Tranny Tackles The Cinema: The Films of 7/12, 7/14

[transformers2]

Never doubt the staying power of certain horror franchises.

Riding high off the return of the full original cast for the first time in a decade, Insidious: The Red Door earned the best opening weekend in the quietly influential franchise since that very film (Insidious: Chapter 2) with a rock solid $33 mil. A questionable reception in line with the Patrick Wilson/Rose Byrne/Ty Simpkins-less sequels paired with the franchise's notoriously frontloaded nature should cap the level of excitement the brass over at Sony and Blumhouse are feeling right now, but it's a big victory nonetheless-especially when you factor in the film's relatively low $16 mil budget.

Of course, the other big story of the week came via the storm of right-wingers and their respective affiliated religious groups flocking to see Sound of Freedom. The film about the at best, greatly exaggerated efforts of ex-government agent Tim Ballard and his organization O.U.R (Operation Underground Railroad) to thwart child sex trafficking rings in Colombia racked up $19.7 mil over the weekend and has made nearly $41.7 mil since it opened on the Fourth of July. While the gross was boosted to an impossible-to-confirm degree by a “pay it forward” initiative that encouraged people to gift tickets to others, the movie made indisputable major waves among people that don't tend to go to the movies very often. Initially, it seemed like something that was going to drop like crazy after it tumbled hard from Tuesday to Wednesday last week, but its overperformance this weekend indicates that it might be able to stick around longer than expected. Kudos to Banks for being the only one among us that picked it in the game.

The other wide opener of the weekend didn't join the champagne-popping party as Joy Ride could only muster up a paltry $5.8 mil debut. Lionsgate had championed this movie pretty hard throughout the pre-release process starting back in March with its SXSW debut, but all those efforts to build WOM didn't translate to the box office at all and we're left with yet another R-rated comedy that failed to earn an audience despite a solid pedigree/reviews.

On the holdover front, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny followed-up its middling opening with a better-than-expected $27.4 mil sophomore frame (55% drop). Still with just $122.1 mil in the bank after 10 days of release (including a major holiday!), Dial of Destiny is poised to lose Disney a whole lot of money courtesy of its insane budget (at least $295 mil, but many sources believe it was well over $300) and will inevitably go down as one of the biggest bombs in recent history. At least making this movie got Harrison Ford to smile one last time before the end of his life.

Courtesy of a surprise no-report from the San Francisco-exclusive run of A24's Earth Mama (could they be waiting for the NYC/LA debut this coming weekend?), the limited slate ended up being not particularly sexy. Well-reviewed Italian dramedy Amanda made a somewhat respectable $8,963 in 2 theaters, but that was about as good as it got as Biosphere and The Lesson both had their expected struggles materialize with $704 and $622 per theater averages respectively. Things should be better on this front this week as there are a couple of appealing releases entering the fray.


Wide Releases:
Last summer, Tom Cruise provided the global box office with a massive turnstile-spinner that was essential to the bounceback of the theatrical industry. This summer, he's back with another film looking to join Top Gun: Maverick in the Billion Dollar Club. Does Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Paramount) have enough gas in the tank to overcome the mighty competition of next weekend's wide openers and top Across the Spider-Verse as the summer's top earner? Despite running the risk of being comically wrong again like I was in my column previewing Maverick last year, I'm going to say no.

There's this somewhat widespread belief that since Maverick did so astronomically well, Dead Reckoning Part One is destined to follow suit. While I do think it's completely feasible that it's able to top Fallout and become the new highest-grossing entry in the franchise, trying to make an apples-to-apples comparison between them is a bit silly. Maverick was the long-awaited first sequel to an 80's cultural touchstone. There was six Mission-Impossible movies released between the two Top Gun movies (three of which came out in the previous decade!) and no more than six years between any two entries in the franchise. The pent-up demand and nostalgia factor just isn't there with M:I and that will prevent it from flying to the same soaring heights as Maverick.

With all that being said, Dead Reckoning Part One is guaranteed to be among the biggest hits of the second half of the summer slate. The series is coming off its best received/most commercially successful entry in Fallout, Paramount has been pushing it pretty much non-stop since last Memorial Day when they attached the teaser trailer to Maverick and the early WOM has been sensational, which indicates that it should be able to have a leggy run despite the imminent release of Barbie and Oppenheimer and subsequent loss of most, if not all of its PLF presence upon their arrival. Score another victory for Lord Xenu at the multiplex.
Price: $47 ULT/$56 BO
Predictions: $50-70 mil OW ($65-$90 mil 5-day)/8-13 PTA/11-25 Top 5/low to mid 8 IMDB/$185-250 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's among the highest floor options in the game this season, which gives it real appeal. However, it's very pricey and if it finishes around Fallout's total of $220 mil, it likely won't be worth the investment.


Non-anime fans have experienced plenty of surprises over the past couple of years as titles such as Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train and Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero scored 20+ mil OW's (the former of which was particular noteworthy as it was released in April 2021 when COVID capacity restrictions were still in place) at the domestic box office. Based on the early pre-sales at least, Psycho-Pass Providence (Sony/Crunchyroll) doesn't seem set to join the genre's recent semi-explosion in the theatrical movie space. The cyberpunk series that this film is a sequel to is more of a cult niche property than mainstream megahits like Demon Slayer, Dragonball and Jujutsu Kaisen and the three previous film installments weren't released in the US at all and have likely only been seen through torrents, imported discs and VPN's. 2021's My Hero Academia: World Heroes' Mission ($6.2 mil OW/$12.3 mil total BO)and last Fall's One Piece Film: Red ($9.3 mil OW/$12.8 mil total BO) feel like the best comps for Providence and it might even struggle to reach those heights. Any opening above high single digits would be a huge surprise.
Price: $4 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions: $4-8 mil OW/0-2 PTA/0-2 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDB/$8-15 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.


Limited Releases:
With a confirmed 6-theater release and backing from the Disney machine, Theater Camp (Searchlight) stands out among this weekend's dense pack of limited releases. This ensemble comedy about a summer theater camp for kids in Upstate New York that's dealing with financial woes, the idiot son (Jimmy Tatro) of the camp's director (Amy Sedaris) taking over the day-to-day operations after she slips into a coma and a particularly rambunctious group of campers proved to be quite the crowdpleaser at this year's Sundance-which led to a heated auction that Searchlight won. Given the slow rollout they have planned for it (it's not set to go wide until the 28th), Searchlight clearly has hopes it will be able to cast the same spell on a broader audience. Whether or not Theater Camp will succeed in its mission to cut through the noise of this heavy-hitter filled slate find a wide audience is another question entirely, but to its credit, a scrappy underdog story, cast full of faces that are instantly recognizable to both musical theater and weirdo comedy fans in their late 20's/early 30's (Ben Platt, Noah Galvin, Ayo Edebiri, Patti Harrison, Tatro, Molly Gordon-who is also making her directorial debut here) and goofy musical numbers does read like a set of credentials that a Sundance-bred sleeper hit of any decade before this one would have.
Price: $3 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $75-125k OW/4-9 PTA/0-1 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDb/$3-15 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given its release pattern, low price tag and sleeper potential, it's worth considering.


Speaking of hits from yesteryear, The Miracle Club (Sony Classics) feels like something that could've popped 10 years ago. A group of women in 1968 Dublin (Kathy Bates, Maggie Smith, Laura Linney, Agnes O'Casey) who win a trip to Lourdes, France making sarcastic quips and having heart-to-hearts in search of miracles to resolve the issues in their personal lives? The olds would've eaten this shit up and it might've even gotten a sequel! Now, its prospects aren't nearly as bright. The older female audience has proven to be among the most elusive since the theatrical business returned to a relatively normal operating procedure 2 years ago with Elvis, Ticket to Paradise, A Man Called Otto and 80 for Brady serving as the only recent examples of films that gained any real traction within this demographic and Sony Classics has an abysmal track record of late with no film of theirs making more than $3.7 mil since the start of the 2020's. For what its worth, The Miracle Club could very well become their new top earner with its combination of actors/ concept and an initial release that looks like it's going to be in at least 75-100 theaters, but I'm not confident that it will fare much better than Living did late last year/early this year.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $500k-$800k OW/0-3 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$2-5 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Probably not


I figured that the good old' United States would be the first nation to remake the brilliant Japanese zombie mockumentary One Cut of the Dead, but somehow the French beat us to it! Congrats guys, it was about time you had your own One Missed Call or Pulse.

Final Cut (Kino Lorber)-which was helmed by Michael Hazanvicius of all people-was the opening night film at Cannes last year and along with its home country, has since been widely released in a handful of countries including Germany, Spain and One Cut of the Dead birthplace Japan. Basically, it's been hailed as a generally fine albeit pointless remake of a film that's too recent to receive such a treatment. That tepid consensus paired with the fact that it's also not in English makes it feel like a complete non-starter on the arthouse scene.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $20-35k OW/0-1 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDb/$40-60k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Black Ice (Roadside) had one hell of a debut at Toronto as it landed the People Choice's Award for Best Documentary and earned a spot on the festival prestigious Canada's Top Ten List-which is voted on by a panel of critics and film programmers from across the nation. The film from veteran Canadian documentary filmmaker Hubert Davis and executive produced by such heavy-hitters as LeBron James, Maverick Carter and fellow Canuck Drake details the complex history of Black people within the sport of hockey. Everything from the sports' lengthy history of anti-black racism to the history of the little-discussed Coloured Hockey League of the Maritimes- an all-black league consisting of players from Canada's Maritime Provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island) which was founded in 1895 and ran until 1930- are profiled alongside interviews with pro players of past and present including P.K. Subban, Willie O'Ree and Wayne Simmonds.

Despite its collection of accolades and a unique, important subject matter that hasn't gotten this treatment before, Black Ice is doomed to fail. For starters, any hockey title in the US is only appealing to a niche market as its only popular in small pockets of the country (mostly the northeast and midwest). Unsurprisingly, the fact that racial issues in the sport are the focal point of the film makes the appeal even narrower. Making matters worse, it's getting the Alice, Darling treatment from Roadside as its releasing exclusively in 50-100 AMC Theaters for a 1-2 week engagement. It's a shitty situation for the filmmakers, but at least its getting some sort of theatrical release in the States as its visibility will be improved when it shows up on Hulu sometime in the fall/winter.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $40-60k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDb/$60-80k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Continuing with the unintentional Groundhog Day theme of this limited release section is Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)-which also earned strong reviews following a 2022 festival debut at Tribeca and deals with an underexplored topic as it details the extensive and ongoing history of the United States' government direct involvement in the killing, land-stealing and culture-erasing of the Lakota Tribe of the Dakotas. As expected, this title is getting the day-and-day treatment from IFC and will likely fare horribly at the box office in the couple dozen or so theaters it does play in.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $8-18k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$15-40k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Predictions:
1.Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $66 mil ($88 mil 5-day)
2.Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $15 mil
3.Insidious: The Red Door $12 mil
4.Sound of Freedom $9 mil
5.Elemental $7 mil

-Psycho Pass: Providence $4.5 mil

PTA: Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One, Theater Camp, Earth Mama, Sound of Freedom, Insidious: The Red Door

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down the moviegoing event of the summer (a little movie called Cobweb) as well as Barbie and Oppenheimer.

[Buscemi2]

The Miracle Club is playing in my area and the trailer's been on several movies I've seen lately so it's probably going to be in way more than 100 theatres.

Meanwhile, I don't even think Psycho Pass is playing wide. Sony has not been pushing this one at all and the franchise isn't at the levels of Demon Slayer or One Piece in terms of popularity.

[transformers2]

Dead Reckoning Part One made $7 mil from its previews yesterday.

[numbersix]

That doesn't seem hugely impressive, or am I wrong?

Maybe it's because it was a Tuesday, but if that was a Thurday preview the film would only make around $50m for the weekend.

[Chienfantome]

Deadline is calling $16M on Wednesday, including the $7M previews from Tuesday. Sure it's not a Thursday/Friday combo, but it's still much lower than expected, definitely. It's lower than Indiana Jones.

[transformers2]

It's definitely not impressive, but there are a few asterisks attached to it: Tom Cruise movies don't typically do huge preview numbers (even Maverick only did $19.3 mil with 3 nights worth of reported previews), the Sunday and Monday night sneaks aren't included in that figure and as you mentioned, it's the middle of the week. Considering inflation, the numbers are actually basically identical to Fallout's preview run 5 years ago, so there's really no reason for concern either

[Chienfantome]

I'm not sure Maverick's previews consisted of 3 nights, in my memory there was the classic thursday previews, plus some sort of special fan event on another night. But Maverick did $51M on opening day, compared to the potential 16M of Reckoning, that's a huge gap.
And yes, I'm certain that with great WOM it will get higher that what those first numbers imply. But still, MI7 was expected to be the bigger film of summer, almost, and it's getting started on a slow rhythm to do so.
Is everyone keeping their money for Barbie ?

[transformers2]

They did do previews on both Tuesday and Wednesday, although one of them might've only been at AMC locations since they were in Dolby. As I said in the column, I felt some people were inflating Dead Reckoning's stock the entire time as a result of Maverick's performance. Of course it's likely going to end up as a top 5 earner for the season, but I never felt it was in contention for the top spot since the M: I movies never really went away unlike Top Gun. Spider-Verse, Indiana Jones and Barbie were the films I was the highest on coming into this season and I'm very confident that Barbie will perform more like the former than the latter

[Chienfantome]

I wasn't expecting Top Gun numbers, but it seemed like riding on Maverick's records, Tom Cruise's new MI was bound for a bump compared to the previous' numbers.
Indiana Jones and MI7 were the two films I was the highest on coming into the summer. Had I drafted 1st or 2nd, I think I would have picked either of them, so I was extatic to be able to draft Indy in 5th or 6th ( ), I don't remember.
And I thought it was way to early to pick Barbie in 1st round like you did. And now it seems more and more likely your pick was the best !

[transformers2]

I'd be ecstatic if Barbie proved to be the biggest movie picked in the 1st round. Quite frankly, I was shocked and thrilled to see slip it down to #8 as I got the sense it could be a true phenomenon based on how early the buzz started building for it and had it ahead of multiple movies that were picked ahead of it-including "safer" titles like The Little Mermaid and Dead Reckoning. Still a bit nervous about its legs, but I'm just as, if not slightly more optimistic about its prospects now as I was when I drafted it.

However, it needs to be noted that If I had your exact pick, I would've also taken Indiana Jones without hesitation, so guess I picked up another unexpected perk from winning last year

[Chienfantome]

Sometimes it's better to pick later in 1st round. Especially when it's a year without obvious BO behemoths.
And now Paramount is reporting $15.5M for MI7, previews included. It will do less than Indiana Jones. At least on opening weekend.

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Mission-Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One $56.2 mil ($80 mil 5-day)
Sound of Freedom $27 mil
Insidious: The Red Door $13 mil
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $12 mil
Elemental $8.7 mil
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $6.1 mil
Transformers: Rise of the Beasts $3.4 mil
No Hard Feelings $3.3 mil
Joy Ride $2.6 mil
The Little Mermaid $2.4 mil

-The Miracle Club $680k
-Theater Camp $270k
-Psycho-Pass: Providence $210k
-Black Ice $26k
-Lakota Nation vs. United States $8k

PTA:
Theater Camp $45k
Mission: Impossible-Dead Reckoning Part One $13k
Sound of Freedom $8.3k
Lakota Nation vs. United States $8k
Insidious: The Red Door $4.1k

No word on Final Cut yet

[Chienfantome]

Those Sound of Freedom numbers are crazy. Awfully crazy.

[transformers2]

Indeed they are. I'd love to find out how much of the money is coming from the ticket-buying initiative the studio launched and how many of those tickets purchased went unclaimed.

[Walleye413]

I'm in the camp of 'stunned' for the MI7 numbers. I was crushed I didn't get to pick it in the draft. And the idea of taking Barbie earlier than 8th was crazy talk. As much as I think I have a pulse on the movie business, this game proves me wrong every year