SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 3/3
Posted: March 1st, 2023, 4:21 pm
Spring has sprung. Actually, depending on where you are in the world, Spring doesn’t spring until the end of March. But those people are psychopaths and should be eradicated from the planet in as violent a way as possible. But enough about those troglodytes: back to the movies. 2023 feels like it’s going to be the first full post-COVID year where things seem normal. Well, sort of normal, as VOD windows are thrown out the… window, and SVODs buy out films, pull them out of cinemas, only to realise there’s money to be made from theatrical releases. Despite a relatively quiet weekend last week, there were unexpected bumps for Cocaine Bear and blessings for Jesus Revolution. This more than compensates for Ant-Man 3, which suffered one of the worst 2nd week drops for a MCU movie. Just as the box office is back on track, people are finally tired of seeing the same ol superhero movie. We’re going to need even more Top Gun and Avatar sequels.
The only film, as part of the game, out this week is Creed III (United/MGM). Sadly, and surprisingly, this is not the third feature film about our favourite oddball from The Office. Instead, it’s the ninth film in the Rocky series, and of course the third dealing with Donnie Creed (Michael B Jordan), son of Apollo who was Rocky’s frenemy. In this film, Donnie does some boxing. Who would have known? He’s going to be boxing someone new, not someone old, and this boxing will most likely be in a square somewhere, surrounded by ropes. There may be a training montage. Do you really need to know much more? Well, Jonathan Majors (the new MCU villain) will be the man he’s up against. Also notable is that it’s Jordan’s directorial debut, and that Rocky (Sly Stallone) will be absent for the first time in the franchise. Is he dead, or is it just taking too long to run up those Philly steps?
In terms of the box office, Creed made $109m and the sequel $115m. Both impressive figures, but I’m not convinced this film will work as well. With the sequel tying up the various narrative threads, and Rocky skipping this flick, audiences may be turned off, despite the excellent reviews so far (91% in RT). With no competition this weekend, and a horror and sci-fi coming up next, this should still have a solid opening. I expect a low 30s OW, and a $80m cume. That will get you 11 T5 points, 6 PTA points, and a 7 IMDB score. However, it’s $23 in Ultimate which feels a little high when M3g3n delivered something similar with a low price tag. The same issue with BO, despite it being a slightly acceptable $21. With the buzz behind Scream 6 suggesting similar results. You might opt for that instead.
That’s it. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre is Guy Ritchie’s latest but is being treated like a STV film, and Asian animation Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village should make a dent in the Top 5. But you can’t have em.
Predictions for the Weekend
1. Creed III - $32m
2. Ant-Man III- $14m
3. Cocain3 B3ar – 9.5m
4. Jesus 3: Great Vengeance and Furious Anger - $9m
5. Demon Slayer 333 - $8m
PTA: Creed, Antman, Return to Seoul, Jesus Revolution, Cocaine Bear
Next week, we’re back with a fuller slate of films, with the aforementioned Scream 6 and 65 opening wide.
The only film, as part of the game, out this week is Creed III (United/MGM). Sadly, and surprisingly, this is not the third feature film about our favourite oddball from The Office. Instead, it’s the ninth film in the Rocky series, and of course the third dealing with Donnie Creed (Michael B Jordan), son of Apollo who was Rocky’s frenemy. In this film, Donnie does some boxing. Who would have known? He’s going to be boxing someone new, not someone old, and this boxing will most likely be in a square somewhere, surrounded by ropes. There may be a training montage. Do you really need to know much more? Well, Jonathan Majors (the new MCU villain) will be the man he’s up against. Also notable is that it’s Jordan’s directorial debut, and that Rocky (Sly Stallone) will be absent for the first time in the franchise. Is he dead, or is it just taking too long to run up those Philly steps?
In terms of the box office, Creed made $109m and the sequel $115m. Both impressive figures, but I’m not convinced this film will work as well. With the sequel tying up the various narrative threads, and Rocky skipping this flick, audiences may be turned off, despite the excellent reviews so far (91% in RT). With no competition this weekend, and a horror and sci-fi coming up next, this should still have a solid opening. I expect a low 30s OW, and a $80m cume. That will get you 11 T5 points, 6 PTA points, and a 7 IMDB score. However, it’s $23 in Ultimate which feels a little high when M3g3n delivered something similar with a low price tag. The same issue with BO, despite it being a slightly acceptable $21. With the buzz behind Scream 6 suggesting similar results. You might opt for that instead.
That’s it. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre is Guy Ritchie’s latest but is being treated like a STV film, and Asian animation Demon Slayer: To the Swordsmith Village should make a dent in the Top 5. But you can’t have em.
Predictions for the Weekend
1. Creed III - $32m
2. Ant-Man III- $14m
3. Cocain3 B3ar – 9.5m
4. Jesus 3: Great Vengeance and Furious Anger - $9m
5. Demon Slayer 333 - $8m
PTA: Creed, Antman, Return to Seoul, Jesus Revolution, Cocaine Bear
Next week, we’re back with a fuller slate of films, with the aforementioned Scream 6 and 65 opening wide.