Screening The Releases - December 16th
Posted: December 15th, 2022, 8:07 pm
Last Week
The last weekend before Avatar was, to say the least, slow. Not everything was awful, though, as the lack of competition meant strong holds for everything. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever held on to the top spot for a fifth and final week with 11 m, dropping 36 percent. In second, Violent Night held strong with nearly 9 m, dropping only 35 percent from its opening last weekend. In third, the underperforming Disney film Strange World dropped only 26 percent to gross nearly 4 m, which is still too little, too late like pretty much every other Thanksgiving opener still in theaters. In fourth, the sleeper hit The Menu dropped only 20 percent to gross almost 3 m, and at this point seems likely to be Searchlight's highest grossing film since 2018. Lastly, Devotion dropped 26 percent to gross 2 m. The most notable limited release was, by far, The Whale, which scored the highest PTA of 2022 with 60 k in 6 theaters. The other opener Empire Of Light did not fare as well, grossing a terrible PTA of about 1.5 k in 110 theaters. The wide expansion of Spoiler Alert didn't do much, either, grossing about 700 k in almost 800 theaters.
Avatar: The Way Of Water
13 years ago, James Cameron's Avatar opened to a solid 77 m (still the largest OW for a live-action, original film), which I believe was considered a bit disappointing at the time considering all of the hype around it's groundbreaking 3D technology. The second weekend, though, is when it really started to shine, dropping only 2 percent to gross 75 m over the Christmas weekend. After that, it was pretty much unstoppable, staying at number one until the Super Bowl weekend, ultimately grossing a stunning 749 m (785 m with its various re-releases), outgrossing Titanic to be the highest-grossing film domestically until The Force Awakens opened in 2015. Worldwide, it is still the highest grossing film of all time, with 2.9 billion in USD.
A lot has changed in the world since 2009. The once-popular 3D has taken a nosedive in popularity after backlash over poor 3D conversions grew. Avatar, itself, has not really been in the public eye as much as would probably be expected. There also has been a bit of a backlash about its unoriginal story and aforementioned lack of public visibility. Will most of this affect The Way Of Water in any signifigant way? I doubt it.
However, I don't think it's going to start huge, considering the running time is longer than Endgame in a time period where most people are busy. The winter storm won't help, either. IMO, the 150 m+ OW predictions are too high at the moment. When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see a run similar to Top Gun: Maverick, with a 125-130 m OW, and very strong legs.
I expect a 130 m OW, and a 700 m total (I imagine it will be much more backloaded than most sequels/movies in general).
It should get you 25-30 PTA points, 35-40 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I would recommend taking it in both Ultimate and Box Office.
Limited Releases
The Almond And The Seahorse
I don't expect this to do anything of note. No reviews are out at the moment, and there seems to be no buzz around it whatsoever.
I expect a total under 1 m.
It should get you 0 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
To say the least, don't take this in Ultimate or Box Office.
Top 5
Avatar: The Way Of Water - 130 m
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 7 m
Violent Night - 5 m
The Menu - 2 m
Strange World - 1 m
PTA
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Whale
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Menu
Violent Night
Miscellaneous
A Man Called Otto was originally supposed to open on Wednesday, but was pushed back to the 30th, with a wide expansion (right now, set for January 13th, but most of the theaters around me are getting it on the 6th, so it's possible the release has changed for what seems like the 200th time) following after.
Next Week
Join six for the Christmas weekend, where Avatar will more than likely still be the top choice for most, but Puss In Boots, Babylon, and The Whitney Houston Movie... open wide (along with the wide expansion of The Whale), and Women Talking opens in limited.
Other than that, there really isn't much else to say. Is anyone else seeing Avatar this weekend?
The last weekend before Avatar was, to say the least, slow. Not everything was awful, though, as the lack of competition meant strong holds for everything. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever held on to the top spot for a fifth and final week with 11 m, dropping 36 percent. In second, Violent Night held strong with nearly 9 m, dropping only 35 percent from its opening last weekend. In third, the underperforming Disney film Strange World dropped only 26 percent to gross nearly 4 m, which is still too little, too late like pretty much every other Thanksgiving opener still in theaters. In fourth, the sleeper hit The Menu dropped only 20 percent to gross almost 3 m, and at this point seems likely to be Searchlight's highest grossing film since 2018. Lastly, Devotion dropped 26 percent to gross 2 m. The most notable limited release was, by far, The Whale, which scored the highest PTA of 2022 with 60 k in 6 theaters. The other opener Empire Of Light did not fare as well, grossing a terrible PTA of about 1.5 k in 110 theaters. The wide expansion of Spoiler Alert didn't do much, either, grossing about 700 k in almost 800 theaters.
Avatar: The Way Of Water
13 years ago, James Cameron's Avatar opened to a solid 77 m (still the largest OW for a live-action, original film), which I believe was considered a bit disappointing at the time considering all of the hype around it's groundbreaking 3D technology. The second weekend, though, is when it really started to shine, dropping only 2 percent to gross 75 m over the Christmas weekend. After that, it was pretty much unstoppable, staying at number one until the Super Bowl weekend, ultimately grossing a stunning 749 m (785 m with its various re-releases), outgrossing Titanic to be the highest-grossing film domestically until The Force Awakens opened in 2015. Worldwide, it is still the highest grossing film of all time, with 2.9 billion in USD.
A lot has changed in the world since 2009. The once-popular 3D has taken a nosedive in popularity after backlash over poor 3D conversions grew. Avatar, itself, has not really been in the public eye as much as would probably be expected. There also has been a bit of a backlash about its unoriginal story and aforementioned lack of public visibility. Will most of this affect The Way Of Water in any signifigant way? I doubt it.
However, I don't think it's going to start huge, considering the running time is longer than Endgame in a time period where most people are busy. The winter storm won't help, either. IMO, the 150 m+ OW predictions are too high at the moment. When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see a run similar to Top Gun: Maverick, with a 125-130 m OW, and very strong legs.
I expect a 130 m OW, and a 700 m total (I imagine it will be much more backloaded than most sequels/movies in general).
It should get you 25-30 PTA points, 35-40 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.
I would recommend taking it in both Ultimate and Box Office.
Limited Releases
The Almond And The Seahorse
I don't expect this to do anything of note. No reviews are out at the moment, and there seems to be no buzz around it whatsoever.
I expect a total under 1 m.
It should get you 0 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.
To say the least, don't take this in Ultimate or Box Office.
Top 5
Avatar: The Way Of Water - 130 m
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 7 m
Violent Night - 5 m
The Menu - 2 m
Strange World - 1 m
PTA
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Whale
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Menu
Violent Night
Miscellaneous
A Man Called Otto was originally supposed to open on Wednesday, but was pushed back to the 30th, with a wide expansion (right now, set for January 13th, but most of the theaters around me are getting it on the 6th, so it's possible the release has changed for what seems like the 200th time) following after.
Next Week
Join six for the Christmas weekend, where Avatar will more than likely still be the top choice for most, but Puss In Boots, Babylon, and The Whitney Houston Movie... open wide (along with the wide expansion of The Whale), and Women Talking opens in limited.
Other than that, there really isn't much else to say. Is anyone else seeing Avatar this weekend?