SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by numbersix »

The King has been conquered! Finally, after who-knows-how-many weeks, Avatar 2: The Way of Water (what does that even mean? Just holding your breath?) has been knocked from the top spot of the box office. All it took is the might of M Night Shyamalan’s towering A Knock at the Cabin, with its typical ridiculous twist, to kick Cameron off the hill, just about. And not only that, a bunch of octogenarians kicked him in the way down, as the oldie sports movie 80s for Brady took the #2 spot (probably because they have no control over their #1s). But Cameron ain’t done yet.





Yes, for Cameron is so obsessed with his comeback that Titanic (Paramount) is returning to screens. I guess $2.1 billion globally over the last three months just ain’t enough. The 1997 hit, the first film to make over $1b worldwide (until Avatar came along), the film is regarded as a classic. Personally, I think it has dated badly in all but effects, but I’m clearly in the minority. Indeed, the film was re-released already, 5 years ago in 3D, where it earned $57 domestically, enough cash for Cameron to conduct tests to provide that Jack couldn’t have stayed on the piece of wood. It might have been too soon for another release, but given the Valentine’s Day proximity, this should fare better than most re-releases. An $8-10m opening and a cume of $22m is possibly, but it could go higher. It feels a little steep for $9in Ultimate, and would need to make $30m to justify the cost in BO. But we should know by now never to bet against Cameron, lest he waste millions conducting more tests to prove the Twittersphere wrong.




Just when you thought the dangling was done, we’re back with Magic Mike’s Last Dance (Warner). I’ve no idea what the plot of any of them are about, but if you want rock hard pecs and bulging… er… thighs, then surely this will salve the savage soul. Steven Soderbergh returns (having skipped the first sequel) with Channing Tatum starring alongside Salma Hayek, with the film set in London. The sequel saw a significant step down from the original, despite the cult love for these films. With 80s for Brady doing well as counter-programming, this may not rise to the occasion of XXL’s $66m, but being the only show in town this weekend, we should see a mid teens opening and a cume in the $40s. In Ultimate its $12 should see 8 Top 5 points, 2-3 PTA, and a IMDB score in the mid 5s. That’s worth a risk. In BO that same price is probably not worth the seedy price of admission.




In terms of limited releases, Of an Age was pushed, leaving Consecration (IFC), the latest horror from always-average-rarely-awful Chris Smith. Starring Jena Malone and Danny Huston, it involves an American woman travelling to a Scottish island to investigate her brother’s death. With reviews poor and the IFC Midnight release, this is no Skinamarink, and will fail to earn you anything. Avoid.


Predictions for the Weekend

1. Magic Mike's Last Dance - $15m
2. 80s for Brady - $8m
3. Avatar 2 – 7.8m
4. Titanic 2: Rose’s Revenge - $7.5m
5. A Knock at the Cabin - $6m

PTA: Magic Mike, Close, Titanic, Avatar, 80s


Join us next weekend, when Screen will woo us all with his take on What About Love, as well as Ant-Man 3, Emily, What Comes Around, Return to Seoul, and Of an Age.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

Magic Mike's early word is not the best and seems like it would have been better off as a HBO Max title. But it should move plenty of mixed drinks and rosé.

TItanic's release seems to be limited to 3-D showings and it doesn't look to be too wide either. Also, Paramount has not marketed it well at all.

Meanwhile, Consecration looks to be a wide release and is getting more showings at theatres than Skinamarink. It probably won't do any business but it could get some praise from horror fans for actually having a story and not consisting of shots of ceilings and the tops of old TV's.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by transformers2 »

After seeing what Avatar did in its re-release last fall, I've convinced myself that everybody is collectively lowballing Titanic and that it's going to clear double digits with ease. I could end up being completely wrong, but I refuse to underestimate the power of Jim Cameron again damn it!
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm going tomorrow as I've never seen Titanic in a theatre. Only two tickets have been sold for the noon showing at one of the two theatres showing it.

Magic Mike will at least triple TItanic's weekend take. Maybe quadruple if Tatum diehards choose to watch the Kelce vs. Kelce action instead.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by Buscemi2 »

It looks like the hype over another Magic Mike was nothing but hot air.

Weekend numbers:
1. Magic Mike's Last Dance $8.2 million (this is less than what the first two made on their opening days)
2. Avatar $6.9 million
3. Titanic $6.4 million
4. 80 for Brady $6 million (53% drop)
5. Knock at the Cabin $5.5 million (61% drop)
Puss in Boots $5.5 million ($1,000 separate Knock and Puss)
A Man Called Otto $2.6 million
Missing $2.6 million ($25,000 separate Otto and Missing)
M3gan $2.4 million
Plane $1.2 million
Consecration $0.4 million

PTA rankings:
Magic Mike
Titanic
Close
Avatar
Puss in Boots

Tatum might have to rethink his career after a rare flop for him while Soderbergh should finally hang it up. But then again, Ridley Scott refuses to retire. It also makes you wonder what Warner Bros. will do with the remaining HBO Max features, of which there are three without dates. Could those get sold off or simply get the Batgirl treatment and never see the light of day?
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/10

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Magic Mike's Last Dance $8.3 mil
2.Avatar: The Way of Water $7.2 mil
3.Titanic Re-Issue $6.7 mil
4.80 for Brady $5.8 mil
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $5.6 mil
6.Knock at the Cabin $5.4 mil
7.A Man Called Otto $2.6 mil
8.Missing $2.55 mi
9.M3GAN $2.4 mil
10.Plane $1.2 mil

-Consecration $324k

PTA:
1.Magic Mike's Last Dance $5,536
2.Titanic Re-Issue $2,725
3.Close $2,463 (61 theaters)
4.Avatar: The Way of Water $2,354
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $1,729

-Consecration $433 (762 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
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