SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/10
Posted: November 7th, 2023, 4:50 am
And…. We’re back.
With last week being left to the leftovers of Halloween season, and blockbusters bolting to next year when the actors’ strike will be over (spoiler alert: it’s looking like it’ll end this week), it’s time to inject a little excitement back into the box office. Sadly, little is about the most you’ll get, as you’ll see below.
Two new films open wide this weekend, though worth pointing out Alex Payne’s The Holdovers has, well, held over well and should open wide this weekend. Anyone who heeded my unreliable advice a few weeks ago and picked it up, should be happy with the Ultimate winner.
I am more excited about The Marvels (Disney) than anyone else. Not because I’ve any interest in the stretched out, spaghettified MCU, but rather because this is another nail in the coffin of the franchise which has long outstayed its welcome. The Marvels is of course the sequel to Captain Marvel, the hit introduction to the overpowered titular character. After a few appearances, including the Avengers films, the captain pairs up with Monica Rambeau (Teyonah Parris) of Wandavision and Kamala Khan (Iman Vellani of Ms Marvel) to battle whatever alien sub-boss Disney have concocted until they figure out what to do about Jonathan Majors’s real-life villainy. A couple of years ago, this would be a sure-fire hit. But audiences are cooling off the MCU, with the TV series have more success than the movies. Sure, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 was a hit, but Ant-Man 3 bombed, and alongside Eternals and Shang-Chi, it seems fans are dwindling if Spider-man is absent.
A few months ago, even a conservative estimate would have seen this sequel show diminishing returns and earn half of the first film’s $426m domestic intake. However, tracking has been getting increasingly gloomy. There’s not much buzz about this film, and the cast can’t even get out there and drum up a lightning storm. 2021’s Eternals is a good comparison, which opened to $71m and finished with $164m. I expect The Marvels, which is the shortest Marvel movie to date, to earn less up front but hold a little better, let’s say around $50m and hit maybe $150m tops. In Ultimate that would get a mid 6s IMDB score, 4-5 PTA points, and 12 or so T5 points. Unfortunately, the film was priced like a backbone of your slate, so for $39 in Ultimate and $45 in BO, you will get better value by picking up two mid-range films, like Wish or Migration. Avoid.
There’s not much mileage in Journey to Bethlehem (Sony), a musical centred on the Biblical story of the Nativity, starring Antonio Banderas as King Herod. Of course, Angel Studios impressed by rallying its Christian audience to make Sound of Freedom a hit. This feels a little less grass-rootsy, and more a cheap cash-in. It’s also a tad early for Santa Season. It’s unlikely this film will open above the $10m mark, or earn beyond $30m, and given its $9 tag you’re better off putting your faith in Willy Wonka.
Dream Scenario (A24) is another way to confuse us all about Nicholas Cage. Just when we all wrote him off as an OTT cartoon of an actor, he turns up in films like Pig and actually acts well. And here we are again, with another indie darling. Kristoffer Borgli‘s latest is a Kaufmann-like story about a uni professor who seems to seems to pop up in everyone’s dreams. This quirky pic has been getting great reviews when it premiered in TIFF, and it’s the exact kind of film A24 can push to success. It’s out in around 5 theatres this weekend, so it should take the PTA crown, with maybe 1-2 next week as it expands, and could earn $5-10m by the end of its run. It may not be the best limited film for your slate this season, but it will deliver.
Finally, Orlando: My Political Biography (Slideshow) is the kind of high-brow arthouse film that could fare well on a quiet weekend, but at best you’re going to get 3 PTA points, and probably a low IMDB score considering now bro-tastic that site has become. This experimental doc, based on various trans people embracing Virginia Woolf’s iconic novel, probably isn’t worth the risk.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Marvel-less - $50m
2. [Not sure if the Taylor Swift show is going beyond its 4-week run. If it is, it should make 8.5m for 2nd place]
2. 5 Sequels for Freddy- $8m
3. Prancing to Bethlehem - $7m
4. How to Hold Over - $5m
5. Cracker Killers of the Flower Moon - $4m
PTA: Dream Scenario, The Marvels, Orlando, Radical, Journey to Bethlehem
And next week the competition heats up with three wide releases: A Hunger Games prequel, a Trolls sequel, and a Thanksgiving-themed horror, as well as potential arthouse hits Saltburn, Next Goal Wins, and Fallen Leaves. Screen will give you the low-down.
With last week being left to the leftovers of Halloween season, and blockbusters bolting to next year when the actors’ strike will be over (spoiler alert: it’s looking like it’ll end this week), it’s time to inject a little excitement back into the box office. Sadly, little is about the most you’ll get, as you’ll see below.
Two new films open wide this weekend, though worth pointing out Alex Payne’s The Holdovers has, well, held over well and should open wide this weekend. Anyone who heeded my unreliable advice a few weeks ago and picked it up, should be happy with the Ultimate winner.
I am more excited about The Marvels (Disney) than anyone else. Not because I’ve any interest in the stretched out, spaghettified MCU, but rather because this is another nail in the coffin of the franchise which has long outstayed its welcome. The Marvels is of course the sequel to Captain Marvel, the hit introduction to the overpowered titular character. After a few appearances, including the Avengers films, the captain pairs up with Monica Rambeau (Teyonah Parris) of Wandavision and Kamala Khan (Iman Vellani of Ms Marvel) to battle whatever alien sub-boss Disney have concocted until they figure out what to do about Jonathan Majors’s real-life villainy. A couple of years ago, this would be a sure-fire hit. But audiences are cooling off the MCU, with the TV series have more success than the movies. Sure, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 was a hit, but Ant-Man 3 bombed, and alongside Eternals and Shang-Chi, it seems fans are dwindling if Spider-man is absent.
A few months ago, even a conservative estimate would have seen this sequel show diminishing returns and earn half of the first film’s $426m domestic intake. However, tracking has been getting increasingly gloomy. There’s not much buzz about this film, and the cast can’t even get out there and drum up a lightning storm. 2021’s Eternals is a good comparison, which opened to $71m and finished with $164m. I expect The Marvels, which is the shortest Marvel movie to date, to earn less up front but hold a little better, let’s say around $50m and hit maybe $150m tops. In Ultimate that would get a mid 6s IMDB score, 4-5 PTA points, and 12 or so T5 points. Unfortunately, the film was priced like a backbone of your slate, so for $39 in Ultimate and $45 in BO, you will get better value by picking up two mid-range films, like Wish or Migration. Avoid.
There’s not much mileage in Journey to Bethlehem (Sony), a musical centred on the Biblical story of the Nativity, starring Antonio Banderas as King Herod. Of course, Angel Studios impressed by rallying its Christian audience to make Sound of Freedom a hit. This feels a little less grass-rootsy, and more a cheap cash-in. It’s also a tad early for Santa Season. It’s unlikely this film will open above the $10m mark, or earn beyond $30m, and given its $9 tag you’re better off putting your faith in Willy Wonka.
Dream Scenario (A24) is another way to confuse us all about Nicholas Cage. Just when we all wrote him off as an OTT cartoon of an actor, he turns up in films like Pig and actually acts well. And here we are again, with another indie darling. Kristoffer Borgli‘s latest is a Kaufmann-like story about a uni professor who seems to seems to pop up in everyone’s dreams. This quirky pic has been getting great reviews when it premiered in TIFF, and it’s the exact kind of film A24 can push to success. It’s out in around 5 theatres this weekend, so it should take the PTA crown, with maybe 1-2 next week as it expands, and could earn $5-10m by the end of its run. It may not be the best limited film for your slate this season, but it will deliver.
Finally, Orlando: My Political Biography (Slideshow) is the kind of high-brow arthouse film that could fare well on a quiet weekend, but at best you’re going to get 3 PTA points, and probably a low IMDB score considering now bro-tastic that site has become. This experimental doc, based on various trans people embracing Virginia Woolf’s iconic novel, probably isn’t worth the risk.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Marvel-less - $50m
2. [Not sure if the Taylor Swift show is going beyond its 4-week run. If it is, it should make 8.5m for 2nd place]
2. 5 Sequels for Freddy- $8m
3. Prancing to Bethlehem - $7m
4. How to Hold Over - $5m
5. Cracker Killers of the Flower Moon - $4m
PTA: Dream Scenario, The Marvels, Orlando, Radical, Journey to Bethlehem
And next week the competition heats up with three wide releases: A Hunger Games prequel, a Trolls sequel, and a Thanksgiving-themed horror, as well as potential arthouse hits Saltburn, Next Goal Wins, and Fallen Leaves. Screen will give you the low-down.