Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 3/31

[transformers2]

For the fourth straight time, the John Wick series topped itself at the box office.

The potential final main installment of the Keanu Reeves-led action franchise wracked up an impressive $73.8 mil in its opening frame-which is roughly $17 mil more than what John Wick Chapter 3 opened to a little under four years ago. On top of setting a new series record, John Wick 4 was the best opening for an R-rated film since Joker in October 2019 and for Lionsgate since The Hunger Games: Mockingjay-Part 2 in November 2015. Despite the closure the film provides, those results and the staying power its expected to have at the box office over the next month or so make it feel like this might not be the last time we saw Mr. Wick hop around the world to battle hordes of assassins.

As expected, the holdovers at the box office were also put into the ground at the hands of Wick. Shazam!: Fury of the Gods took a not-so-nice 69% dive in its second weekend of release, Scream VI officially passed the gross of its 2022 predecessor with an $8.3 mil take and Creed III took another step towards the promised land of $150 mil by adding another $8.2 mil to its prize purse. Wide-ish newcomers A Good Person and The Lost King also failed to make much noise as they managed just $834 and $516k respectively and will likely be ushered onto VOD within the next few weeks.

Wide Releases:
A little over 22 years ago, New Line Cinema tried to bring the famous tabletop RPG Dungeons and Dragons to the big screen. To say it didn't go well would be a vast understatement. The film from first time director Courtney Solomon-who later went onto make An American Haunting and Getaway-became one of the more infamous critical and commercial bombs of the early 2000's.

If the early reception is any indication, the next crack at adapting D&D into movie form is destined to fare much better. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves (Paramount) was warmly received at its premiere at SXSW earlier this month and that enthusiasm has remained largely in tact in the reviews that have trickled out sense. Much of the praise the film has earned has been directed towards the filmmaking duo of Jonathan Goldstein and John Frances Daley's ability to mix their affinity for D&D with a lighthearted approach to fantasy adventure that expands the appeal beyond the hardcore fans of the game. A fun, funny blockbuster that appeals to a broad audience, sounds like a surefire hit right? Not so fast.

What's going to make or break Honor Among Thieves is if audiences care enough about D&D to go see a movie that's based off it. Calling it a niche property feels a bit unfair considering that it's been a mainstay in the gaming community for 40+ years, but it is something that's long been viewed as over-the-top nerdy and its recent resurgence in popularity hasn't necessarily helped shed that perception. Tracking has it in the $25-35 mil range for this weekend-which feels about right-and it should have holds that are at least respectable if the WOM ends up being as strong as expected, but the array of possible end results for Honor Among Thieves is massive and it would undoubtedly be a high risk/high reward play if we weren't in the final week of the season.

Price: $6 ULT/$5 BO
Predictions: $20-35 mil OW/4-5 PTA (1 week)/4-5 Top 5 (1 week)/mid to high 7 IMDB/$20-35 mil BO (1 week) ($55-125 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Yes


While it's not being completely buried like a lot of their other recent releases, the release strategy for A Thousand and One (Focus) marks yet another baffling choice by Universal's specialty division. This family drama that takes place over the course of 12 years follows a formerly incarnated mother (dancer/choreographer/singer Teyana Taylor in her first lead acting role) and her son (played at various ages by Aaron Kingsley Adetola, Aven Courtney and Josiah Cross) that she steals away from the New York City foster care system shortly after she gets released from jail won the Grand Jury Prize at this year's Sundance. The Sundance top prize win paired with the inherently emotional content of its story is begging for a platform release or an immediate wide release of a more sizable scale (the current theater estimate is 800), but it's not getting either for whatever reason.

Maybe its getting a more significant push in NYC and areas that have higher black populations than my comically white neck of the woods that will cause it to overperform, but from what I've seen, the most significant promotion for the film seems to be coming from Taylor's social media accounts and while her following is pretty sizable, it's not likely going to be adequate enough to make this breakout. Waiting until the end of February to release a trailer also probably didn't help matters. A $2-3 mil opening and $4-6 mil finish seems like the best case scenario here.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $1-3 mil OW/0-2 PTA (1 week)/0-1 Top 5 (1 week)/low to mid 7 IMDB/$1-3 mil BO($2-6 mil total BO)
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It's not worth taking a chance on in ULT, but it's a decent $1 option in BO.


Weekend Predictions:
1.John Wick: Chapter 4 $38 mil
2.Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $29 mil
3/4.Scream VI/Creed III $5.5 mi
5.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $4 mil

-A Thousand and One $1.5 mil

PTA: John Wick: Chapter 4, Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves, Scream VI, Creed III, A Thousand and One

Tune in next week when six breaks down Ben Affleck's return to the world of directing, and the film that will determine whether or not I win the full year league.

[Chienfantome]

Tune in next week when six breaks down Ben Affleck's return to the world of directing, and the film that will determine whether or not I win the full year league.

Hold on, cowboy. Because if D&D goes beyond what early tracking suggested, and it will, Super Mario Bros might not be enough for you to win !
I need a hit out of D&D, but the more the weeks pass, the more it feels likely to build on its strong WOM. I'm seeing an opening in the $35/40M range, and with the great reviews and WOM, it might be enough.

[transformers2]

Tune in next week when six breaks down Ben Affleck's return to the world of directing, and the film that will determine whether or not I win the full year league.

Hold on, cowboy. Because if D&D goes beyond what early tracking suggested, and it will, Super Mario Bros might not be enough for you to win !
I need a hit out of D&D, but the more the weeks pass, the more it feels likely to build on its strong WOM. I'm seeing an opening in the $35/40M range, and with the great reviews and WOM, it might be enough.

Don't remind me that my odds of winning are decreasing by the day!!!!

[Buscemi2]

Or it could open well before dropping fast. There's a strong possibility that Dungeons & Dragons won't play outside of hardcore fans, even with the strong reviews and the filmmakers making it a comedy instead of the Lord of the Rings-type movie the source material would suggest.

It could play like 21 Jump Street and bring in a new audience unfamiliar with the original concept or like Watchmen where the target audience loves it but others are indifferent.

[numbersix]

Sorry, chien, I'm sure you're distracted by a week of protests, but I'm not so sure you should be that confident. You're about $170m behind me, with 4 films left (while I have 1). If your final 3 make about 60m, that means Dungeons and Dragons needs to make $110m+. That means it will have to hold very well, even if it opens on the upper side of estimates at $34m. Mario will absorb the kids and Renfield, even if it underperforms, will take a very similar audience. I'm not sure if Dungeons will break $100m, but we'll see.

I do, sadly, think this is Tranny's game to lose. Feels like Mario has a floor of $200m by the end of April, which should be enough to pip the post. IF so, I'm going to have a chat with some of the Irish boys in South Boston to come over to you, Tranny, and teach you a lesson.

[Chienfantome]

As I said a couple of weeks ago, to me, the most well-placed to win this thing is you, Six. You have a comfortable advance on me and Tranny, even if you won't make much more money now, you have compiled enough money to win.
I am not confident AT ALL, and I honestly feel like I'm better placed to finish 2nd. I'll post the updates on the draft tonight to see where we all are, but Shazam clearly isn't banking enough for now for Tranny, and he will need, in the end, $250M in the final weekends to win it, ostly from Mario. Will it make 250M in 4 weekends ? It will be close, but it's hard to say he will make that in 4 weekends.
But I still think I have a shot at reaching #1, because given the reviews and WOM on D&D, it's not out of the question that the film can cash in the $120M area in 5 weekends. Sure Mario will grab most attention once it's released, but I think competition in April is still open enough for D&D to bloom behind Mario.

[numbersix]

True, true. It's going to be so tight, though. I'm going to spepnd the last weekend of April refreshing Deadline's box office page constantly

[Chienfantome]

We will probably do that each weekend til the end of April

[transformers2]

Sorry, chien, I'm sure you're distracted by a week of protests, but I'm not so sure you should be that confident. You're about $170m behind me, with 4 films left (while I have 1). If your final 3 make about 60m, that means Dungeons and Dragons needs to make $110m+. That means it will have to hold very well, even if it opens on the upper side of estimates at $34m. Mario will absorb the kids and Renfield, even if it underperforms, will take a very similar audience. I'm not sure if Dungeons will break $100m, but we'll see.

I do, sadly, think this is Tranny's game to lose. Feels like Mario has a floor of $200m by the end of April, which should be enough to pip the post. IF so, I'm going to have a chat with some of the Irish boys in South Boston to come over to you, Tranny, and teach you a lesson.

Whitey Bulger is gone, so I can probably handle whatever muscle remains in Southie these days (and by handle, I mean it would be a beating I could bounce back from).

[Buscemi2]

I'm sure Mark Wahlberg's got a few guys that will beat you and then preach the Jesus.

[numbersix]

Hmmm... think D&D is going to make $40m this weekend

[Buscemi2]

$40 million would be solid for a franchise that's had limited success outside of the tables. It will be interesting to see if it plays in future weeks and in international markets. If it does succeed in both fronts, we have Paramount's next big franchise. If not, we have Paramount's Uncharted in that it plays decently but never amounts to anything outside of a few good weeks at the box office.

[Chienfantome]

Indeed the thursday numbers are solid. With the great WOM and reviews, it has a good shot at crossing $40M this weekend.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Dungeons & Dragons: A-

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves $38.5 mil
John Wick: Chapter 4 $28.2 mil
His Only Son/Scream VI $5.3 mil
Creed III $5 mil
Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $4.7 mil
A Thousand and One $1.8 mil
65 $1.6 mil
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $1.2 mil
Jesus Revolution $1 mil