SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 12/09
Posted: December 6th, 2022, 4:34 pm
“Ho, ho, ho – now I have a hammer” is a line probably worthy of Violent Night, a film Universal so desperately wanted to cash in on the Die-Hard-is-A-Christmas-Movie debate. And it turns out to have worked, with a trailer which sold its John-Wick-Meets-Home-Alone vibe, a lack of competition, and a release just as we’re all getting festive (well, maybe not Boosch) all contributing to a solid opening $13.4m. Elsewhere Black Panther 2 is holding well, while Spielberg self-love The Fabelmans is failing to expand decently. This week saw the House Party remake flee to January in fear of the world’ biggest mammal (no, not Brendan Fraser), so it’s only two limited releases to cover this week.
Empire of Light (Searchlight) feels like an old film. One of those kind of films our progeny will end up watching on TV on a Sunday afternoon. If TVs still exist. Or Sundays. It’s a film set in a cinema, as a relationship between an older white duty manager (Olivia Coleman) and a younger black employee (Michael Ward) blossoms during 1980s England. This is Sam Mendes’s reward after the huge hit that was 1917, but this won’t come close to that wartime rollercoaster. Reviews have called it a very gentle film, but most notably they haven’t been positive (42% RT score, for example), which is a gutpunch for a film like this. It still may win over the older audience, but it seems unlikely to break out.
Opening in about 100 theatres this weekend before expanding, it’s in the zone of death, meaning it’s unlikely to earn enough to put it in the Top 5, nor enough to make more than a handful of PTA points. That means this prestige pic is about as useful for you in Ultimate ($5) or Box Office ($4) as stocks in Blockbuster.
With more potential is The Whale (A24), the latest film by Darren Aronofsky since his silly Mother! embarrassed us all. This film concerns a morbidly obese man (or just a regular dude if you’re in Texas) stuck in his flat who tries to reconnect with his estranged daughter before it’s too late. There’s a lot going for this film, not just because of the director’s reputation but also because of the lead actor, Brendan Fraser, hitting the trades with his comeback-of-the-year angle. Fraser is currently favourite to take home the Best Actor Oscar. As for the film’s potential, it does remind me of Aronofsky’s earlier film The Wrestler, another film about an estranged father, played by an actor we all forgot about.
With A24 pushing this for awards season, expect it to perform well on the PTA front in Ultimate, as it opens this weekend in a handful of theatres, and earn upwards of $15m across the coming months. Though note that its platform release may not make it worth it for Box Office.
And if you’re wondering why I’ve nothing to say about my favourite film of the year, Father Stu 1.5, or the wide-ish expansion of romantic tragedy Spoiler Alert, well that’s because they’re probably going to have zero impact on the game.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- $10m
2. Violent Night - $6m
3. Strange World - $2.6m
4. The Menu- $2m
5. Devotion - $1.5m
PTA: The Whale, Black Panther, Empire of Light, Violent Night, All the Beauty
Next week sees the sequel we’ve been waiting for, and most of us have died of old age in doing so, Avatar 2: Electric Bluegaloo, as well as Tom Hanks dramedy remake A Man Called Otto and The Almond and the Seahorse. Screen’s going to tell us all about it.
Empire of Light (Searchlight) feels like an old film. One of those kind of films our progeny will end up watching on TV on a Sunday afternoon. If TVs still exist. Or Sundays. It’s a film set in a cinema, as a relationship between an older white duty manager (Olivia Coleman) and a younger black employee (Michael Ward) blossoms during 1980s England. This is Sam Mendes’s reward after the huge hit that was 1917, but this won’t come close to that wartime rollercoaster. Reviews have called it a very gentle film, but most notably they haven’t been positive (42% RT score, for example), which is a gutpunch for a film like this. It still may win over the older audience, but it seems unlikely to break out.
Opening in about 100 theatres this weekend before expanding, it’s in the zone of death, meaning it’s unlikely to earn enough to put it in the Top 5, nor enough to make more than a handful of PTA points. That means this prestige pic is about as useful for you in Ultimate ($5) or Box Office ($4) as stocks in Blockbuster.
With more potential is The Whale (A24), the latest film by Darren Aronofsky since his silly Mother! embarrassed us all. This film concerns a morbidly obese man (or just a regular dude if you’re in Texas) stuck in his flat who tries to reconnect with his estranged daughter before it’s too late. There’s a lot going for this film, not just because of the director’s reputation but also because of the lead actor, Brendan Fraser, hitting the trades with his comeback-of-the-year angle. Fraser is currently favourite to take home the Best Actor Oscar. As for the film’s potential, it does remind me of Aronofsky’s earlier film The Wrestler, another film about an estranged father, played by an actor we all forgot about.
With A24 pushing this for awards season, expect it to perform well on the PTA front in Ultimate, as it opens this weekend in a handful of theatres, and earn upwards of $15m across the coming months. Though note that its platform release may not make it worth it for Box Office.
And if you’re wondering why I’ve nothing to say about my favourite film of the year, Father Stu 1.5, or the wide-ish expansion of romantic tragedy Spoiler Alert, well that’s because they’re probably going to have zero impact on the game.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever- $10m
2. Violent Night - $6m
3. Strange World - $2.6m
4. The Menu- $2m
5. Devotion - $1.5m
PTA: The Whale, Black Panther, Empire of Light, Violent Night, All the Beauty
Next week sees the sequel we’ve been waiting for, and most of us have died of old age in doing so, Avatar 2: Electric Bluegaloo, as well as Tom Hanks dramedy remake A Man Called Otto and The Almond and the Seahorse. Screen’s going to tell us all about it.