... continued it's solid run, dropping just 37 percent from last weekend to gross almost 6 m, for a total of 145 m so far. In third, The Boy And The Heron grossed 5.5 m, dropping 58 percent to gross 23 m so far to become the highest-grossing Hayao Miyazaki film in the US. In fourth, Godzilla: Minus One grossed 5 m, dropping 41 percent to gross 34 m so far. In fifth, Trolls Band Together dropped 35 percent to gross almost 4 m, for a total so far of almost 89 m. With the holidays coming up, all of these films should be able to have some solid days if they can hang on to screens. In seventh, Christmas With The Chosen: Holy Night grossed about 3 m over the 3-day for a total of nearly 5 m so far.

Things were a bit more eventful in the specialty market. American Fiction and The Zone Of Interest both had solid openings, with the former grossing 32 k per each of its 7 theaters and the latter grossing a PTA of 31 k in 4 theaters. American Fiction will probably expand better than The Zone Of Interest, though not a bad opening for either considering the expectations for both and challenges in screen space. Poor Things expanded solidly, grossing almost a average of 16 k in 82 theaters, for a gross over 1 m and a total so far of 2 m. Fourth and fifth in terms of PTA went to Wonka (9 k) and The Boy And The Heron (2 k).

This Week

Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom



It is finally here, and it looks like relative disaster is imminent. Reviews have been pretty poor so far, but with the bad buzz around this, I guess it was to be expected. There seems to be no excitement whatsoever for the conclusion to the DCEU despite the success of the first. While the holidays should help a little bit, it seems pretty certain this is going to lose money for Warner Bros. At this point, they are probably relieved the tumultuous extended universe has reached its conclusion.

I expect an OW of 25 m, and a total of 90 m.

It will get you 10-15 Top 5 points, 2 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

For such a large-profile title, not worth taking in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Migration



I'm not sure this will do too much better, though reviews are better than Aquaman. In spite of being produced by the typically-reliable Illumination, the marketing has been relatively small-scale. The biggest issue I think it will face is that it looks rather generic, without a specific hook to grab audiences when there is heavy competition in Wonka for the same audience. That being said, it should have good WOM, and strong legs over the holidays.

I expect an OW of 15 m, and a total of 100 m.

It will get you 12-17 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

It may be an okay choice in both Box Office and Ultimate, but for the holiday releases, I would have chosen Wonka instead.

Anyone But You



Depending on reviews, this may actually do okay. When the first marketing for this debuted in October, it felt like it was a lock to completely tank. Reception was very poor to the trailer for the romantic comedy that didn't give much of anything to go on in terms of story, jokes, etc. Since then, I think Sony has righted the ship a little bit. The second trailer released a month later actually seemed to sell the movie, and a publicity stunt of sorts - a cross-promotion with the Showtime series The Curse - kept it in the public eye. In some ways, it reminds me of Second Act from 2018 - romantic comedy/dramedy that starts out slow, but gets solid legs after the holidays.

I expect an OW of 6 m and a total of 35 m.

I expect 3 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

It could be an okay choice in Box Office. Don't take it in Ultimate.

The Iron Claw



Though this has reviewed positively so far, I think it will probably be too bleak of a film to appeal outside of a niche audience. That being said, A24's wide releases have a pretty solid range as to where they end up, and I expect this to follow suit.

I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 18 m.

I expect 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

All Of Us Strangers



This should start out pretty well in limited release. To say that there is buzz around Paul Mescal at the moment would be an understatement, and Andrew Haigh has built a solid following (in particular, his show Looking has a strong cult following). Reviews have also been among the best of the year. One thing that could hold it back a bit is screen space. This will be fighting with a lot of films aiming for a similar audience, and this may hurt it during its OW. That being said, no matter what it does in limited release, I'm not sure it will do super well in wide release.

I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a total of 5 m.

It will get you 5-8 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

Freud's Last Session



This one has an interesting concept, but I don't think it's likely to do super well. Reviews have just been okay, and there is a lot of competition for the target audience. In addition, Sony Pictures Classics has had a difficult time crossing over into the mainstream lately.

I expect an OW PTA of 20 k, and a total of 3 m.

It will get you 4 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Note - Titles 4 and 5 are not in either game.

Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom - 25 m
Wonka - 20 m
Anyone But You - 6 m
Salaar: Part 1 Ceasefire - 5 m
Dunki - 5 m

PTA

All Of Us Strangers - 30 k
Freud's Last Session - 20 k
American Fiction
The Zone Of Interest
Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom

Next Week

Join transformers for a look over the Christmas releases, including The Color Purple, Ferrari, and The Boys In The Boat.

Until then, happy holidays everyone! I will get the January dates up later today.

[Buscemi2]

Anyone but You looks like the flop of the Christmas season not named Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom. There's been almost no marketing, the trailers make it look like an After sequel, and Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell are not draws. And yet, Sony decided this needed to be their big Christmas movie instead of something like the long-delayed but wider appealed Harold and the Purple Crayon.

I don't even think it hits $20 million total.

And I think The Iron Claw's going to have a hard time taking off. There's not a lot of wrestling for fans and the Von Erich story might be too niche for non-fans.

[numbersix]

I'd be surprised to see Freud's Last Session having any impact on the PTA front. Indie films with middling reviews tend to bomb.

I'm hoping Aquaman 2 fails, and ends the DCU forever

[transformers2]

Aquaman 2 is absolutely going to fail and the current DCEU will die with it, but James Gunn and Peter Safran are going to get a chance to plant the seeds for their retooled version regardless.

As for Anyone But You being the "bomb of the season", its budget is at least 8.2x less than Aquaman's, so that's not even mathematically possible.

[Buscemi2]

Warner Bros. just needs to give the DC properties to Amazon. That animated movie with Batman's son's supposed to be good.

As for "bomb of the Christmas season", I said "not named Aquaman" right after.

[StarLord123]

The only real marketing for Aquaman 2 that I've seen is the trailer in movie theaters, it's almost like this movie doesn't exist outside of a theater. WB clearly doesn't give a damn about it, and they're just dumping it so they can move on to their fancy new universe. I've seen every DCEU entry in theaters except for Birds of Prey and WW1984 (the latter due to Covid theater closures), so I might as well show up for the finale. My expectations aren't exactly high, but hopefully it's at least somewhat entertaining.

[transformers2]

Warner Bros. just needs to give the DC properties to Amazon. That animated movie with Batman's son's supposed to be good.

As for "bomb of the Christmas season", I said "not named Aquaman" right after.

Shit, my bad. Still, it's really hard for a wide major studio release with a $25 mil budget to truly bomb and I don't think there's anyway this movie has a final gross in the single digits.

[Screen203]

I think the film that loses the most money this holiday season (besides Aquaman) will likely be Ferrari. It has a nearly 100 m budget and seems likely to do a fourth or less of that in the US, though it should do better overseas. I can't imagine the individual distributors will lose that much on it, but STX will probably lose a lot on it.

[Buscemi2]

I'm pretty sure STX has pretty much written it off, as after this film and Firebrand, they have only one remaining project (a My Spy sequel that's being released by MGM next year). I'm convinced the company is going to shut down in the next few months.

[transformers2]

Preview totals:
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $4.5 mil (Better than Fury of the Gods' $3.4 mil and Blue Beetle's $3.3, but still considerably lower than The Marvels' $6.6 mil)
Migration $1.5 mil
Anyone But You $1.2 mil
The Iron Claw $670k

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

Migration: A
The Iron Claw: A-
Anyone but You: B+
Aquaman: B

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $28.1 mil
Wonka $17.7 mil
Migration $12.3 mil
Anyone But You $6.2 mil
Salaar: Part One $5.5 mil
The Iron Claw $5.1 mil
The Boy and the Heron/The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $3.2 mil
Godzilla Minus One $2.8 mil
Dunki $2.6 mil

PTA:
All of Us Strangers $33k
The Zone of Interest $15k
Freud's Last Session $9.1k
Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $7.6k
Wonka $4.2k

Amazon appears to be withholding their estimates until after Christmas as neither American Fiction or Saltburn are on the charts

[Buscemi2]

Saltburn is now on Prime so it's more than likely no longer reporting.

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $27.7 mil
2.Wonka $18.1 mil
3.Migration $12.5 mil
4.Anyone But You $6 mil
5.Salaar: Part 1 $5.6 mil
6.The Iron Claw $4.9 mil
7.The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes $3 mil
8.The Boy and the Heron $2.8 mil
9.Dunki $2.7 mil
10.Godzilla: Minus One $2.6 mil

-All of Us Strangers $117,965
-Freud's Last Session $36,053

PTA:
1.All of Us Strangers $29,491 (4 theaters)
2.The Zone of Interest $13,789 (6 theaters)
3.American Fiction $10,730 (40 theaters)
4.Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom $7,471
5.Freud's Last Session $7,211 (5 theaters)