Screening The Releases - December 16th

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - December 16th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

The last weekend before Avatar was, to say the least, slow. Not everything was awful, though, as the lack of competition meant strong holds for everything. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever held on to the top spot for a fifth and final week with 11 m, dropping 36 percent. In second, Violent Night held strong with nearly 9 m, dropping only 35 percent from its opening last weekend. In third, the underperforming Disney film Strange World dropped only 26 percent to gross nearly 4 m, which is still too little, too late like pretty much every other Thanksgiving opener still in theaters. In fourth, the sleeper hit The Menu dropped only 20 percent to gross almost 3 m, and at this point seems likely to be Searchlight's highest grossing film since 2018. Lastly, Devotion dropped 26 percent to gross 2 m. The most notable limited release was, by far, The Whale, which scored the highest PTA of 2022 with 60 k in 6 theaters. The other opener Empire Of Light did not fare as well, grossing a terrible PTA of about 1.5 k in 110 theaters. The wide expansion of Spoiler Alert didn't do much, either, grossing about 700 k in almost 800 theaters.

Avatar: The Way Of Water



13 years ago, James Cameron's Avatar opened to a solid 77 m (still the largest OW for a live-action, original film), which I believe was considered a bit disappointing at the time considering all of the hype around it's groundbreaking 3D technology. The second weekend, though, is when it really started to shine, dropping only 2 percent to gross 75 m over the Christmas weekend. After that, it was pretty much unstoppable, staying at number one until the Super Bowl weekend, ultimately grossing a stunning 749 m (785 m with its various re-releases), outgrossing Titanic to be the highest-grossing film domestically until The Force Awakens opened in 2015. Worldwide, it is still the highest grossing film of all time, with 2.9 billion in USD.

A lot has changed in the world since 2009. The once-popular 3D has taken a nosedive in popularity after backlash over poor 3D conversions grew. Avatar, itself, has not really been in the public eye as much as would probably be expected. There also has been a bit of a backlash about its unoriginal story and aforementioned lack of public visibility. Will most of this affect The Way Of Water in any signifigant way? I doubt it.

However, I don't think it's going to start huge, considering the running time is longer than Endgame in a time period where most people are busy. The winter storm won't help, either. IMO, the 150 m+ OW predictions are too high at the moment. When all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to see a run similar to Top Gun: Maverick, with a 125-130 m OW, and very strong legs.

I expect a 130 m OW, and a 700 m total (I imagine it will be much more backloaded than most sequels/movies in general).

It should get you 25-30 PTA points, 35-40 Top 5 points, and a score of 7 on IMDb.

I would recommend taking it in both Ultimate and Box Office.

Limited Releases

The Almond And The Seahorse



I don't expect this to do anything of note. No reviews are out at the moment, and there seems to be no buzz around it whatsoever.

I expect a total under 1 m.

It should get you 0 PTA points, and a score of 5 on IMDb.

To say the least, don't take this in Ultimate or Box Office.

Top 5

Avatar: The Way Of Water - 130 m
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - 7 m
Violent Night - 5 m
The Menu - 2 m
Strange World - 1 m

PTA

Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Whale
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Menu
Violent Night

Miscellaneous

A Man Called Otto was originally supposed to open on Wednesday, but was pushed back to the 30th, with a wide expansion (right now, set for January 13th, but most of the theaters around me are getting it on the 6th, so it's possible the release has changed for what seems like the 200th time) following after.

Next Week

Join six for the Christmas weekend, where Avatar will more than likely still be the top choice for most, but Puss In Boots, Babylon, and The Whitney Houston Movie... open wide (along with the wide expansion of The Whale), and Women Talking opens in limited.

Other than that, there really isn't much else to say. Is anyone else seeing Avatar this weekend?
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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I will not be seeing Avatar. No amount of dazzling visuals could convince me to sit through another one of those fucking movies.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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It's better than at least 90% of the things you did willingly sit through.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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Buscemi2 wrote:
December 16th, 2022, 6:33 pm
It's better than at least 90% of the things you did willingly sit through.
Glad you liked it man. There's basically no chance in hell I would agree. Cameron hasn't made a movie I loved since Terminator 2 and one that I even liked since True Lies.
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Screen203
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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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transformers2 wrote:
December 16th, 2022, 6:27 pm
I will not be seeing Avatar. No amount of dazzling visuals could convince me to sit through another one of those fucking movies.
:lol:

I probably won't get around to seeing it until Sunday at the earliest. One of the main reasons I predicted a OW under tracking was that, IMO, the 3 hour length is a roadblock around the holidays when everyone is busy.

Also, it opened to 17 m last night in previews, which I feel is kind of a middle-of-the-road number.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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Middle of the road might not be the fairest assessment, but $17 mil in previews definitely isn't overly impressive either. That being said, it was never going to be something like No Way Home that had people rushing out to see it to OW to avoid spoilers. Plus, incredible holds were the driving force behind the overwhelming success of the original, so we're not really going to be able to analyze how it's doing until after New Year's weekend.
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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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One has to remember that before The Force Awakens, no December opener had ever hit $100 million opening weekend. Just because Star Wars and Spider-Man did it, it doesn't mean everything will. For a sequel to a film that 1. came 13 years earlier and 2. most people seemed to hate until recently, a $130 million opening is very, very impressive, especially seeing how the film is over three hours.

And The Way of Water is going to be a big word-of-mouth title. When I saw it on Friday afternoon, the mostly full auditorium applauded at the end. I wouldn't worry about the numbers not being at No Way Home's level. It doesn't really need to be.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

Post by numbersix »

Agreed, and it's still the only 4 quadrant option over the holidays. Should make around 4 times its opening week, so will still be making over half a billion. May not beat Top Gun Maverick, though

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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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Weekend Estimates:
Avatar: The Way of Water $134 mil
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $5.4 mil
Violent Night $5 mil
Strange World $2.2 mil
The Menu $1.7 mil
Devotion $825k
The Fabelmans $750k
Black Adam $500k
I Heard the Bells $309k
Empire of Light $235k
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Screening The Releases - December 16th

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $134.1 mil
2.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $5.3 mil
3.Violent Night $5.1 mil
4.Strange World $2.2 mil
5.The Menu $1.6 mil
6.Devotion $780k
7.The Fabelmans $744k
8.It's a Wonderful Life $735k
9.Black Adam $446k
10.I Heard the Bells $310k

PTA:
1.Avatar: The Way of Water $31,913
2.The Whale $28,305
3.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $1,582
4.Violent Night $1,434
5.Triangle of Sadness $1,042

-The Almond and the Seahorse $56 (14 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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