Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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The legacy of Chadwick Boseman and the Black Panther lived on in a big way at the box office this past weekend.

Wakanda Forever's $181.3 mil debut marked the second best OW of 2022 and the higher ever opening for a November release as fans eagerly flocked to see how this franchise would continue without the late Boseman leading the charge. The even better news for Disney is that the film has significantly better WOM than both of the Marvel releases from earlier this year, which means that it should be much less frontloaded than those films were. If the holds are good enough, Wakanda Forever should clear $400 mil with ease and maybe even challenge for $500 mil by the time the Mousehouse's focus shifts over to the blue residents of Pandora in 5 weeks time.

The specialty market saw a somewhat smaller wave of triumph hits its shores with the The Fabelmans' successful start. The current best picture front runner cashed in all of its award buzz and went onto post the third best PTA debut for a limited release all year by grossing $40,394 per theater. With no plans to expand from NY/LA this week before its wide break on Wednesday, another magical weekend for The Fabelmans should be on the docket.

Elsewhere, it was a pretty nondescript weekend. Black Adam ($8.1 mil) held a bit better than expected in the wake of the bigger, better superhero movie hitting theaters. Ticket to Paradise ($5.9 mil) and The Banshees of Inisherin ($1.6 mil) held pretty steady with the older adult crowd. Smile ($2.3 mil) and Lyle, Lyle Crocodile ($3.2 mil) continued to hang around as their runs inch closer to the two month mark. And lastly, One Piece Film: Red cratered bad even by anime movie standards with a staggering 84% drop. Fear not gang because this lack of action is short-lived as a massive Thanksgiving slate that sees a slew of wide and limited releases enter the fray over a 5-day period kicks off in roughly 24 hours time.

Wide Releases:
After a full 3 week reprieve, audiences will be treated to another new theatrical horror movie in The Menu (Searchlight). Mark Mylod's return to features after an impressive 11 year run of TV directing that included becoming the primary director on Succession and a 6-episode run on Game of Thrones is a darkly comedic thriller/satire centered around a group of wealthy foodies (Nicolas Hoult, Anya Taylor-Joy, John Leguizamo, about a half-dozen other character actors) that head off to a remote island for an evening at a restaurant run by a celebrity Michelin Star chef (Ralph Fiennes), only to quickly find out that something more than a 5-course meal of fine cuisine is on the menu.

Whether it was the strong reception on the festival circuit which included receiving the Audience Award at genre festival Fantastic Fest or the WOM success they just enjoyed with Barbarian, Disney seems to be very confident in The Menu. Its receiving the widest ever release for a Searchlight title ( 3,100 theaters) and has gotten a pretty solid marketing push including some TV spots during NFL/NBA games, a bunch of social media/YouTube/Hulu spots and frequent theatrical trailer placement dating all the way back to late May. Given all these factors, there's a really solid chance for this to easily exceed its current tracking number of $8 mil and perhaps even match or exceed the $10.5 mil start Barbarian had back in September. The real question is whether it will be to stick around as a counterprogramming option at least until Avatar begins to eat up screens a month from now and if the broader WOM proves to be good as the critical reviews and early word from the genre fan crowd, it should be able to do just that.

Price: $4 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions: $7-13 mil OW/0-3 PTA/2-6 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDB/$20-45 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Since it's the rare cheap pick that is going to pick up some top 5 and PTA points, it's definitely worth considering. However, it needs to be noted that it might end up getting lost in the shuffle come Wednesday when 4 new releases (and that's not including the 1-week release of Glass Onion that isn't in our game) enter the wide release pipeline.


It was only a matter of time before Hollywood made a film about the long overdue exposing of Harvey Weinstein's predatory behavior and that film entitled She Said (Universal) is arriving this week. She Said tells the story of how New York Times reporters Jodi Kantor (Zoe Kazan) and Megan Twohey (Carey Mulligan) got multiple women to speak on the record about their harrowing experiences with Weinstein and the story they wrote after completing their lengthy investigation eventually led to Weinstein being put on trial and getting convicted for multiple counts of sexual assault and launched the #Metoo movement that inspired other women to come forward with their own stories of workplace misconduct and harassment.

Going into this weekend, She Said is in a really tough spot. While the reviews have been generally positive on the whole, they're not strong enough to cut through a very busy limited marketplace (especially in NYC/LA) and Mulligan's performance is the only element of the film that has any notable Oscar buzz surrounding it.

The harsh reality is that She Said could be the best reviewed movie of the year and it still wouldn't make any fucking money. Journalism, the inner workings of the movie industry and sexual assault/harassment/abuse of power by an employer is the quite the trifecta of shit that the average person doesn't any care about-especially when they're being delivered in a straightforward docudrama. Hell, The Last Duel had some huge medieval battles and a brutal fight to the death in its final act and that shit could barely clear $10 mil domestic since said fight to the death was sanctioned over an alleged rape. Some New York Times readers/movie buffs/avid awards viewers will probably go check it out, but it'll get quickly banished from theaters and will likely only be mentioned again in some conversations about Oscar snubs when it inevitably receives somewhere between 0 and 3 nominations.
Price: $7 ULT/$6 BO
Predictions: $3-7 mil OW/0-1 PTA/0-2 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB/$7-20 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No.


Limited Releases:
For his first film shot and set in the United States, Luca Guadagnino didn't play it safe. In fact, the Italian filmmaker may be taking one of the most ambitious swings of his career with the genre-bending Bones and All (MGM). This adaptation of an Alex Award-winning novel by American author Camille DeAngelis tells the story of a young woman (Taylor Russell) who is forced to go on the run after biting another girl's finger off. During her travels, she meets another cannibal drifter (Timothee Chalamet) and the two quickly fall in love. As they travel the country together, they begin to have encounters with more people (Mark Rylance, Michael Stuhlbarg) that shares their proclivities-which causes them to question the morality of their flesh-eating ways.

Having Bones and All start as a limited release was a savvy move by MGM. Guadagnino's movies have done huge numbers in NYC/LA in the past and there's no reason to believe that this will be any different. The issue is that they're expanding it wide only 5 days later. Sure, Chalamet is an ascending star with a passionate fanbase and the cannibalism angle is going to bring some people in (especially since the theatrical trailer/TV and internet spots make it look like a straight-up horror flick), but the WOM is likely going to be really bad once the masses discover it's a slow, romantic arthouse movie that just happens to feature some moments of graphic violence. Platforming it for even an additional week to give it some more good buzz from the specialty crowd and providing with some space away from The Fabelmans/The Menu/Devotion/Glass Onion feels like it would've been a smarter move, but alas that isn't the case. Expected some fireworks this weekend and maybe next Tuesday/Wednesday before it gets eaten alive.
Price: $6 ULT/$6 BO
Predictions: $90-140k OW/3-5 PTA/0 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDB/$5-15 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Since it's going wide next Wednesday, it's probably not worth a look.


While The Whale is prime to be the focal point of A24's fall slate, they have another fall festival player that just might get a little awards season love as well in The Inspection (A24). The semi-autobiographical narrative debut from veteran documentarian Elegance Bratton has earned a lot of praise for its unique story about a closeted gay man (Jeremy Pope) whose been shunned by his mother (Gabrielle Union) who decides to join the Marines during the days of “Don't Ask, Don't Tell” and the performances of Pope and Union have widely been pegged as dark horse contenders for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress nominations. Pair this buzz with the inevitable A24 brand boost and high awareness among indie audiences (the trailer has been a fixture on such releases since late August) and you have a movie that should do pretty good business before it expands at least semi-wide on December 2nd.
Price: $4 ULT/$2 BO
Predictions: $65-125k OW/2-7 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDb/$1.5-5 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It should do fine, but there are plenty of other similarly priced titles that have already been released (TAR, Banshees of Inisherin, Triangle of Sadness) and are still awaiting release (The Whale, Women Talking) that appear primed to be better values.


Bad Axe (IFC) comes with a distinction that is very common with IFC films: a well-reviewed film that is going to get killed by its release strategy. This documentary about a family of Cambodian immigrants who live and operate a restaurant in the rural town of Bad Axe, Michigan that see their life severely impacted by the business closures and spike in Anti-Asian racism at the start of COVID. In the hands of a distributor like Neon, this could've had a nice little run, but since it's been relegated to a day-and-date release, it'll be a complete non-starter with audiences and in our game.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $10-25k OW/0 PTA or Top 5/high 7 to low 8 IMDb/$20-$45k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Predictions:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $80 mil
2.The Menu $10 mil
3.Black Adam $5 mil
4.Ticket to Paradise $4.5 mil
5.She Said $4 mil

PTA: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Bones and All, The Fabelmans, The Inspection, The Menu

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down a busy Thanksgiving frame that includes Disney's annual late November animated release, a Korean war-set biopic about the US Navy's first black aviator, Florian Zeller's follow-up to his Oscar-winning debut feature and the wide expansions of two of the films mentioned above.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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She Said is basically getting dumped. Universal has done almost no marketing and what marketing there is either makes it look like Spotlight or directly copies Spotlight's ad campaign. The handling of this proves that Universal will talk about taking on projects other studios won't make but fails to push them, making them no different than any other studio. Also not helping is that the industry learned nothing from #MeToo, as a lot of the people outed five years ago are working again while their victims are forced to suffer in silence.

And The Last Duel failed because few wanted to watch a big-budget, R-rated religious film about French duelists. That and the industry do not understand that Adam Driver is not a movie star. Studio executives love him because he was Kylo Ren but he's among the blandest actors working today. It will never happen.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Univers
Buscemi2 wrote:
November 16th, 2022, 7:16 pm
She Said is basically getting dumped. Universal has done almost no marketing and what marketing there is either makes it look like Spotlight or directly copies Spotlight's ad campaign. The handling of this proves that Universal will talk about taking on projects other studios won't make but fails to push them, making them no different than any other studio. Also not helping is that the industry learned nothing from #MeToo, as a lot of the people outed five years ago are working again while their victims are forced to suffer in silence.

And The Last Duel failed because few wanted to watch a big-budget, R-rated religious film about French duelists. That and the industry do not understand that Adam Driver is not a movie star. Studio executives love him because he was Kylo Ren but he's among the blandest actors working today. It will never happen.
Universal has aggressively pushed the bulk of their slate this year (including stuff like Marry Me, Ambulance and Downton Abbey that ended up underwhelming) so coming after the prevalence of their marketing on the whole isn't fair or accurate.

In the case of She Said, they could be pushing it hard through channels that neither of us follow (female-aimed TV shows, websites, YouTube chanells, etc) and even if they put together a campaign that rivaled the inescapable visibility of Nope or Minions, it wouldn't matter for the lack of mainstream viability I discussed above. Awards were likely the main reason they made the movie anyways, which is obviously pretty gross and lacking in self-awareness considering Hollywood's extensive history of people in power abusing women.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Marry Me and Ambulance are typical studio fare while Downton Abbey was a sequel. I'm talking about films like Tar, Bros, The Silent Twins, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Finch, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, and Queen & Slim. Most of these are films most studios aren't releasing and Universal or Focus gets them in hopes of selling themselves as the progressive studio. And then they proceed to either dump them, promote them incorrectly (in the case of Bros, which was sold as an angry R-rated sitcom with none of the warmth the final product had), or in the case of Finch, get sold off. Also, they have Jason Blum making films for them and he does the same thing, trying to sell himself as being open to different ideas by working with Jordan Peele but produces five Purge movies and a TV series and forced massive re-edits to Black Christmas so not to piss off the men's rights crowd.

Universal will only sell your film if it's a sequel, has the possibility of a sequel, or appeals to white men of a certain age. Otherwise, you might as well forgo any hope of a wide theatrical release as streaming will be the only way to go.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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The Chosen: Season 3 Begins was tracking at nearly $8 million last I saw. It has a decent shot at finishing in second this weekend unless it's frontloaded like Christmas with the Chosen was.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Completely spaced out The Chosen when I was considering what could be in the top 5. Wouldn't be shocked if it challenged The Menu for the #2 spot.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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It's a reasonably popular show among the super-religious, managing to get audiences with all Christian denominations. It also helps that as the show was crowdfunded, the studio wasn't required to exclusively put it on a single network or streaming service. So you can find it on a bunch of streaming services (Prime, Tubi, Pure Flix, even a service that's dedicated to the show) and on a number of religious channels.

I'm no fan of projects like this and their main intent but I do respect the show's creator for getting it out there and building an audience without making it about how much money he can make by making it exclusive to one service.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Cinemascores:

The Menu: B
She Said: A
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Friday numbers

1. Black Panther $17.9 million
2. The Menu $3.6 million
3. The Chosen: Season 3 Begins $3.5 million (Box Office Mojo split up the two episodes as separate listings but it's the same title)
4. Black Adam $1.1 million
5. Ticket to Paradise $1 million
6. She Said $0.8 million
7. Smile $0.3 million
8. The Banshees of Inisherin $0.2 million
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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I found out why She Said had such a muted ad campaign. Universal decided to focus almost entirely on its Oscar campaign for the film, perhaps hoping to pull what Disney did with The Eyes of Tammy Faye, winning two Oscars with a film only Tammy Faye Bakker apologists saw and critics didn't really care for.

She Said has better reviews but seeing how Universal also has The Fabelmans, will voters even care? Carey Mulligan probably gets an apology Best Actress nomination but that's probably going to be it.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on November 20th, 2022, 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Mulligan is up for Best Supporting Actress. Universal chose to enter Zoe Kazan in the Best Actress race instead. I don't love her chances regardless

Weekend Estimates:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $67.3 mil
The Menu $9 mil
The Chosen Season 3 $8.2 mil
Black Adam $4.5 mil
Ticket to Paradise $3.2 mil
She Said $2.3 mil
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $1.9 mil
Smile $1.1 mil
Prey for the Devil $935k
The Banshees of Inisherin $703k

PTA:
Bones and All $23,983
The Fabelmans $23,500
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $15,309
The Inspection $13,188
The Menu $2,803
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Yeah, Kazan's not getting nominated. Rooney Mara has the whole "well connected American actor who underplays everything" quota filled for that category.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Best Actress is extremely competitive this year, so I'm not confident Mara will get nominated either. Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy's performances have way more buzz behind them at the moment (Buckley being pegged as the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress at the moment) and if we're operating under the assumption that Blanchett, Williams and Yeoh are locks, she might have a hard time edging out Deadwyler, Robbie and Davis-who've all been widely cited as the standouts of their respective films-for 1 of the final 2 spots.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Yeoh won't get nominated. Everything Everywhere All at Once came too early in the year and it's not the type of film the Academy raves about. At best, it probably get nominations in the post-production categories (Visual Effects, Sound). The Yeoh hype feels like it was conducted by the same people who think Top Gun: Maverick and RRR are Best Picture worthy as those were likely the only non-comic book movies they saw this year.

Babylon's weak early word likely takes Robbie out, even with the Academy's love for caricature. And as good as Deadwyler's performance was, Till likely fails to get a single nomination as MGM botched the theatrical run by not opening wide right away.

A sleeper pick would be Tang Wei's performance in Decision to Leave but the Academy rarely nominates non-English language performances.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/18

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Buscemi2 wrote:
November 20th, 2022, 1:22 pm
Yeoh won't get nominated. Everything Everywhere All at Once came too early in the year and it's not the type of film the Academy raves about. At best, it probably get nominations in the post-production categories (Visual Effects, Sound). The Yeoh hype feels like it was conducted by the same people who think Top Gun: Maverick and RRR are Best Picture worthy as those were likely the only non-comic book movies they saw this year.

Babylon's weak early word likely takes Robbie out, even with the Academy's love for caricature. And as good as Deadwyler's performance was, Till likely fails to get a single nomination as MGM botched the theatrical run by not opening wide right away.

A sleeper pick would be Tang Wei's performance in Decision to Leave but the Academy rarely nominates non-English language performances.
Have a very strong feeling that you're going to be in for some big surprises on the morning of January 24th...
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