Screening The Releases - October 13th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Looks like Universal/Blumhouse overspent quite a bit on the Exorcist rights. The Exorcist: Believer debuted to about 26.5 m over the 3-day, and almost 29 m over the 4-day Indigenous People's Day holiday; while is not a terrible number in a vaccum, given the history of Exorcist sequels, it was extremely front-loaded and seems poised to collapse this weekend, not to mention the 400 m price tag for the franchise rights. I am very curious to see if they go through with the planned sequel. In second, last weekend's winner Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie had kind of a rough drop for an animated film, dropping 50 percent to gross 11 m over the 3-day, and about 14 m over the 4-day, for a total so far of almost 41 m. In spite of its drop, it is probably fairly low-budget and should turn a profit for Paramount in the end before it moves on to the real revenue stream post-theatrically. In third, Saw X had an okay drop by the series's infamously front-loaded standards, dropping 57 percent to gross almost 8 m over the 3-day, and just about 9 m over the 4-day, for a total of just under 35 m m so far. In fourth, The Creator failed to gain any legs after its poor opening, dropping 56 percent to gross about 6 m over the 3-day, and 7 m over the 4-day, for a total so far of 27.5 m. In fifth, another surprise religious hit, The Blind, dropped only 27 percent to gross about 3 m over the 3-day, and 3.5 over the 4-day, for a total of almost 11 m so far. Outside the Top 5, the wide expansion of Dumb Money held well, but not well enough. It dropped 36 percent to gross 2 m over the 3-day, and 2.5 m over the 4-day, for a total approaching 11 m so far.

Most limited releases this weekend didn't fare great. By far, the release with the highest PTA was Dicks: The Musical, which grossed about 200 k over the 3-day, for a PTA of about 31.5 k (4-day estimates were not provided for many of these films). While A24's audience and Megan Thee Stallion's first starring role gave it a strong opening, I am not convinced it will do great in expansion - a total of around 5 m seems likely, IMO. Joan Baez: I Am A Noise grossed about 11 k from 2 theaters (for a total of 21 k), which probably won't hold up in expansion. The Exorcist: Believer (with a 3-day PTA of 7 k, and a 4-day PTA of 8 k), Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie (with a 3-day PTA of almost 3 k, and a 4-day PTA of 3.5 k), and Saw X (The Blind I do not believe is a part of the game) grossed 2.5 k over the 3-day, and 3 k over the 4-day. The other high-profile limited releases fared relatively poorly - The Royal Hotel grossed around 300 k over the 3-day, Strange Way Of Life grossed almost 200 k over the 3-day, and When Evil Lurks grossed 200 k over the 3-day. All of them had PTA below 1.5 k.

This Week

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour

(I could not find a trailer for this - I put a TV spot instead)



I don't think I need to tell anyone that this will be huge. Taylor Swift is probably the biggest living singer in the US, if not the world, at the moment, and the tour this is a filmed version of was massive. Ticket sales broke records on the day they were announced, and hype has only grown since then. The biggest question, however, is how front-loaded it will be. While the hype for the film has arguably increased since its announcement, ticket sales have tapered off a bit after the massive start. In addition, it being a concert film means it will likely not attract many who are not fans of Swift. Another question mark is the ticket pricing. The starting rate for tickets is 19.89, and will be more so with PLF/IMAX surcharges.

While it is very hard to pinpoint an exact number, it has sold over 100 m in tickets so far (though whether that is for OW, US total, or worldwide total was not specified). So I will put the OW of 100 m (I feel relatively comfortable saying that it should reach this number, but 10-15 less or more wouldn't surprise me), and a total of 200 m.

It will get you 5-8 PTA points, 15-25 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

I would absolutely recommend taking this in both Box Office and Ultimate.


Anatomy Of A Fall



This should be an easier film to predict. It gained a lot of buzz (in particular for the lead performance by Sandra Huller, who has had a very big year between this and The Zone Of Interest) after winning the Palme D'ior, which is a good sign even if it doesn't always lead to financial success. It seems like an easier sell than the past few winners, being a crime drama/thriller. That being said, I think that limitations in seating may hurt its PTA on OW, and the allegedly ambiguous nature of the plot may turn some off once it goes wider.

I expect an OW PTA of 30 k, and a total gross of 7 m.

It will get you 5-10 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it's not a bad choice in Ultimate.

Divinity



I'm not fully convinced this is releasing this weekend, but I don't expect much from it either way. While Steven Soderbergh's name and the unique visual style may draw some audiences in on OW, its rather mixed reviews won't help WOM much.

I expect an OW PTA of around 8 k, and a total of under 1 m.

It will get you 1-2 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Top 5

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour - 100 m
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie - 8 m
The Exorcist: Believer - 7 m
Saw X - 6 m
The Creator - 4 m

PTA

Anatomy Of A Fall - 30 k
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Dicks: The Musical
Joan Baez: I Am A Noise
Divinity

Next Week

Join transformers as he looks over the new releases, including Killers Of The Flower Moon.

In the meantime, could The Eras Tour be the highest-grossing release very few members here watch (I plan to see it sometime over the last two weeks of its release)?

[Buscemi2]

The Eras Tour will make all the money. The end.

[transformers2]

Divinity is opening in 1 theater in NYC this weekend before expanding to LA next weekend and nationwide on November 3rd. It would have more potential if it weren't opening alongside The Eras Tour and Anatomy of a Fall.

As for The Eras Tour, I think Sound of Freedom might take the cake for highest grossing movie that nobody here sees I don't like Swift's music enough to shell out $19.89 to see it in theaters, but I might watch it on streaming and just fast forward through the periods of her career I don't enjoy.

[Buscemi2]

Early reviews for The Eras Tour are among the best this year. However, I only think of Swift's music as okay. I mean, I'll listen to one of her songs when it comes on but I can't see myself listening to one of her albums in its entirety.

I'll stick to watching her in the luxury boxes in the weekly NFL highlight reels. You don't need to spend $20 for that.

As for Divinity, Bella Thorne is not a box office draw. There's a reason why fans only pay to see her on OnlyFans.

[Buscemi2]

Unsurprisingly, The Eras Tour got an A+ Cinemascore.

[numbersix]

Honestly, I don't get Swift. Her music is fine, but I can't remember any of her songs, despite trying to give her a chance due to the critical acclaim. I think she works as a representative of a type of contemporary mainstream music (traversing folk, country, and pop), rather than someone who stands out from it.

Interestingly, the current numbers show less than 100m for this weekend, despite the 65m in presales. So the rabid fans blew their loads, but anyone who isn't a devout Swiftie doesn't seem to be drawn into the cult. Wonder what next weekend will look like, perhaps there will be a major drop.

[Buscemi2]

Nearly every AMC showing on opening night near me sold out well in advance. However, the nearest Alamo Drafthouse didn't have a single sold out show before opening night. This seems to suggest The Eras Tour is skewing younger.

So maybe that weekends only arrangement made sense after all.

[Buscemi2]

The Eras Tour had a $39 million opening day so even with the A+ Cinemascore, it might only reach $80-85 million for the weekend.

It seems like once again, we overestimated the popularity of Taylor Swift in terms of her being in a movie.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $97 mil (AMC is reporting this figure, some industry pundits think it's at $94-$95)
The Exorcist: Believer $11 mil
Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie $7 mil
Saw X $5.7 mil
The Creator $4.3 mil
A Haunting in Venice $2.1 mil
The Blind $2 mil
The Nun II $1.6 mil
The Equalizer 3 $960k
Dumb Money $920k

-Anatomy of a Fall $125.4k
-Divinity $6k

PTA:
Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $25.2k
Anatomy of a Fall $25.1k
Dicks: The Musical $6.3k
Divinity $6k
The Exorcist: Believer $3k

[numbersix]

Given the preditions, the industry may label this a disappointment, but let's not be stupid - this is a trend-setting monument of BO - who else can achieve this??? Nobody.

[transformers2]

Completely agree. A $94-$97 mil OW for a concert movie is an incredible testament to Swift's starpower and it's a feat that could look even more impressive once the BO returns for Renaissance come in a month and a half from now.

[numbersix]

Correct, Bey's returns won't come close.

Aka, goddam you to hell Tranny

[Buscemi2]

I'm buying AMC's estimate. We all know nearly everyone in Kansas City went to see it this weekend.

[transformers2]

Correct, Bey's returns won't come close.

Aka, goddam you to hell Tranny

Curse Banks to hell too man! His burning of the top waiver claim made this whole situation possible!

[Walleye413]

I went on Sunday to Eras and it's really a ton of fun. More fun if you like her music, of course, which I will freely admit I do. But it's a great experience - done incredibly well. I bet it hits $200 million in the end. It is such a wildcard that predictions for it are still all over the map - but it's a gamechanger. And, much like Barbie and Oppie - I'm curious what lessons Hollywood will learn from it?