Screening The Releases - January 6th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - January 6th

Post by Screen203 »

(If anyone planned to post a column this week, I can delete this. I didn't see anyone on the schedule.)

Last Week

Avatar: The Way Of Water held on to the top spot with 67 m over the 3-day (gaining 6 percent from last weekend), and 88 m over the 4-day weekend. In second, Puss In Boots: The Last Wish saved a lot of face after it's mediocre OW with almost 17 m (gaining 35 percent) over the 3-day, and about 22 m over the 4-day. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continues to show strong late legs, grossing 5 m (a 47 percent gain) over the 3-day, and about 7 m over the 4-day. The last two spots in the Top 5 were filled by last week's underperformers, as Whitney Houston... grossed almost 4 m over the 3-day (dropping 16 percent), and 5 m over the 4-day, and Babylon grossed about 3 m over the 3-day (dropping 28 percent), and about 4 m over the 4-day. As for limited releases, A Man Called Otto debuted to a 14 k PTA (17 k over the 4-day), which I would say is fine considering the constantly-changing release strategy. Less impressive was Broker, which debuted to a 7 k PTA over the 3-day, less than Corsage in its second week (about 9 k over the 3-day - no numbers for either have been given for the 4-day at this time).

This Week

M3gan



Buzz has been high for this Blumhouse/Atomic Monster co-production since the trailer was released in October (in particular, the dancing scene went viral online). While the January release date and its PG-13 rating didn't inspire much in the way of confidence in its quality (though neither are necessarily as damning as some state they are), the reviews have been incredibly positive for this type of film so far. All of this is adding up to this being the blockbuster of January, seemingly putting an end to the trend of quality titles like The Devil Inside :lol: being released on this weekend.

I see a 24 m OW, and a 70 m total.

It will get 4-6 PTA points, around 10, and possibly 15 or more Top 5 points, and a score in the range of 7 on IMDb.

I would recommend taking it in both Box Office and Ultimate, especially considering the lack of sure bets between this and Knock At The Cabin/Magic Mike's Last Dance.


Top 5

Avatar: The Way Of Water - 42 m
M3gan - 24 m
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish - 12 m
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 3 m
A Man Called Otto - 3 m

PTA

Avatar: The Way Of Water
M3gan
A Man Called Otto
Corsage
Living

Join six next week for a look over films such as the reboot of House Party and the imaginatively-titled Plane.
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 6th

Post by transformers2 »

M3GAN did a solid a $2.8 in previews last night and the very early weekend projection from Deadline has it at $26 mil for the weekend. With a budget of just $12 mil, it looks like another winner for Blumhouse.
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 6th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Avatar: The Way of Water $45 mil
M3GAN $30.2 mil (best start for a PG-13 horror movie since A Quiet Place Part II and it has already outgrossed 2022's top PG-13 horror title The Invitation)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $11.1 mil
A Man Called Otto $4.2 mil (pretty good performance for an adult-aimed drama that was only playing in a little over 600 theaters)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $3.4 mil
I Wanna Dance with Somebody $2.4 mil
The Whale $1.5 mil
Babylon $1.4 mil
Violent Night $741k
The Menu $713k
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 6th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I guess all horror films are going to be about trying to be memes now.

When was the last one that actually tried to be scary?
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - January 6th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $45.8 mil
2.M3GAN $30.4 mil
3.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $13.5 mil
4.A Man Called Otto $4.2 mil
5.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $3.5 mil
6.I Wanna Dance with Somebody $2.4 mil
7.The Whale $1.5 mil
8.Babylon $1.4 mil
9.Violent Night $707k
10.The Menu $686k

PTA:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $10,562
2.M3GAN $8,672
3.A Man Called Otto $6,597 (637 theaters)
4.Women Talking $4,903 (29 theaters)
5.Broker $4,336 (17 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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