Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - January 20th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

Avatar: The Way Of Water held strong over the Martin Luther King Day holiday, dropping only 28 percent to gross nearly 33 m over the 3-day, and about 40 m over the 4-day. In second, M3gan had a solid second weekend, dropping only 40 percent to gross 18 m over the 3-day, and 21 m over the 4-day. In third, Puss In Boots: The Last Wish continued to have impressive legs, actually increasing over the last weekend, grossing 14 m over the 3-day, and about 19 m over the 4-day. A Man Called Otto has been doing rather well, and had a solid wide expansion with nearly 13 m over the 3-day, and 15 m over the 4-day. Plane opened to okay numbers, grossing 10 m over the 3-day, and nearly 13 m over the 4-day. The other new releases House Party and The Devil Conspiracy were non-starters, with the former grossing 4 m over the 3-day, and almost 5 m over the 4-day, and the latter not even grossing 1 m over the 4-day weekend. On the limited release side side, Women Talking had a solid hold, grossing over the 3-day, and over the 4-day. On one hand, it seems that positive WOM and MGM's scaled-back expansion is helping it at the box office after its underwhelming OW. On the other, it has been mostly passed up for awards, so it may not get the extra publicity MGM is probably hoping for.

This Week

Missing



I have seen very little in the way of hype for this, despite strong reviews. While Searching was a critical and commercial success, I don't think many were asking for a spiritual successor (though I am pretty excited to see it this weekend), and the Screenlife format has never seemed to draw huge crowds in theaters. Additionally, there is heavy competition from M3gan, which is aiming for the same audience. Still, movies from Screen Gems seem to always get enough of a niche audience to get an okay OW, and WOM should be strong from there (though there will be another heavy hitter aiming for much of the same audience in Knock At The Cabin two weeks from its opening day, and then it faces the Super Bowl the next weekend, so its legs could be cut off early).

I see a 6 m OW, and a 15 m total.

It will get 0 PTA points, as well as0 Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

I would not recommend taking it in either Box Office and Ultimate, though it will likely be a success for Sony considering its low budget.

The Son



This had a lot of hype a few months ago, with it being the follow-up to The Father and buzz over Hugh Jackman's performance... until people saw it. While not completely scathing, reviews coming out of the festivals were not good, and the reception hasn't improved at all since. Add in a confusing release schedule and a lack of marketing, and this will be going nowhere.

I see a debut PTA of about 2 k, and a total under 1 million.

It will get 0 PTA points, and a score in the range of 4 on IMDb.

Don't take it in either Box Office or Ultimate.


Alice, Darling



While there has been buzz around Anna Kendrick's performance, there has been next-to-no marketing for this. Lionsgate has had a rather questionable track record recently in terms of box office, which doesn't help it, and the arthouse market is fairly crowded at the moment. I also am assuming it will be a semi-wide release, which has had very little success over the past few years.

I see an opening under 1 million, and a total of 2 m.

It may get 1 PTA point, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

When You've Finished Saving The World



Jesse Eisenberg's directorial debut got okay reviews out of Sundance last year and has a strong cast, but A24 seems to be unimpressed, and is essentially dumping it this weekend in favor of their other film Close. I wouldn't expect much from this one (in fact, I'm not sure that grosses for it will even be reported).

It will get 0 PTA points, and a score in the range of 6 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.

Close



This is actually most likely the best choice this week, at least in Ultimate. Reviews have been very strong, and it is a potential Best International FIlm contender. A run similar to Aftersun may be possible.

It will get 5-8 PTA points, and a score in the range of 8 on IMDb.

Don't take it in Box Office, but it should get a few PTA points in Ultimate.


Top 5

Avatar: The Way Of Water - 20 m
M3gan - 12 m
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - 10 m
A Man Called Otto - 10 m
Plane - 6 m

PTA

Close
Women Talking
Broker
Avatar: The Way Of Water
M3gan

Join transformers next week for a slate of potential 100 k grossers, as well as Brandon Cronenberg's Infinity Pool.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Close is coming out next weekend. A24 pushed it back a week sometime last month.

Anyways, Missing did $765k in previews-so it should end somewhere in its mid-to-high single digit tracking range.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I seem to recall those Regal Mystery Movie previews for Missing did well.

Meanwhile, two theatres near me got When You Finish Saving the World, so it probably got a few hundred theatres. However, said theatres are only running one show a night, so the per theatre average is going to be very poor.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on January 20th, 2023, 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Similar situation with When You Finish Saving the World up here. There are 5 theaters playing it (4 Showcase locations and 1 Landmark) and each of them except for the Landmark-which is only showing it once-are doing 2 showings per day.

As Screen alluded to above, The Son is also doomed as it's getting a similar treatment in 500 or so theaters. It's descent from Oscar hopeful to full blown dump job has been wild to watch.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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The Son was already doomed when it played at Venice and got mixed reviews. Venice also killed any buzz on White Noise, though that didn't stop Netflix from pouring millions in an ad campaign that's still going nearly two months after its debut.

Meanwhile, the lack of ad campaigns has been the status quo for Sony lately. Unless they've got blind faith in an actor who hasn't been a box office draw since, well, ever, their titles haven't gotten much in the way of ad campaigns.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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I didn't realize The Son's reviews were as bad as they are - it has a 27 percent on Rotten Tomatoes! (Though it's Metacritic score is better at 50 percent).

The preview number for Missing seems very solid, at least in comparison to its budget. Are the Regal Mystery Movie numbers rolled in with it?
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Yes, I believe the Regal Mystery Movie screenings are a part of Missing's preview total.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Weekend Estimates:
Avatar: The Way of Water $20 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $11.5 mil
M3GAN $9.8 mil
Missing $9.3 mil
A Man Called Otto $9 mil
Plane $5.3 mil
House Party $1.8 mil
That Time I Got Reincarnated as a Slime the Movie: Scarlet Bond $1.5 mil
The Whale/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $1.3 mil
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $20.1 mil
2.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $11.8 mil
3.M3GAN $9.7 mil
4.Missing $9.1 mil
5.A Man Called Otto $8.8 mil
6.Plane $5.3 mil
7.House Party $1.7 mil
8.That Time I Got Reincarnated As a Slime... $1.5 mil
9.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $1.4 mil
10.The Whale $1.3 mil

-The Son $213k
-When You Finish Saving the World $141k
-Alice, Darling $101k

PTA:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $5,312
2.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $3,270
3.Missing $3,026
4.M3GAN $2,675
5.Women Talking $2,460 (154 theaters)

-Alice, Darling $1,553 (65 theaters)
-The Son $385 (554 theaters)
-When You Finish Saving the World $350 (403 theaters)
Last edited by transformers2 on January 23rd, 2023, 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

Post by Chienfantome »

transformers2 wrote:
January 23rd, 2023, 6:43 pm
As of now, Alice, Darling didn't report.
It seems BOM reports $101,000 (estimated) for Alice, Darling, but they didn't put it in yellow as it seems they never included it in their release schedule, strangely.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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Thanks for the heads-up. They must've added it to the chart right after I got off.
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 20th

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It wasn't listed as a new title as it already had an Oscar run in December. Strangely, they didn't do the same with The Son, which played a week in November before being pulled from release.
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