Screening The Releases - March 17th

[Screen203]

Last Week

Scream VI slashed a very strong 44 m, the highest-grossing OW of the series unadjusted. In second, another series-record holder in Creed III held on strong, grossing 27 m, dropping 53 percent from last week for a total of 101 m so far. The rival horror opener, 65, performed poorly (though still above rock-bottom expectations) with an opening of 12 m. WOM from critics and audiences is poor, though, so expect very short legs. In fourth, Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantamania stopped the bleeding a little bit, dropping 44 percent from last week to gross 7 m, for a total of 198 m so far, which would be an okay number if it was doing better worldwide and was received better by critics and audiences. In fifth, Cocaine Bear continued on its rampage, dropping 44 percent to gross 6 m for a total of 51 m so far. Right behind it was the other wide opener this past weekend, Champions, which opened to a not-great 5 m. Audiences seem to like it a lot more than critics, so (depending on the budget) it might be able to save some face in the weeks ahead. One release that is definitely performing poorly, though, is Guy Richie's Operation Fortune: Ruse De Guerre, which dropped nearly 60 percent from its already bad opening to gross 1 m, and has a total so far of about 6 m.

The top PTAs of the weekend also went to Scream VI, Creed III, and 65, which grossed 12 k, about 7 k, and about 4 k respectively. Rounding out the top 5 PTAs were Ant-Man and Jesus Revolution, grossing about 2 k each. In terms of expansions on Oscar weekend, the highlight probably goes to The Quiet Girl, which, while not having a great PTA (about 2 k in about 250 theaters), had a much higher gross (about 400k) than fellow nominee Close when it was in a similar amount of theaters. It should be able to reach 1 m, which seemed like a long shot at best before its release.


This Week

Shazam: Fury Of The Gods



Things aren't looking great for this. Reviews are rather weak (in comparison to the positive critical reception of the first), and buzz around it is shockingly low. Additionally, the DC Universe being rebooted soon means its possible (probable based on its reception so far) that the events of this will be completely meaningless in the future, which makes this seem like leftovers. Lastly, there has been a noticeable lack of marketing in comparison with previous DC releases. The one thing it has going for it is that it has the most appeal to families than the other March releases, but that will only take it so far when everything else seems stacked up against it.

I expect it to get 3-5 PTA points, 7-12 Top 5 points, and a 7 on IMDb.

I expect an OW of 30 m, and a total of 75 m.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Moving On



I think that if this actually received a decent marketing campaign, that it could have done okay numbers similar to Mrs. Harris Goes To Paris, or 2016's Hello, My Name Is Doris, which was released by the same studio in the same release period. While it has received positive reviews (which, if audiences agree, should lead to solid WOM), there has been seemingly no marketing whatsoever. It seems like it will be lucky to gross a tenth of the star's previous film 80 For Brady.

I expect it to get 1-2 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a 7 on IMDb.

I expect an OW of about 1 m and a total of about 3 m.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Inside



This has a decent trailer and a popular lead actor, but I don't see it going anywhere, Box Office wise. Reviews have been mixed, with most praising Willem DaFoe's performance, but saying the movie doesn't have that much more to say (some going as far as to describe it as an endurance test). Even if it were more audience-friendly, it is only being released in about 300 theaters, which is generally a bad sign for Box Office potential.

I expect it to get 2-3 PTA points, 0 Top 5 points, and a 6 on IMDb.

I expect an OW of under 1 m and a total of about 1 m.

Don't take it in Box Office, and while it's not the worst option in Ultimate, there are better options (including Focus's own A Thousand And One and Polite Society).

Miscellaneous

The film The Origin Of Evil is listed on the calendar in the game, but I do not see a domestic trailer, so it is unlikely it will come out this weekend.

Top 5

Shazam: Fury Of The Gods - 30 m
Scream VI - 18 m
Creed III - 18 m
65 - 6 m
Ant-Man... - 5 m

PTA

Shazam: Fury Of The Gods
Scream VI
Creed 3
Inside
Moving On

Next Week

Join transformers next week for an overview of John Wick: Chapter 4, as well as A Good Person.

[Buscemi2]

Inside is looking like yet another Focus dump. Why Willem Dafoe agreed to make a killer sauna movie baffles me. As for Moving On, one Jane Fonda/Lily Tomlin teaming this year was enough. Maybe if they'd gotten Dolly Parton to return to acting, it would have been an instant blockbuster.

And yeah, Shazam looks be for Snydercut only. No buzz and the trailers haven't been good either. Maybe people will re-evaluate the first one and realize that one wasn't any good.

[Screen203]

I don't know what's going on with Focus at the moment - most of their movies feel like they should be platformed to generate buzz instead of the semi-wide releases that seem to get them nowhere.

[Buscemi2]

The way I see it, it has to do with Universal proper. They want to be seen as the progressive studio and make or distribute films that A24 or Neon would normally handle...and then barely release or outright dump most of said projects in favor of doing an ad blitz for Violent Night or some brainless movie for teen boys who complain about not getting any or want to shoot up a place because they were out of Mountain Dew.

[transformers2]

Shazam did $3.4 mil in previews, which is a whopping $2.4 mil less than the original. It is however still on track to hit its modest $30 mil tracking number

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Shazam: Fury of the Gods: B+ (well below the first one's A so expect fast drops)

[transformers2]

Weekend Estimates:
Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $30.5 mil
Scream VI $17.5 mil
Creed III $15.4 mil
65 $5.8 mil
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $4.1 mil
Cocaine Bear $3.9 mil
Jesus Revolution $3.5 mil
Champions $3 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $1.9 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $1.5 mil

-Moving On $798k
-Inside $470k

[transformers2]

Weekend Actuals:
1.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $30.1 mil
2.Scream VI $17.3 mil
3.Creed III $15.4 mil
4.65 $5.9 mil
5.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $4.2 mil
6.Cocaine Bear $4 mil
7.Jesus Revolution $3.5 mil
8.Champions $3.1 mil
9.Avatar: The Way of Water $2.1 mil
10.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $1.5 mil

-Moving On $822k
-Inside $510k

PTA:
1.Shazam!: Fury of the Gods $7,396
2.Scream VI $4,715
3.Creed III $4,422
4.Avatar: The Way of Water $1,763
5.65 $1,718

-Inside $1,428 (357 theaters)
-Moving On $1,035 (794 theaters)