Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

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With only a couple of modest new wide releases entering theaters on the final weekend of January, not much changed from the previous weekend at the box office.

Avatar and Puss in Boots continue to wrack up dough at an impressive rate, A Man Called Otto and M3GAN are also still nicely chugging along and Missing was able to parlay its good exits/slight OW overperformance into a good second weekend hold (-38% to be exact). About the only surprise that occured was the $6.9 mil haul from the Hindi action title Pathaan made in just 695 theaters, which is just the latest sign that titles from all over India are starting to really gain traction in the US/Canada market.

The indie market also got a nice boost from the debuts of One Fine Morning ($13,048 in 3 theaters) and especially Oscar-nominated Close ($68,143 in 4 theaters). This increase in foot traffic is likely short-live as February is pretty much a ghost town for noteworthy limited releases, but the specialty circuit will take whatever spoils they can get at this point.

Wide Releases:
Roughly 24 hours from now, much of the world is going to get hit with a new wave of Shyamalan Fever!!!!

That's right folks, Philadelphia's most polarizing export since liquid cheese is back with feature #15 entitled Knock at the Cabin (Universal). This psychological horror flick based on the Paul Tremblay novel “The Cabin at the End of the World” focuses on a family (Jonathan Groff, Ben Alridge, Kristen Cui) who have their peaceful vacation at a remote lakeside cabin suddenly disrupted by the arrival of 4 strangers (Dave Bautista, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Rupert Grint, Abby Quinn) who hold them hostage and force them to make an unthinkable choice: sacrifice 1 member of the family or allow the apocalypse to kill everyone on Earth.

Outside of his nearly career-killing run from “Lady in the Water” through “After Earth”, Shyamalan's movies have been able to perform at least respectably despite the notoriously divided receptions to the vast majority of them. Given its pretty low budget ($20 mil) and status as the first prominent wide release in 3 weeks, “Knock at the Cabin” seems destined to be another winner for Mr. Shyamalan.

The hook has been conveyed clearly and effectively in the marketing, Universal has been pushing it consistently over the past few months and while not without the typical notably strong reactions from both sides of the spectrum, the critical word has been generally positive. Assuming audiences don't react really poorly to the ending, it should at least be able to eclipse the $48.3 mil take that Old managed to post in a compromised market back in the summer of 2021.

Price: $15 ULT/$14 BO
Predictions: $13-23 mil OW/4-9 PTA/8-13 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDB/$38-75 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: There's enough gray area in its BO forecast to be leery about its ability to perform as well as something like the slightly more expensive Scream IV or slightly cheaper January highlight M3GAN, but if the good early word translates to audiences, it should end up being a solid value.


NFL football and the old lady buddy hangout movie didn't seem 2 worlds that would ever come together, but alas 80 for Brady (Paramount) has arrived to remind the world that some marriages are really unexpected. This celebration of timeless friendship and Tom Brady's limitless ego that is allegedly inspired by a true story that sees 4 octogenarians (Jane Fonda, Lilly Tomlin, Rita Moreno, Sally Field) shakeup their boring lives in suburbia by heading down to Houston to watch their favorite football player take on the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl 51. Conveniently, this also happens to be the Super Bowl where Brady led the New England Patriots to the biggest comeback victory in the history of the NFL's title game.

As recently as a month ago, I thought 80 for Brady was going to be completely DOA as a result of its “old ladies getting into hijinks at the Super Bowl” logline. Over the past couple of weeks, I've done a complete U-turn on its potential. The previews last weekend reportedly did well in most parts of the country and something that's so purposefully lighthearted and full of familiar faces could strike a chord with older audiences that are looking to have a good time in a movie theater. The tracking numbers for this weekend are up to $10 mil, but I think there's a very solid chance it's able to clear that number and hold nicely during a month where it has its particular demographic all to itself.
Price: $5 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions: $8-17 mil OW/1-5 PTA/5-11 Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDB/$24-63 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given its thrifty price tag and sleeper hit upside, it should be a terrific pickup in either format.


Limited Release:
Good news parents who will take their kids to see any animated release that hits theaters: a British movie about a con artist cat voiced by Hugh Laurie is coming out this weekend!!! Bad news for the people who made and are putting out the movie: The Amazing Maurice (Global Screen) isn't going to make a dent in fellow feline Puss in Boots' current cartoon movie monopoly. Its reception over in the UK was merely alright and like last weekend's Maybe I Do, it's only set to play in several hundred theaters and hasn't received much in the way of promotion from its potentially new distributor.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $50-110k OW/0 PTA or top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB/$90-$200k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it'll definitely earn more money than most $2 ULT/$1 BO titles, that isn't enough to justify putting it on your slates.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Knock at the Cabin $18 mil
2.80 for Brady $13 mil
3.Avatar: The Way of Water $11 mil
4.The Chosen: Season 3 Finale $10 mil
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $9 mil

PTA: Knock at the Cabin, Close, 80 for Brady, Avatar: The Way of Water, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Tune in next week when six previews the box prospects of James Cameron's latest re-release and the swan song of one Magic Mike.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

It looks like 80 for Brady's going to be critic-proof. One of the few football YouTubers I follow, JaguarGator9, got to see an advance screening and disliked it.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

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Weekend Estimates:
Knock at the Cabin $14.2 mil
80 for Brady $12.5 mil
Avatar: The Way of Water $10.8 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $8 mil
BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas $6.2 mil
A Man Called Otto $4.2 mil
M3GAN $3.8 mil
Missing $3.7 mil
The Chosen Season 3 Finale $3.6 mil
Pathaan $2.7 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Knock at the Cabin $14.1 mil
2.80 for Brady $12.7 mil
3.Avatar: The Way of Water $11.3 mil
4.BTS: Yet to Come in Cinemas $8 mil
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $7.9 mil
6.A Man Called Otto $4.3 mil
7.M3GAN $3.8 mil
8.Missing $3.7 mil
9.The Chosen Season 3 Finale $3.6 mil
10.Pathaan $2.8 mil

-The Amazing Maurice $1.5 mil

PTA:
1.Close $5,903 (20 theaters)
2.Knock at the Cabin $3,877
3.Avatar: The Way of Water $3,424
4.80 for Brady $3,247
5.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $2,282

-The Amazing Maurice $854 (1,712 theaters)

BOM didn't update One Fine Morning's theater totals on their chart. It played in 12 theaters, so it's real PTA was only $1,538
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 2/3

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm surprised The Amazing Maurice got that many theatres. It didn't even play near me.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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