Screening The Releases - April 28th

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

The Super Mario Bros. Movie led the box office again, with a gross of almost 60 m, dropping just 35 percent from last weekend, for a huge total of 436 m so far. In second comes our first opener, Evil Dead Rise, which performed above expectations with almost 25 m over the weekend. Additionally, it seems less front-loaded than expected, and positive WOM may get it longer legs than expected. In third, there is another opener. This time, it is The Covenant, which opened to about 7 m. Not a good number for a 55 m-budgeted film, but at the very least it is better than Guy Richie's last - Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre - which grossed about what this will do in one week in total domestically. In fourth, John Wick: Chapter 4 drops just 27 percent to gross almost 6 m over the weekend. In total, it has earned almost 170 m, and will become the highest grossing in the series domestically soon. In fifth, Dungeons And Dragons: Honor Among Thieves also dropped 27 percent, grossing 5 m for a total so far of 82 m. In between last week's horror releases The Pope's Exorcist and Renfield (both of which were hit hard by Evil Dead Rise - the former dropped 62 percent to gross about 3 m over the weekend for a total of 15 m, and the latter dropped 59 percent and also grossed about 3 m, with a total so far of almost 14 m) and anime film Suzume (which dropped 68 percent to gross about 2 m, for a total so far of 8 m) was the wide expansion of Beau Is Afraid, which grossed about 3 m this week. WOM is extremely divisive, so don't expect much in the way of legs or further expansion. Outside the top 10, Chevalier opened to about 2 m, which is okay considering the nonexistent marketing campaign and multiple delays. Ray Romano's Somewhere In Queens opened to under 1 m in semi-wide release.

In terms of PTA, Mario reigned there too, with a PTA of almost 14 k. Evil Dead Rise was in second in PTA, as well, with a 7 k PTA. In third was Joyland, with around 5 k. In fourth was Other People's Children, which opened to 4 k in three theaters. (Note: Wild Life - which I do not believe is in the game - took fifth in terms of all PTAs with almost 4 k) In fifth in the game was Carmen, which opened to an underwhelming PTA of around 4 k.

This Week

Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret



While the novel this is based on is iconic, and reviews for the adaptation have been strong so far, I don't see it doing particularly well. (Expect to see the following reason for my low prediction as a common theme this week); the one major issue the film has is that awareness it's even coming out doesn't seem that high. If it had more marketing, I believe it could have been a hit. While I do think it will have okay legs, it will probably be too late.

I see an OW of 7 m, and a total of 21 m.

It will get you 3-4 Top 5 points, 1 PTA point, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

Big George Foreman...



Odds for this don't look great either. The marketing campaign has been very muted, and what has been shown looks confused in terms of target audience. Additionally, Air is still in the marketplace (And this is likely to get much worse reviews than that has at the moment), providing another sports drama for those potentially interested.

I see it having an OW of 5 m, and a total of 10 m.

It will get you 2 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a IMDb score in the range of 7.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Sisu



This will probably be the most successful of the releases this week, though that's not saying much. This had a decent amount of buzz when the trailer was first released, and said trailer playing before John Wick: Chapter 4 can only help its chances. That being said, Lionsgate hasn't done much since to get the word out that this is releasing this weekend. Additionally, it is only being released in about 1,000 theaters, which will hurt its chances a little bit.

I expect an OW of 4 m, and a total of 12 m.

It will get you 1 Top 5 point, 5-6 PTA points, and a score in the range of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it's a solid choice in Ultimate.

Polite Society



This seems like it is going to completely tank at the box office, unfortunately. It received a positive reception at Sundance, but since then, Focus has done pretty much nothing to market it whatsoever (I feel like a broken record saying this about a lot of underperforming releases - especially from Focus - but it really does seem to be an issue a lot of these films face). Hopefully it finds more of an audience after its theatrical release.

I expect an OW of 1 m, and a total of 2 m.

It will get you 0 Top 5 points, 0 PTA points, and a score of 6 on IMDb.

Pass on this in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Top 5

The Super Mario Bros. Movie - 40 m
Evil Dead Rise - 10 m
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret - 7 m
Big George Foreman... - 5 m
Sisu - 4 m

PTA

The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Sisu
Joyland
Evil Dead Rise
Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret

Next Week

Join transformers for the start of the summer box office, with a look at the prospects of Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3, as well as Love Again.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I went to a preview of Sisu on Tuesday and even though it sold out, it wasn't the most enthusiastic crowd. I can't see it making more than $2 million.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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numbersix
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by numbersix »

I think Margaret has the potential to surprise, with the fanbase behind the book and the lack of teen girl oriented films in quite a while. May be a bit of a sleeper hit. I think 12m over the weekend is possible.

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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Margaret, even with the great reviews, reminds me too much of the director's The Edge of Seventeen, which flopped despite a prime pre-Thanksgiving date and great reviews.

Also, you have to wonder if Judy Blume's name still has weight with today's readers. The last adaptation of a Blume story, the 2013 film Tiger Eyes, had some buzz as being the first theatrical adaptation of a Blume story and had Blume herself co-adapting the script. But the film was barely released and only got mixed reviews, immediately falling into obscurity. If you haven't heard of it, I'm not surprised.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret: A
Big George Foreman: A-
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $40 mil
Evil Dead Rise $12.2 mil
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. $6.8 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4 $5 mil
Star Wars; Return of the Jedi Re-Release $4.7 mil
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $4.1 mil
Air $4 mil
Ponniyin Selvan: Part Two $3.8 mil
The Covenant $3.6 mil
Sisu $3.3 mil

-Big George Foreman $3 mil
-Polite Society $800k

PTA:
The Super Mario Bros. Movie $9,514
Evil Dead Rise $3,570
Sisu $3,230
Other People's Children $2,127
Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret. $2,034
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 28th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $40.8 mil
2.Evil Dead Rise $12.1 mil
3.Are You There God? It's Me, Margret $6.7 mil
4.Star Wars: Return of the Jedi Re-Release $5.1 mil
5.John Wick: Chapter 4 $4.9 mil
6.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $4.2 mil
7.Air $4 mil
8.Ponniyin Selvan: Part Two $3.8 mil
9.The Covenant $3.6 mil
10.Sisu $3.3 mil

-Big George Foreman $2.9 mil
-Polite Society $818k

PTA:
1.The Super Mario Bros. Movie $9,714
2.Evil Dead Rise $3,350
3.Sisu $3,311
4.Other People's Children $2,151
5.Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret $2,016

-Big George Foreman $958
-Polite Society $898
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

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