Screening The Releases - Febuary 17th

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Last Week
The finale to Steven Soderbergh's male stripper trilogy Magic Mike's Last Dance, hindered by a low theater count/lack of marketing and mediocre reviews, opened with the weakest gross of the three films, grossing only about 8 m over the 3-day weekend (up until Valentine's Day, it has grossed about 11 m). In second, Avatar: The Way Of Water grossed about 7 m (and dropping 36 percent) over the 3-day weekend, and about 9 m up until Valentine's Day, for a total of almost 650 m domestically. In third was another James Cameron film, as the latest re-release of Titanic grossed about 7 m over the 3-day weekend, and 9 m up until Valentine's Day, for a combined total of 668 m domestically. In fourth, 80 For Brady grossed about 6 m over the 3-day, dropping 54 percent due to competition with the Super Bowl (up until Valentine's Day, it has grossed about 8 m, for a total of 27 m domestically. In fifth, Puss In Boots: The Last Wish grossed about 6 m over the 3-day, dropping 29 percent, and about 8 m up until Valentine's Day, for a total of 160 m. Last weekend's number one film, Knock At The Cabin, plunged 62 percent to gross about 5 m over the 3-day, and about 7 m up until Valentine's Day, for a total of about 25 m. In terms of limited releases, Close continues to be the standout, even though its numbers aren't that strong in comparison to usual PTA successes, having an average of about 2 k as it expanded to about 60 theaters.


This Week

Marlowe



Liam Neeson's films have seen declining box office results for nearly a decade now. While this seems to have more going for it on paper than some of Liam Neeson's other films, being the latest iteration of the classic film noir character Phillip Marlowe, and being directed by Neil Jordan, I don't think it will change much. This film's distributor, Open Road FIlms, has struggled to regain their footing as a mini-major distributor after AMC and Regal sold their stakes in the company, and seems to mostly release Liam Neeson's films these days. Competition from Ant-Man won't help, and critical reception is poor.

I expect it to open to 2 m over the 3-day weekend, 3 m over it's 5-day opening, and 4 m over it's 7-day opening. In total, it should
gross about 8 m.

I expect it to get a score in the range of 4 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 0 PTA points.

Don't take it in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Ant-Man And The Wasp: Quantamania



The Ant-Man franchise has had somewhat of an interesting history. When the first film opened, its 57 m opening was considered a bit of a disappointment by some, especially following the mixed reception to the previous MCU film Avengers: Age Of Ultron. However, strong WOM and a lack of family competition helped it develop very strong legs for a MCU film, ultimately grossing 180 m. Following a well-received role by the character in Captain America: Civil War, it's sequel Ant-Man And The Wasp opened three years later in 2018, during which the MCU had grown even larger in terms of popularity, with Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War breaking records months before its release. It ended up grossing 75 m on its OW, and 216 m in total, which was an improvement over the original, though still one of the lower grossing MCU films.

It came as a bit of a surprise (at least to me), then, when the third Ant-Man film was announced to be the film that would start Phase 5, and set up the main antagonist for the next Avengers movies. While I would say that I think the marketing has done a decent job at setting up the stakes, tracking has decreased recently, and mixed-negative reviews won't help. I once thought this would be the highest grossing film of the first four months of 2023, but now I can say that is rather unlikely.

I expect an opening of 90 m over the 3-day, and 110 m over the 4-day. In total, it should gross about 220 m.

I expect it to get a score in the range of 6 on IMDb, 15-20 Top 5 points, and 10-12 PTA points.

Despite my kind of harsh words about its potential, I still think it's a great option in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Limited Releases

Emily



I don't see this doing as well as it might have done even five years ago. Like the aforementioned Open Road Films, Bleecker Street has had a pretty poor track record at the box office as of late, and while this seems to be in their wheelhouse, there hasn't been much buzz surrounding it despite strong reviews and being about a well-known author. Maybe this surprises, but its odds aren't looking that great at the moment.

I expect a PTA around 7 k over the 3-day, 9 k over the 4-day, and a total around 2 m.

I expect it to get a score in the range of 7 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 3-5 PTA points.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Of An Age



Despite strong reviews, I don't expect much in terms of box office for this. Like Open Road Films and Bleecker Street mentioned above, Focus has a rather rough time recently, and I believe this will be released semi-wide, which is horrible news for almost any movie looking for a lot of PTA points.

I expect an opening of about 200 k over the 3-day, about 250 k over the 4-day (I imagine its PTA will be very small, maybe around 2 k for the 4-day), and a total under 1 m.

I expect it to get a score in the range of 7 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 0 PTA points.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Return To Seoul



I have a feeling this could be a surprise upset this weekend (and maybe after) in terms of PTA, despite not getting a Oscar nomination. Reviews are very strong, and being from Sony Pictures Classics means it's unlikely to open in many theaters initially.

I expect an opening PTA of about 8 k over the 3-day, and about 10 k over the 4-day. In total, I could see it grossing about 2 m.

I expect it to get a score in the range of 8 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 10-15 PTA points.

I would recommend taking it in Ultimate, but not Box Office.

Other Releases Of Note

I do not believe that it is in the game, but the 2023 Oscar-Nominated Shorts: Animated And Live-Action compilation will probably also do well in terms of PTA, maybe outgrossing Close and Magic Mike's Last Dance this weekend in terms of PTA. I do not believe that What About Love or What Comes Around are being released this weekend.

PTA

Ant-Man...
Return To Seoul
Emily
Magic Mike's Last Dance
Close

Top 5

Ant-Man... - 90 m (110 m over the 4-day)
Avatar: The Way Of Water - 6 m (8 m over the 4-day)
Magic Mike's Last Dance - 5 m (7 m over the 4-day)
80 For Brady - 4 m (6 m over the 4-day)
Titanic 3 m (4 m over the 4-day)

Next Week

Join us next week for when transformers looks at the cinematic event of the year (Cocaine Bear), as well as some other movies.

[Buscemi2]

Both Ant-Man and Marlowe have been slammed by critics. Ant-Man is probably critic-proof but Marlowe needed good reviews to have any sort of appeal.

Emily is getting a wide expansion next Friday and I have seen a lot more for it than Marlowe. In addition, just about anything about Victorian England plays well in the States so it could do okay numbers in the end.

[transformers2]

Of an Age's estimated theater count is 250, so not quite semi-wide, but definitely enough to make it a longshot to rack up any meaningful PTA points. I'm still keeping it on my ULT slate though since it will at least get a good IMDb score for $2.

[transformers2]

Quantumania did $17.5 mil in previews last night

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascore:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: B (equal to Eternals, so not good for Marvel)

[transformers2]

3-day weekend estimates:
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $104 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $6.1 mil
Magic Mike's Last Dance $5.4 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $5.3 mil
Knock at the Cabin $3.9 mil
80 for Brady $3.6 mil
Titanic Re-Issue $2.3 mil
Marlowe $1.9 mil
Missing $1.7 mil
A Man Called Otto $1.6 mil

-Of an Age $411k
-Emily $40k
-Return to Seoul $31k

[Screen203]

3-day weekend estimates:
Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $104 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $6.1 mil
Magic Mike's Last Dance $5.4 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $5.3 mil
Knock at the Cabin $3.9 mil
80 for Brady $3.6 mil
Titanic Re-Issue $2.3 mil
Marlowe $1.9 mil
Missing $1.7 mil
A Man Called Otto $1.6 mil

-Of an Age $411k
-Emily $40k
-Return to Seoul $31k

Those numbers seem very strong for Of An Age and especially Return To Seoul (at least in comparison to the way most arthouse releases have performed lately).

[Buscemi2]

Of an Age failed to clear $2,000 PTA and it had a large Friday share before steady drops. This is probably the widest it plays.

[transformers2]

3-Day Weekend Actuals:
1.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $106.1 mil
2.Avatar: The Way of Water $6.6 mil
3.Magic Mike's Last Dance $5.4 mil
4.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $5.3 mil
5.Knock at the Cabin $4 mil
6.80 for Brady $3.8 mil
7.Titanic Re-Issue $2.4 mil
8.Marlowe $1.81 mil
9.Missing $1.77 mil
10.A Man Called Otto $1.6 mil

-Of an Age $367k
-Emily $40k
-Return to Seoul $27k

PTA:
1.Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $24,421
2.Return to Seoul $13,657 (2 theaters)
3.Emily $8,057 (5 theaters)
4.Avatar: The Way of Water $2,448
5.Magic Mike's Last Dance $1,790

-Of an Age $1,270 (289 theaters)