Screening The Releases - October 21st

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Post Reply
User avatar
Screen203
Clark Griswald
Posts: 1170
Joined: December 1st, 2018, 3:38 pm
Location: Mullholland Dr.

Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

The supposed "ending" of the prolific Halloween series had a solid, but very front-loaded 40 m OW. WOM is borderline toxic, so it's unlikely to even have a 2x multiplier off of its OW. In second place was a horror film that is holding much better, Smile with 12 m, dropping only 32 percent despite the competition. In third, Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile held solidly with a 36 percent drop to 7 m. It should continue to hold, considering there is no competition for families. In fourth, The Woman King dropped only 28 percent, grossing almost 4 m. In fifth, last week's flop Amsterdam dropped 57 percent to almost 3 m - with Ticket To Paradise opening this weekend and horrible buzz, expect it to continue to descend fast. On the arthouse scene, Park Chan-Wook's latest Decision To Leave debuted with a strong 30 k average, and holdovers Tar and Triangle Of Sadness continued to impress, at least relative to the way the arthouse scene has been over the past few years.

This Week

Black Adam



The first superhero film starring Dwayne Johnson is likely going to be the biggest release since Nope in July. There's no question there is pent-up demand for a big film, and despite there not being a huge amount of buzz it should still do pretty well. Reviews have been mixed so far, but not bad enough to sink it completely. However, with Wakanda Forever approaching soon, it is likely to have short legs.

I see it grossing 60 m on its OW, and 140 m in total.

I think it may get a 5 on IMDB, 25-30 Top 5 points (despite Wakanda Forever likely completely killing its legs, there is little until Thanksgiving that will come close to even 10 m), and 5-12 PTA points.

A good choice in Box Office and Ultimate, but there are better options.

Ticket To Paradise



While this has done very well overseas, I'm not convinced it will be a massive hit here. Despite their huge successes this year, Universal has had issues recently marketing live-action comedies (and smaller non-horror releases in general - though even horror/horror-esque films have had issues under Universal and Focus, with films like Firestarter, Last Night In Soho, and to a lesser extent Beast not living up to their potential). This should do a lot better than most of their other releases (and most original, live-action comedies this year), as their isn't much competition for its target audience and it has recieved relatively positive reviews so far. Despite the difference in genre/release dates, I feel like a good target for it's OW may be the last George Clooney/Julia Roberts film Money Monster (though that, IMO, had a better marketing campaign).

I see it grossing 14 m on OW, and 48 m in total.

I think it will get a 6 on IMDb, 10-15 Top 5 points, and 0 PTA points.

I think it is an okay choice in both Box Office and Ultimate, but only because of the lack of mid-level choices that look like hits. However, I think that Violent Night or The Fablemans (particularly in Ultimate) will be better choices.

The Banshees Of Inisherin



Oscar buzz has been very hot on Martin McDonagh's follow-up to Three Billboards.... Helping hype build is the reunion of Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson 14 years after In Bruges. The question is whether the festival hype translates outside of the big cities (where it will be strong). I'm not so sure it will.

I actually think it may perform a bit like Wes Andreson's The French Dispatch (though it will rebound some if it gets the awards/nominations it has been predicted to) - large limited opening, but it won't have much in the way of mass appeal.

I think it gets a solid PTA around 40 k or so, but it will probably finish around 20 m in total.

It will get you no Top 5 points, an 8 on IMDb, and 7-15 PTA points depending on how fast it expands.

One of the better choices in Ultimate, and not horrible in Box Office.

Aftersun



The latest from A24 has had great reviews out of Cannes, especially for Paul Mescal's performance. However, it seems pretty niche, and I doubt it will cross over. It will probably have an okay limited opening, though.

It could get 20 k or so this weekend, but it probably won't even come close to 5 m in total.

It will get no Top 5 points, a 7 on IMDb, and around 4-7 PTA points.

Don't take it in Box Office. If you are looking for a smaller title to round out your Ultimate slate, I would say Holy Spider is a better choice.

Top 5

Black Adam - 60 m
Ticket To Paradise - 14 m
Smile - 10 m
Halloween Ends - 9 m
Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - 5 m

PTA

The Banshees Of Inshirein
Black Adam
Aftersun
Decision To Leave
Triangle Of Sadness

Next Week

A much more questionable (in terms of box office potential) slate opens, most of which being expansions, with the exception of the long-delayed Prey For The Devil. In limited release, Call Jane, James Gray's latest Armageddon Time, and the acclaimed Holy Spider open. No one is signed up to take this weekend on yet (I can if no one else wants to).
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

Image courtesy of -
https://nerdist.com/annihilation-shimmer-ending-explained/

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Agree with all of those predictions, although I think Aftersun could top Black Adam in PTA and Ticket to Paradise might end up closer to the current tracking number of $12 mil.

As for next weekend, you can take the honor of writing about Prey for the Devil's $150 mil opening ;)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Black Adam does under $50 million. Reviews have not been good and the target audience looks to be limited to the Snydercut community. Even with Dwayne Johnson, I expect audiences to wait for Black Panther, which is tracking three times what Black Adam is.

Meanwhile, Ticket to Paradise hasn't been getting good reviews either. Even with George Clooney coming out of retirement to make it, I find it more likely that audiences will for it to hit Prime in a few months to watch this one.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by numbersix »

We all thought that about Venom and look how it performed. And The Rock is way more popular than Tom Hardy. I think $60m opening feels about right, but we'll see.

I'm also quite high on Decision to Leave. I think it may surprise, as I know a lot of older people who want to see this. Could make 15m

Not convinced Aftersun will be a PTA champ. It's well liked but very subdued and has no stars.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

Venom was a more popular character though. A lot of people wanted a Venom movie. I don't think interest was very high on a Black Adam movie.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Preview totals:
Black Adam: $7.6 mil
Ticket to Paradise: $1.1 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Ticket to Paradise: A-
Black Adam: B+
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Black Adam $67 mil
Ticket to Paradise $16.3 mil
Smile $8.4 mil
Halloween Ends $8 mil
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $4.2 mil
The Woman King/Terrifier 2 $1.9 mil
Don't Worry Darling $880k
Amsterdam $818k
Triangle of Sadness $600k

PTA Debuts:
The Banshees of Inisherin $45,250
Aftersun $16,588
Return of Tanya Tucker $2,339
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7730
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals
1.Black Adam $67 mil
2.Ticket to Paradise $16.5 mil
3.Smile $8.4 mil
4.Halloween Ends $8 mil (-80%!!!!)
5.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $4.3 mil
6.The Woman King $1.9 mil
7.Terrifier 2 $1.8 mil
8.Don't Worry Darling $868k
9.Amsterdam $825k
10.Triangle of Sadness $601k

PTA:
1.The Banshees of Inisherin $46,113 (4 theaters-2nd best PTA start of 2022)
2.Aftersun $16,588 (4 theaters)
3.Black Adam $15,221
4.Descision to Leave $6,175 (48 theaters)
5.Ticket to Paradise $4,659

-Tar $3,546 (141 theaters)
-Till $3,495 (104 theaters)
-The Return of Tanya Tucker $2,419 (4 theaters)
-Triangle of Sadness $2,146 (280 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6662
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by Buscemi2 »

They should have ended the series with Halloween 2018. That was a great way to end it but greed won out in the end and the series suffered massively. Kills and Ends combined may fail to gross what the film before those two did domestically.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
numbersix
Darth Vader
Posts: 11545
Joined: October 21st, 2009, 2:34 pm

Re: Screening The Releases - October 21st

Post by numbersix »

Probably, but they still earned more than enough to generate a sweet little profit each.

Post Reply