SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by numbersix »

Spring has sprung. Actually, depending on where you are in the world, Spring doesn’t spring until the end of March. But those people are psychopaths and should be eradicated from the planet in as violent a way as possible. But enough about those troglodytes: back to the movies. 2023 feels like it’s going to be the first full post-COVID year where things seem normal. Well, sort of normal, as VOD windows are thrown out the… window, and SVODs buy out films, pull them out of cinemas, only to realise there’s money to be made from theatrical releases. Despite a relatively quiet weekend last week, there were unexpected bumps for Cocaine Bear and blessings for Jesus Revolution. This more than compensates for Ant-Man 3, which suffered one of the worst 2nd week drops for a MCU movie. Just as the box office is back on track, people are finally tired of seeing the same ol superhero movie. We’re going to need even more Top Gun and Avatar sequels.




The only film, as part of the game, out this week is Creed III (United/MGM). Sadly, and surprisingly, this is not the third feature film about our favourite oddball from The Office. Instead, it’s the ninth film in the Rocky series, and of course the third dealing with Donnie Creed (Michael B Jordan), son of Apollo who was Rocky’s frenemy. In this film, Donnie does some boxing. Who would have known? He’s going to be boxing someone new, not someone old, and this boxing will most likely be in a square somewhere, surrounded by ropes. There may be a training montage. Do you really need to know much more? Well, Jonathan Majors (the new MCU villain) will be the man he’s up against. Also notable is that it’s Jordan’s directorial debut, and that Rocky (Sly Stallone) will be absent for the first time in the franchise. Is he dead, or is it just taking too long to run up those Philly steps?

In terms of the box office, Creed made $109m and the sequel $115m. Both impressive figures, but I’m not convinced this film will work as well. With the sequel tying up the various narrative threads, and Rocky skipping this flick, audiences may be turned off, despite the excellent reviews so far (91% in RT). With no competition this weekend, and a horror and sci-fi coming up next, this should still have a solid opening. I expect a low 30s OW, and a $80m cume. That will get you 11 T5 points, 6 PTA points, and a 7 IMDB score. However, it’s $23 in Ultimate which feels a little high when M3g3n delivered something similar with a low price tag. The same issue with BO, despite it being a slightly acceptable $21. With the buzz behind Scream 6 suggesting similar results. You might opt for that instead.

That’s it. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre is Guy Ritchie’s latest but is being treated like a STV film, and Asian animation Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village should make a dent in the Top 5. But you can’t have em.


Predictions for the Weekend

1. Creed III - $32m
2. Ant-Man III- $14m
3. Cocain3 B3ar – 9.5m
4. Jesus 3: Great Vengeance and Furious Anger - $9m
5. Demon Slayer 333 - $8m

PTA: Creed, Antman, Return to Seoul, Jesus Revolution, Cocaine Bear


Next week, we’re back with a fuller slate of films, with the aforementioned Scream 6 and 65 opening wide.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

Demon Slayer is only getting one show a day in a single theatre in my area, even though said showings are selling really well. I'm not sure if this was Sony's doing or the incompetent new manager at said theatre decided he couldn't get enough alcohol commissions with something that wasn't action, horror, or appeals solely to bored housewives.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by transformers2 »

Definitely not a studio mandate from Sony on Demon Slayer. It has 4-8 showtimes per day at every single theater that's playing it up here.

Have to disagree with six on Creed as well. WOM should be terrific given the strength of the reviews and I think that will allow it to leg out to $100+ mil like its predecessors.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

I knew it was terrible management. They have name tags now, something that was unthinkable before management changed.

It makes me think so much of Empire Records, when they show how terrible things will get if the store gets taken over by a corporate suit. Except replace corporate suit with guy who actually thinks Top Gun: Maverick deserved a Best Picture nomination and hates anything with subtitles or is in black and white.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by numbersix »

Errr... royally fucked up on this week's predictions. Looks like Creed 3 is gonna mke $40m+

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Creed III: A- (I honestly thought this would get an A+ based on how good the response was at my showing)
Demon Slayer: B+
Operation Fortune: B+
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by Chienfantome »

Looks like Creed III could even get to 50M. Damn.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:
March 4th, 2023, 8:54 am
Cinemascores:

Creed III: A- (I honestly thought this would get an A+ based on how good the response was at my showing)
Demon Slayer: B+
Operation Fortune: B+
The PostTrak exits match your experience. They came in at 5 stars with a positive score rate of 92%.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Creed III $58.7 mil
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $12.4 mil
Cocaine Bear $11 mil
Demon Slayer $10.1 mil
Jesus Revolution $8.7 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $3.6 mil
Operation Fortune $3.2 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $2.7 mil
Magic Mike's Last Dance $1.2 mil
80 for Brady $845k
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Creed III $58.4 mil (best ever opening for the Rocky franchise as well a sports movie)
2.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $12.8 mil (another 60% drop!)
3.Cocaine Bear $11.1 mil
4.Demon Slayer-To the Swordsmith Village $10.1 mil
5.Jesus Revolution $8.5 mil
6.Avatar: The Way of Water $3.6 mil
7.Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre $3.1 mil
8.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $2.7 mil
9.Magic Mike's Last Dance $1.1 mil
10.80 for Brady $886k

PTA:
1.Creed III $14,567
2.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $3,349
3.Jesus Revolution $3,289
4.Cocaine Bear $3,119
5.Return to Seoul $2,350 (38 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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