The fall season box office seems to finally be gaining some momentum. Black Adam debuted in first with a solid (and very backloaded) 67 m opening. In second, fellow opener Ticket To Paradise, already a major success overseas, opened decently here as well with 16 m. With it being the most high-profile comedy until Christmas, it should hold well throughout the next few months. In third was not Halloween Ends, but Smile with 8 m, dropping only 33 percent. In fourth, we finally see Halloween Ends, dropping an atrocious 80 percent to gross just 8 m. In fifth, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile dropped 42 percent to gross 4 m. In limited release, The Banshees Of Inisherin grossed about 46 k per theater in four theaters, the second highest PTA of the year only behind Everything Everywhere All At Once (which was released in more than double the amount of theaters), but it is still an impressive gross. Also opening in four theaters, Aftersun grossed almost 17 k per theater, which is an okay start, though not a huge one.
This Week
Prey For The Devil
I can't believe this is actually coming out this weekend, considering it has seemingly been delayed about 5000 times.
The movie itself looks like the most generic exorcism film ever made, despite having somewhat of an original premise. Reviews will likely be scarier than the movie itself, and there has been very little in the way of advertising. In addition, while the Halloween release date could have helped it in a less crowded marketplace (similar to Countdown in 2019), there is a lot of competition for horror audiences, all of which have better reviews than this is likely to get. In conclusion, John Wick: Chapter 4 can't come soon enough for the struggling Lionsgate.
It may be able to do 5 m or so due to Halloween, but its total won't get far past 10 m.
It will get you a 4 on IMDb, 2 Top 5 points, and 0 PTA points.
Don't take it in either Box Office or Ultimate.
Call Jane
This extremely timely film got decent reviews out of Sundance. I don't think that that will translate into a huge box office gross, though. I feel as though the marketing campaign is pretty much non-existent, and buzz around it feels about the same. It will probably do better outside of theaters, if anything.
I expect about a 1 m opening, and a 3 m total.
It will probably get a rather low score (by people who will not watch it) on IMDb due to the subject matter alone, but the people who actually see it will probably balance that out to about a 5. It will get 0 PTA (I don't think a wide release without platforming first was a great idea) or Top 5 points.
Don't take it in Box Office or Ultimate.
Armageddon Time
I feel like this may do better than expected, despite the lack of buzz. It has a very strong cast, is directed by James Gray, and had good reviews out of Cannes. Where I do think it may go wrong is in expansion. There does not seem to be any hype (or marketing) around the film at all, which will harm it when it expands wide next week.
I think it gets around 20 k per theater in its limited opening, but I don't think it reaches 5 m in total, unless it becomes a sleeper awards contender.
It will get you a 7 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 5 PTA points.
It's not the worst choice in Ultimate, but there are much better choices (a lot of which have already released). Don't take it in Box Office.
Holy Spider
There was a lot of buzz for this also timely thriller out of Cannes, with some believing it should have received the Palme D'Or. I think it should have a strong limited opening, at the very least. A setback could be that the distributor Utopia is relatively new, and have not had a film even break 1 m yet, but Mubi has had success (so far) with Decision To Leave despite not having a strong history of releasing theatrical hits in the US. Still, there is enough buzz around it that is should do okay business.
I think it grosses about 15 k per theater in its opening, but it probably won't do much more than 1 m in total.
It will get a 6 on IMDb and 6-8 PTA points.
It's not that bad of a choice in Ultimate, considering the low price tag. Don't take it in Box Office.
Top 5
Black Adam - 28 m
Ticket To Paradise - 10 m
Smile - 8 m
Prey For The Devil - 5 m
Till - 4 m
PTA
Armageddon Time
Holy Spider
The Banshees Of Inishierin
Black Adam
Ticket To Paradise
Join six next week for what will basically be the calm before the storm, with very few notable releases. Until then...
Four years, and I don't know what to put for an outro.
