SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by numbersix »

Forget Christmas, it’s the holidays again. Why Martin Luther King decided to be born on the third Monday of every January is beyond me, couldn’t he have waited until, say, the 2nd Friday of April? This 3-day weekend has in the past acted as an opportunity for an early box office hit. 3 years ago Bad Boys For Life (a title which is mentioned by the characters in every single scene, I might add) opened on MLK weekend to become the biggest US film of the year, thanks to COVID. And prior to that films like Glass, Doolittle, and American Sniper all performed extremely well. But will the three new “wide” releases have a chance to make a dent in the box office?

In a word, no.

In five words: not a chance in hell.

With Avatar: The (Long, Scenic) Way of Water holding so well, M364N surprising with its strong opening last week, and Tom Hanks vehicle A Man Called Otto expanding exceedingly well, it’s basically a scuffle for the dregs.





Best chances go to Plane (Lionsgate), a film so generic that they picked a random word from the script as the title. It should have been called Plain. It’s a Gerard Butler actioner. He shoots guns on planes. Or blows up a plane. Or has a swordfight using planes instead of swords. Who knows. But, despite my snobby cynicism, Butler does draw an audience and his 2020 film Greenland performed beyond low-set expectations. Well, abroad, at least. If it draws an audience, it could open to $10m over the long weekend and finish up in the mid 20s. That’ll net you 2-3 T5 points, 1 PTA, a low 6 IMDB score, and that’s being generous. Sadly, not worth spending $8 in either game.




Next in line is The Devil Conspiracy (Samuel Goldwyn) is a horror film about the Archangel Michael slumming it by floating down to earth to battle the devil. Presumably played by Elon Musk. It seems like the kind of generic glossy horror you’d get in the 90s. Not much info is available on the release strategy, but since Megan sucked up the horror audience, and despite the potential Friday the 13th bump, this is still going to box-office hell. A sub $5m opening, a sub $10m cume, makes it pointless for your $4/5.




And just when we thought we had hit rock bottom, along comes House Party (Warner), a very loose remake of the 90s comedy feature Kid and Play (what happened to them? Guess they became Adult and Work). Originally slated for HBO Max, then pushed from last December, this looks like a dump of a release, coming out in over a hundred theatres (but less than 1000, it seems). It falls in the dreaded no-mans-land for this game, meaning no stats in Ultimate, and it won’t even hit $5m in BO. Run away as if the cops can been called.



Weekend Predictions

1. Avatar 2 - $28m (34m 4-day)
2. Megan - $13m (15m 4-day)
3. Puss in Boots 2 - $9m (11m 4-day)
4. A Man Called Otto - $8m (10m 4-day)
5. Plane- $7m (9m 4-day)

PTA: Avatar 2, Megan, Women Talking, Otto, Broker


Next week sees 5 fledgling films fighting against the lanky smurfs. Screen will offer insight on wide release MISSING and limited films The Son, Close, Darling, and When You Finish Saving the World.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have not seen one ad for Plane and the only time I've seen anything for House Party was ironically on HBO Max. And as the original House Party is now in the National Film Registry, it really drives home how pointless of an idea to remake it (albeit in name only) was.

As for The Devil's Conspiracy, who exactly is the audience for this? Evangelicals almost never see R-rated movies. Horror fans don't want to be preached to (unless it's Eli Roth demonizing everything that doesn't appeal to teenage boys). And every attempt at trying to combine the two has failed miserably. I have to imagine the evenings-only run of Skinamarink has a better PTA, as there's been more marketing. Even though early word has been lukewarm and it looks like every other recent attempt at retro horror (all style, no scares), I'm sure it will bring in those who swear by Shudder or already saw Child's Play 2019 Part 2: It's Annabelle with Tech This Time and want another horror film hyped up around TikTok memes.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on January 10th, 2023, 9:27 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

numbersix wrote:
January 10th, 2023, 4:30 pm

Best chances go to Plane (Lionsgate), a film so generic that they picked a random word from the script as the title. It should have been called Plain. It’s a Gerard Butler actioner. He shoots guns on planes. Or blows up a plane. Or has a swordfight using planes instead of swords. Who knows. But, despite my snobby cynicism, Butler does draw an audience and his 2020 film Greenland performed beyond low-set expectations. Well, abroad, at least. If it draws an audience, it could open to $10m over the long weekend and finish up in the mid 20s. That’ll net you 2-3 T5 points, 1 PTA, a low 6 IMDB score, and that’s being generous. Sadly, not worth spending $8 in either game.
Hey now!!!!

I've had a bit of a different experience with marketing exposure for this weekend's films than Boosh has. I've seen the trailer in theaters for Plane about 6-7 times since late October and have seen a number of TV/social media spots in recent weeks. Regardless, it still seems like something that's going to open in the mid-to-high single digits.

House Party, on the other hand, is the least activity I've seen for a major studio project since Easter Sunday. I saw the greenband teaser in front of Black Adam, a few banner ad's in the Bleacher Report app when I was checking football scores over the weekend (Warner is their parent company, so that tracks) and a YouTube commercial yesterday. Barring a massive theater count, I'd be shocked if it made more than $2-3 mil.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

How is it that so many people don't know how to use software that blocks ads? All you need to do is download it onto your browser and you never have to have your YouTube videos interrupted again.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

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Well aware of ad-blocking services, just don't share your disdain for YouTube ad's and also happen to predominantly use that wonderful video service on my phone.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by numbersix »

Seems like House Party will open in around 1500 theatres. Still won't make $1m this weekend, though.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

Not making $1 million in a four-day weekend is impressive...ly bad.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Screen203 »

numbersix wrote:
January 12th, 2023, 8:54 am
Seems like House Party will open in around 1500 theatres. Still won't make $1m this weekend, though.
Buscemi2 wrote:
January 12th, 2023, 8:59 am
Not making $1 million in a four-day weekend is impressive...ly bad.
transformers2 wrote:
January 10th, 2023, 5:14 pm
numbersix wrote:
January 10th, 2023, 4:30 pm

Best chances go to Plane (Lionsgate), a film so generic that they picked a random word from the script as the title. It should have been called Plain. It’s a Gerard Butler actioner. He shoots guns on planes. Or blows up a plane. Or has a swordfight using planes instead of swords. Who knows. But, despite my snobby cynicism, Butler does draw an audience and his 2020 film Greenland performed beyond low-set expectations. Well, abroad, at least. If it draws an audience, it could open to $10m over the long weekend and finish up in the mid 20s. That’ll net you 2-3 T5 points, 1 PTA, a low 6 IMDB score, and that’s being generous. Sadly, not worth spending $8 in either game.
Hey now!!!!

I've had a bit of a different experience with marketing exposure for this weekend's films than Boosh has. I've seen the trailer in theaters for Plane about 6-7 times since late October and have seen a number of TV/social media spots in recent weeks. Regardless, it still seems like something that's going to open in the mid-to-high single digits.

House Party, on the other hand, is the least activity I've seen for a major studio project since Easter Sunday. I saw the greenband teaser in front of Black Adam, a few banner ad's in the Bleacher Report app when I was checking football scores over the weekend (Warner is their parent company, so that tracks) and a YouTube commercial yesterday. Barring a massive theater count, I'd be shocked if it made more than $2-3 mil.
When the trailer for House Party first came out, I thought it could do decent business (and I assumed that the move from HBO to theaters was a positive sign for it's quality). Considering the way it's been dumped, I have to wonder why they bothered moving it to theaters.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

House Party made $1.4 million opening day. Somehow not completely awful.

As Warner Bros. apparently didn't do Cinemascore polling (I'd guess somewhere in the A-/B+ range), I don't know if it will have legs but I'm going to guess this end up making $4 million over the four-day weekend.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

Well, that's a spot-on estimate Boosh because that's precisely where Deadline has it at the moment. That not-so-bad figure for a movie playing in 1,400 theaters came as a particular shock to me since the showing I went to last night was easily among the emptiest (8 people including myself) that I've been to over the past 18 months. Guess that just serves as a reminder that what happens at your local theater isn't necessarily indictive of everywhere.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

If you think that's bad, I was the only person at the showing of Saint Omer I went to yesterday. It will likely get an Oscar nomination and reviews have been excellent but the PTA numbers will be terrible. Neon seemingly opened it in every Alamo Drafthouse location and at some, such as my local location, it's only playing one matinee a day.

On the other hand, Prey for the Devil somehow did really well here. Of course, said theatre that played it for two months closed for good a few weeks later so maybe they just couldn't get too many new movies (even though M3gan had advance screenings on the final day of business).
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by numbersix »

My favourite screening for the public was The Conjuring 2, when I watched it alone in a big theatres in the middle of the day, in a part of London that was 30 mins away from the "true" story. Lesson leaned: never watch a horror in a large auditorium by yourself.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

numbersix wrote:
January 14th, 2023, 8:53 pm
My favourite screening for the public was The Conjuring 2, when I watched it alone in a big theatres in the middle of the day, in a part of London that was 30 mins away from the "true" story. Lesson leaned: never watch a horror in a large auditorium by yourself.
Shit, that must've been a deeply unnerving experience. Were you caught off guard by being the only one there?
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by Buscemi2 »

I actually prefer to watch horror movies alone. I've found that too many times, the crowd ruins the proceedings by trying to outdo each other in obnoxiousness.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/13

Post by transformers2 »

3-day Weekend Estimates:
Avatar: The Way of Water $31.1 mil
M3GAN $17.9 mil
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $13.4 mil
A Man Called Otto $12.7 mil
Plane $10 mil
House Party $3.9 mil
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $2.2 mil
The Whale $1.5 mil
I Wanna Dance with Somebody $1.2 mil
Waltair Veeraya $1.1 mil
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