SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/15
Posted: December 12th, 2023, 6:03 am
Just when you think you know a domestic box office, and enjoys its company while using incognito browsers to watch very specialised and illicit websites of sultry, foreign box office, good ol USA surprises you. Two weeks ago Godzilla Minus One became the most successful live-action Japanese-language film in the US box office, and then last week the latest Studio Ghibli film, and possibly the last by its visionary Hiyao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron topped the box-office and will be the most successful Ghibli film to date. On top of that, the latest pic by Greek weirdo Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things, opened to a superb PTA, and aims to perform well as it expands wide this weekend. This, my friends, is the sexy cheerleader outfit of US cinema distribution. But of course, it was a quiet weekend, and now things are heating up for winter.
Oompa loompa doompety doo, I’ve got an unconvincing franchise for you
A faltering Hollywood continues to find ways to milk established IP, regardless of audience interest or not. And so we have Wonka (Warner Bros), a prequel to the beloved 70s Roald Dahl adaptation. Which, you may be surprised to hear, was a massive bomb on its release, and only became the cherished Christmas flick when it hit TV. Anyway, this is the story of the origins of the factory we all know we want to visit (besides diabetics. But no one wants them). Gen Y’s favourite twink Timothée Chalamet plays the titular character, although many claim Hugh Grant, as the first Oompa Loompa Wonka encounters, steals the show.
Indeed, reviews have been strong, with many comparing it favourably to director Paul King’s and writer Simon Farnaby’s Paddington films, and less so Tim Burton’s hideous remake of the original (which, admittedly was a financial success, making $200 domestic). While there’s not a huge amount of buzz or anticipation about this film, I’ve a suspicion this may be the Christmas hit. It’s clearly 4-quadrant, isn’t a tired superhero movie featuring a possibly unfairly maligned actress, or an animated movie that has failed to garner any interest. That doesn’t mean it’s going to blow the box office up this weekend, but expect good WOM to keep families returning across silly season. Some are a predicting a 40-50m opening, but I’m going to presume mid-30s, with an excellent hold across the month and into January. Expect $150m in the end, which I think will be more than what Aquaman 2 will squirt out. That’s not great for $31 in Box Office, though, but as your tentpole pick it might just work. In Ultimate expect 10 T5 points, 4 PTA, and a mid 6 IMDB score. Again, not amazing in Ultimate and Aquaman 2 may get you a similar score in all but BO, so beware the chocolate man.
During the summer we had Barbenheimer, and this Xmas we have Zone of Fiction, the battle of arthouse titans.
American Fiction (MGM) is a satire about an African American scribe who decides to write a stereotypical book only to obtain fame he never imagined. Starring Jeffrey Wright, and directed by Cord Jefferson, this is the little film that possibly can. It won the Audience Award in Toronto, which usually results in widespread success (even films as bad as Green Book), and plenty of award wins. And while this well-reviewed film does look appealing on every (Ultimate) level, it’s strangely not as buzzy as some of the other indies this year, such as Poor Things. Opening in around 10 theatres this weekend, it’s going to do well, but $5 in Ultimate and $4 in BO feel a tad too high, unless you feel it will blow up and make $25m +.
On the other hand, The Zone of Interest (A24) is a cert for Ultimate. Jonathan Glazer’s (of Under the Skin and Sexy Beast) latest deals with a family with a Nazi at the top of the table, enjoying their lives despite the concentration camp next door. It’s a cold, stark, brutal film, that will leave every viewer deeply uncomfortable. It received rave reviews and has won many awards, and was robbed of the prized Palm D’Or award in Cannes, in my humble opinion. With hipsters-turned-moguls A24 pushing it, and its theatres count of 4, this should win the weekend, and scrape a few more for us curmudgeons lacking in any Christmas spirit. It should expand slower than American Fiction, which goes wide next week, making it a better Ultimate pick with 7-8 PTA points, $5m in BO, and a mid-7 IMDB score. Achtung! Nab it!
Predictions for the weekend
1. Wonka - $35m
2. The Boy and the Heron - $6m
3. The Hunger Games Minus 5 - $5m
4. Godzilla Minus One - $4.5m
5. Keep on Trolling - $4m
PTA: The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, Wonka, Poor Things, Origin (if it’s still playing)
Next week sees the Christmas cheer spread throughout our cinemas, with three wide releases (Aquaman 2, Migration, and Anyone But you), and All Of Us Stranger, and The Iron Claw (which may go wide) getting limited releases.
Oompa loompa doompety doo, I’ve got an unconvincing franchise for you
A faltering Hollywood continues to find ways to milk established IP, regardless of audience interest or not. And so we have Wonka (Warner Bros), a prequel to the beloved 70s Roald Dahl adaptation. Which, you may be surprised to hear, was a massive bomb on its release, and only became the cherished Christmas flick when it hit TV. Anyway, this is the story of the origins of the factory we all know we want to visit (besides diabetics. But no one wants them). Gen Y’s favourite twink Timothée Chalamet plays the titular character, although many claim Hugh Grant, as the first Oompa Loompa Wonka encounters, steals the show.
Indeed, reviews have been strong, with many comparing it favourably to director Paul King’s and writer Simon Farnaby’s Paddington films, and less so Tim Burton’s hideous remake of the original (which, admittedly was a financial success, making $200 domestic). While there’s not a huge amount of buzz or anticipation about this film, I’ve a suspicion this may be the Christmas hit. It’s clearly 4-quadrant, isn’t a tired superhero movie featuring a possibly unfairly maligned actress, or an animated movie that has failed to garner any interest. That doesn’t mean it’s going to blow the box office up this weekend, but expect good WOM to keep families returning across silly season. Some are a predicting a 40-50m opening, but I’m going to presume mid-30s, with an excellent hold across the month and into January. Expect $150m in the end, which I think will be more than what Aquaman 2 will squirt out. That’s not great for $31 in Box Office, though, but as your tentpole pick it might just work. In Ultimate expect 10 T5 points, 4 PTA, and a mid 6 IMDB score. Again, not amazing in Ultimate and Aquaman 2 may get you a similar score in all but BO, so beware the chocolate man.
During the summer we had Barbenheimer, and this Xmas we have Zone of Fiction, the battle of arthouse titans.
American Fiction (MGM) is a satire about an African American scribe who decides to write a stereotypical book only to obtain fame he never imagined. Starring Jeffrey Wright, and directed by Cord Jefferson, this is the little film that possibly can. It won the Audience Award in Toronto, which usually results in widespread success (even films as bad as Green Book), and plenty of award wins. And while this well-reviewed film does look appealing on every (Ultimate) level, it’s strangely not as buzzy as some of the other indies this year, such as Poor Things. Opening in around 10 theatres this weekend, it’s going to do well, but $5 in Ultimate and $4 in BO feel a tad too high, unless you feel it will blow up and make $25m +.
On the other hand, The Zone of Interest (A24) is a cert for Ultimate. Jonathan Glazer’s (of Under the Skin and Sexy Beast) latest deals with a family with a Nazi at the top of the table, enjoying their lives despite the concentration camp next door. It’s a cold, stark, brutal film, that will leave every viewer deeply uncomfortable. It received rave reviews and has won many awards, and was robbed of the prized Palm D’Or award in Cannes, in my humble opinion. With hipsters-turned-moguls A24 pushing it, and its theatres count of 4, this should win the weekend, and scrape a few more for us curmudgeons lacking in any Christmas spirit. It should expand slower than American Fiction, which goes wide next week, making it a better Ultimate pick with 7-8 PTA points, $5m in BO, and a mid-7 IMDB score. Achtung! Nab it!
Predictions for the weekend
1. Wonka - $35m
2. The Boy and the Heron - $6m
3. The Hunger Games Minus 5 - $5m
4. Godzilla Minus One - $4.5m
5. Keep on Trolling - $4m
PTA: The Zone of Interest, American Fiction, Wonka, Poor Things, Origin (if it’s still playing)
Next week sees the Christmas cheer spread throughout our cinemas, with three wide releases (Aquaman 2, Migration, and Anyone But you), and All Of Us Stranger, and The Iron Claw (which may go wide) getting limited releases.