SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

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numbersix
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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by numbersix »

While Halloween is traditionally a quiet weekend in the box office (with people too busy contracting diabetes, being very original by dressing up as a slutty nun, or just getting into the spirit of things and committing murder), there was some impressive performances this year. Opener Prey for the Devil performed as poorly as expected, but it was the hold of Smile (down 36% in its 5th weekend) that continues to impress. Black Adam dropped 59%, which isn’t bad for a blockbuster, and rom-com Ticket to Paradise held well, and currently has made nearly $120m worldwide. On the limited side Armageddon Time had the highest PTA count (although its wide release is looking apocalyptic), and The Banshees of Inisherin (one of my highlights of the year so far) holding well in its 2nd weekend. This weekend is another quiet one, as we all prepare for the arrival of the king: Kevin Feige.





Often we let anime films slip through the Fantaverse net, but not this week, with One Piece: Red (Crunchyroll) coming out. I’m far too old to understand any of this, but the One Piece franchise is now in its 15th (!) film in the Japanese franchise. Dealing with a pirate made of rubber (I’m breaking the exclamation key on my keyboard at this stage), this one concerns a famous singer who reveals to be connected to the beloved pirate crew. I’ve no idea what any of this means. But I do know this is one of Japan’s biggest domestic hits of all time, and the biggest of the series. When the previous films came out in the US, it was through smaller distributors, but this time around it’s Crunchyroll, who recently were acquired by Sony. And most significantly, they released the most recent Dragon Ball and Jujutsu Kaisen O (the what now???) movies, which earned $31m and $35 respectively. With the distributors past success, and the lack of competition, expect a modestly impressive opening in the high seven figures, and a cume in the low $20m range. That’s not worth spending $8 for BO, and in Ultimate you’ll get 4 T5 points, 1 PTA point, and low 7s IMDB score. Not great, but perhaps worth it if you’ve a $7 gap in your slate.





On the limited side, the best prospect is Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (Sony Classics), a documentary about the Italian shoemaker who designed footwear for Hollywood royalty. This may not seem like a film that will put boots on the floor, but it’s directed by Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name, Suspiria, etc), and it opened in Venice this year. Reviews weren’t plentiful nor hugely excited, but it should still get a few PTA points this weekend, but not beyond. Not great for $3 in Ultimate, nor $1 in BO.




Finally, Moorhead and Benson are back for their latest joint, Something in the Dirt. It’s one of the first releases by XYZ Films, a reputable genre sales agent. And it’s run by James Shapiro, a good friend of mine. However, despite the film’s positive reviews, it doesn’t have the same buzz as some of their previous idiosyncratic sci-fi/horrors. And given theatrical isn’t XYZ’s main source of income, don’t expect this to impress, despite the 10 or so theatres it’s coming out in.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Black Adam- $15m
2. Ticket to Paradise - $7m
3. One Piece: Red - $7m
4. Prey for the Devil- $3m
5. Till- $3m

PTA: Banshees, Salvatore, Black Adam, Something in the Dirt, Holy Spider

Next week sees a titan of cinema make a return: Jim Mahoney, with the Titanic-rivalling Bar Fight! Oh, and our resident Transformer will take a look at The Son, and the obscure Wakanda Forever.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Buscemi2 »

Something in the Dirt is playing near me and it's splitting a screen with another movie. Either it doesn't report or numbers will be terrible.

As for wide releases, I think One Piece Film: Red hits at least $10 million. The anime's reasonably popular and if Dragon Ball Super can open to $20 million, I think One Piece can get at least half. Also, it's got IMAX screens this weekend so you've got those premium surcharges.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Buscemi2 »

One Piece will open in at least 2,400 theatres, nearly a fourth of those showing it on multiple screens. Both subtitled and dubbed versions will be shown.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

One Piece Film: Red: A
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Black Adam $18.5 mil
One Piece Film Red $9.5 mil
Ticket to Paradise $8.5 mil
Smile $4 mil
Prey for the Devil $3.9 mil
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $3.4 mil
The Banshees of Inisherin $2 mil
Till $1.9 mil
Halloween Ends $1.4 mil
Terrifier 2 $1.2 mil
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Black Adam $18.3 mil
2.One Piece Film: Red $9.3 mil
3.Ticket to Paradise $8.5 mil (-13%)
4.Smile $4 mil (will officially hit $100 mil sometime in the next 2-3 days)
5.Prey for the Devil $3.9 mil
6.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $3.4 mil
7.The Banshees of Inisherin $2.1 mil
8.Till $1.9 mil
9.Halloween Ends $1.4 mil
10.Terrifier 2 $1.1 mil

-Armageddon Time $793k (1,006 theaters)

PTA:
1.Holy Spider $4,819 (4 theaters)
2.Black Adam $4,585
3.One Piece Film: Red $3,939
4.Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams $3,046 (3 theaters)
5.Aftersun $2,812 (45 theaters)

Something in the Dirt didn't report
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Screen203 »

transformers2 wrote:
November 7th, 2022, 6:38 pm
Weekend Actuals:
1.Black Adam $18.3 mil
2.One Piece Film: Red $9.3 mil
3.Ticket to Paradise $8.5 mil (-13%)
4.Smile $4 mil (will officially hit $100 mil sometime in the next 2-3 days)
5.Prey for the Devil $3.9 mil
6.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $3.4 mil
7.The Banshees of Inisherin $2.1 mil
8.Till $1.9 mil
9.Halloween Ends $1.4 mil
10.Terrifier 2 $1.1 mil

-Armageddon Time $793k (1,006 theaters)

PTA:
1.Holy Spider $4,819 (4 theaters)
2.Black Adam $4,585
3.One Piece Film: Red $3,939
4.Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams $3,046 (3 theaters)
5.Aftersun $2,812 (45 theaters)

Something in the Dirt didn't report
Ticket To Paradise is having a really impressive run so far. If it can hold theaters against Wakanda Forever and the huge lot of Thanksgiving releases, it could get to as high as 80 m, which is huge for a romantic comedy in 2022.

Also, Holy Spider is doing really well in the PTA part of the game. I don't believe anyone took it in Ultimate, but it could get close to 20 points at this rate, which would be more than pretty much every high-profile limited release of October.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Buscemi2 »

Ticket to Paradise added a bunch of theatres this weekend, which minimized the drop. Also, that and The Banshees of Inisherin (which got a positive response at the showing I attended on Saturday) are the only major comedies out right now. Most other comedies are either exclusive to streaming or only getting a few theatres for a week before hitting post-theatrical markets.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by transformers2 »

Despite their increasing rarity as theatrical releases, recent history has shown that people won't just flock to any comedy that comes out. Just look at the past 3 months which saw Bros, Easter Sunday and See How They Run all finish south of $15 mil at the box office and Easter Sunday was the only one from that bunch that got dinged with bad reviews.

Ticket to Paradise's biggest advantage is that happens to be something that Hollywood hasn't produced in quite some time: A 90's/00's-esque PG-13 romantic comedy aimed at an older audience led by 2 undisputed A-listers. And as its BO performance has shown, a good number of people have jumped at the chance to see a former Hollywood mainstay being resurrected on the big screen.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 11/04

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bros and Easter Sunday had terrible marketing while See How They Run should have been platformed. Blame the studios for those failures, not the audiences.
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