Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by transformers2 »

While it was an uncharacteristically quiet first weekend of November at the box office with only a lone wide release entering the fray (anime film One Piece Film: Red-which debuted at #2 with a so-so $9.4 mil), there were still some positive results among the relative lack of action.

Naturally, the good news started at the very top of the box office where Black Adam earned its third straight first place finish with a stronger than expected $18.3 mil gross (-33.5%). The Dwayne Johnson-led DCU vehicle has earned a solid $137 mil so far, but its about to be killed where it stands by the Wakanda Forever boogeyman that'll be entering the marketplace in less than 48 hours time-so it'll probably completely run out of gas before it hits $175 mil. While the Marvel roadblock marks a premature beginning of the end of its box office viability, Black Adam managed to slightly exceed its BO forecasts and provided David Zaslav with about the only good piece of news he's received in the past few months that didn't involve a flash sale on embroidered vests, so it should be chalked up as a victory for all parties involved.

Right behind Black Adam at the top of the holdover market is fellow October 21 release Ticket to Paradise, which enjoyed a significantly better hold in weekend #3 (-13%) than it did in weekend #2 (-40%) as the George Clooney/Julia Roberts romcom finished in third with an impressive $8.5 mil. Older audiences are loving this vintage star vehicle and it'll be interesting to see if it continue to maintain legs through Thanksgiving and into the early parts of December before the semi-crowded holiday slate hits.

Finally, there was the official confirmation that Smile was going to indeed clear $100 mil domestically after it banked another $4 mil in its first non-October weekend-which brought its running total to just over $99 mil. Parker Finn's directorial debut has been a WOM sensation-displaying incredible holds throughout its run which started back on September 30 and now has the distinction of being the highest-grossing pure horror movie of the year. Given the erratic nature of the box office these days, it's awesome to see a non-IP project that was produced for under $20 million become a breakout hit as a result of audience staying power at a time where that's becoming a harder and harder feat to pull off.

Finding silver linings on the limited front is a bit harder to do as the wide expansion of Armageddon Time fell pretty flat as the film only grossed $793,000 in just over 1,000 theaters and projected major Oscar player The Banshees of Inisherin managed a decent albeit unremarkable $2.1 mil from its own nationwide break in 895 theaters.

These bigger specialty titles ended up being overshadowed once again by the Danish-Iranian thriller Holy Spider-which earned $4,819 per run in its expansion from 1 to 4 theaters. While the bleak, controversial film hasn't posted gaudy numbers in either weekend of its run, Utopia's very slow rollout plan (it's expanding into San Francisco, Philadelphia and Austin this weekend) should allow it to earn at least a couple more PTA points before the specialty market cranks up its release volume again starting next week.


Wide Release:
An unexpected real life tragedy had a ripple effect on the MCU when Chadwick Boseman passed away in August 2020 after a long, private bout with colon cancer. Following a completely overhaul of the script that he had completed and discussed with Boseman shortly before his death, writer/director Ryan Coogler appears to have used Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney/Marvel) as a way to mourn the loss of Boseman and honor his legacy while also advancing the superhero worldbuilding as Marvel's “Multiverse Saga” prepares to transition to its next phase. Early word from critics is that he pulled off the delicate balancing act with praise being aimed how it handles its themes of loss and grief as well as the performances of Angela Bassett, Letita Wright and Tenoch Huerta-who portrays the film's villain Namor.

Wakanda Forever is arriving at the perfect time as the box office numbers have slowed down pretty significantly after a terrific run from May-early August and its OW alone will likely outgross anything that's opened since MCU counterpart Thor: Love and Thunder bowed on July 8 (that sure is a mildly depressing sentence to write!!). The hundred million dollar question is just how high can it go? Black Panther remains the highest grossing non-Avengers/3 generations of Spider-Man movie in the MCU and as we saw with Furious 7, fans will be eager to pay tribute to Boseman and the character that defined his far too brief acting career. Friday being a national holiday here in the States should also provide a boost to the matinees that typically wouldn't be there in November.

Really the only going against is the potential that Marvel fatigue is setting in after both Multiverse of Madness and Love and Thunder received divisive reactions from fans, but that possibility doesn't seem overly likely to effect this particular project since there's not a perception that it will be full of broader MCU implications-which contributed to the aforementioned polarized reactions of the previous two Marvel projects.

Ultimately, it should be able to challenge Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness for the title of the of 2022's top opening (MoM made $187.4 mil), but it would be mildly surprising if it matched or exceeded the $202 mil OW of its predecessor.

Price: $50 ULT/$53 BO
Predictions: $160-200 mil OW/8-13 PTA/19-35 Top 5/mid to high 7 IMDB/$400-600 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: I believe every single one of us took it in both formats, so there's your answer.


Limited Releases:
Is anybody out there coming down with a case of AWARDS SEASONS FEVER?!?!?!? Well if the recent nationwide expansions of TAR, The Banshees of Inisherin and Till weren't enough to infect you with it, perhaps the imminent release of the current projected Best Picture favorite The Fabelmans (Universal) will do the trick. Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical coming-of-age tale which follows a young Arizona boy from ages 7-17 (Mateo Zoryon Francis-DeFord, Gabriel Labelle) as he falls in love with movies while his parents (Michelle Williams, Paul Dano) grow apart and ultimately get divorced enchanted audiences at its world premiere in Toronto-where it went onto win the festival's prestigious People's Choice Award. Considering what Spielberg means to the film community and how substantial the buzz is in these circles, The Fabelmans is poised to be huge on the specialty circuit. I fully expect it to snatch the 2022 PTA crown from Everything Everywhere All at Once ($50,130) and play to packed houses in New York and LA pretty consistently over the next 2 weeks.

Its wide break at Thanksgiving is another story entirely. While Universal is making the right call by opening it limited, I'm having a hard time seeing how this is going to generate any real mainstream momentum. People that love Spielberg and/or the cinematic artform will check it out, but is a coming-of-age story about Spielberg himself the type of thing that's going to bring broader audiences that are becoming increasingly indifferent towards the Oscars to the theater? As much as I'd love to see something like this play well into the early months of 2023, it just feel like something that will only play to the cinephile bubble-regardless of how good the WOM is.

Price: $9 ULT/$8 BO
Predictions: $250-500k OW/7-11 PTA/1-4 Top 5/high 7 to low 8 IMDB/$10-40 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: BO is a definite no, but if it can hold off The Inspection and Bones and All for the limited PTA crown next week and pick up a few top 5 points once it expands, it could be a pretty good ULT pick.


Much like Ticket to Paradise, Bar Fight! (IFC) feels like something that could've been released sometime from 1996-2008. The plot involves a recently separated couple (Melissa Fumero from Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Luka Jones-whose most prominent credit appears to be a recurring role on the Aidy Bryant-led Hulu series Shrill) that engages in a lengthy competition for the right to keep going to the bar they both love. As appealingly kooky as those hijinks sound, Bar Fight has the misfortune of following IFC's release pattern for Spin Me Round (simultaneous release in theaters, on VOD and streaming on AMC+), so it wouldn't add anything other than some hearty guffaws to your slate.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $5-15k OW/0 PTA or Top/low to mid 5 IMDb/$10-$30k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No


Weekend Predictions:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $175 mil
2.Ticket to Paradise $6 mil
3.Black Adam $5 mil
4.Smile $2.5 mil
5.One Piece Film: Red $2 mil

PTA: The Fabelmans, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Holy Spider, Aftersun, The Banshees of Inisherin

Tune in next week when I return to break down the prospects of the Harvey Weinstein edition of “Spotlight”, A24's latest drama that features a couple of performances that are believed to be dark horse contenders in the acting categories come awards season, what is likely to be the most romantic movie about cannibals to hit theaters this year and an eat the rich satire where the rich actually get to eat!
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by transformers2 »

Wakanda Forever did $28 mil in previews, which is $1 mil behind Love and Thunder and $8 mil behind Multiverse of Madness. As I mentioned above, this won't matter much since today is Veteran's Day and a lot of people opted to just go see it today instead.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

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Black Panther is looking at $175-180 million, well below the first's $202 million opening. Of course, this one has a different lead and didn't have the build-up that one had. However, it should hold well next week, with the only competition being The Hunt 2 and Spotlight 2.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Wakanda Forever: A (below Black Panther's A+ but few movies ever achieve the top score)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $180 mil
Black Adam $8.6 mil
Ticket to Paradise $6.1 mil
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $3.2 mil
Smile $2.3 mil
Prey for the Devil $2 mil
The Banshees of Inisherin $1.7 mil
One Piece Film: Red $1.4 mil
Till $618k
Armageddon Time $352k

PTA:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $40,946
The Fabelmans $40,250
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

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One Piece Film: Red's 84.5% second weekend drop is now the year's biggest, passing RRR's 83% second weekend drop. Interestingly, RRR had another solid weekend in limited release, making over $10,000 in a single theatre.

And seeing how well Lyle Lyle Crocodile has held the last two weekends, it makes you wonder if Sony make the mistake of opening in October instead of November. Though I still believe the weak marketing campaign was the culprit, as this should have had trailers out with the onslaught of kid-friendly titles in June and July instead of waiting until August to begin the promotion.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

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Weekend Actuals:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $181.3 mil
2.Black Adam $8.1 mil
3.Ticket to Paradise $5.9 mil
4.Lyle. Lyle Crocodile $3.2 mil
5.Smile $2.3 mil
6.Prey for the Devil $1.9 mil
7.The Banshees of Inisherin $1.7 mil
8.One Piece Film: Red $1.4 mil
9.Till $608k
10.TAR $383k

16.The Fabelmans $162k

PTA:
1.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $41,251
2.The Fabelmans $40,394 (4 theaters)
3.Holy Spider $2,455 (8 theaters)
4.Black Adam $2,234
5.The Banshees of Inisherin $1,718

-Bar Fight! $147 (15 theaters)
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by JohnErle »

transformers2 wrote:
November 14th, 2022, 7:53 pm
Weekend Actuals:

-Bar Fight! $147 (15 theaters)
I still live in hope that someday I'll write a movie that can earn some savvy investor $147.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 11/11

Post by Buscemi2 »

There have been a few films made for less than $147 that got some notice. It can be done.
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