Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

Moderators: Buscemi, BarcaRulz, Geezer, W

Post Reply
User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by transformers2 »

At this point, Paramount isn't going to want 2022 to end.

Their latest success story is Smile-which easily topped the box office for a 2nd straight weekend with an $18.5 mil 3-day haul. Its 18.3% weekend-to-weekend drop was the best hold the horror genre has seen since Get Out and the best non-major holiday weekend hold of the past 2.5 years. Through Monday, the film is now up to $53.4 mil total and could end up passing The Black Phone-which closed out its run a few weeks ago with just under $90 mil-as the year's highest grossing straight up horror film if the holds remain strong in the coming weeks. Safe to say, the studio brass has to be elated that they decided to send Parker Finn's feature debut to theaters instead of sticking with its initially planned Paramount+ release.

Elsewhere at the top of the box office, the news wasn't quite as bright. Sony's family musical comedy Lyle, Lyle Crocodile limped to an unremarkable $11.4 mil start, Amsterdam couldn't even meet its modest $10 mil tracking figure as David O. Russell's poorly-reviewed comeback vehicle could only muster up $6.4 mil in its OW and Bros fell out of the top 5 entirely as it dropped a higher than expected 56% in weekend #2. About the only silver linings present were The Woman King enjoying its best hold to date (24%) with a $5.2 mil showing that was good enough for the #4 spot and Don't Worry Darling-which made an even $3.5 mil-sticking around the top 5 for another weekend after enjoying a sub-50% drop that keeps its fleeting chances of ending its run with $50 mil alive.

Fortunately, the light Smile provided exhibitors did trickle down to the art house circuit with the strong openings of Tar and Triangle of Sadness. Todd Field's comeback vehicle and the 2022 Palm d'or winner put up per theater grosses of $39,655 and $21,460 respectively as they unofficially kicked off the award slate. If the majority of these contending titles slated for theatrical release over the next 3 months can produce similar numbers, the specialty market's long-awaited recovery hopes could inch closer to becoming a reality.

Wide Release:
Nearly 45 years after John Carpenter introduced Michael Myers to the world and birthed the slasher subgenre in the process, the iconic Halloween franchise is coming to a symbolic conclusion with the cleverly titled Halloween Ends (Universal). Will it prove to be the actual end of the franchise? Probably not, especially since Blumhouse/Universal is losing the series rights after the release of Ends. It is however the definitive end of Jamie Lee Curtis playing Laurie Strode and watching this PTSD-afflicted iteration of her iconic character engage in one final showdown with the masked killer that's tormented her for decades is the primary selling point of Ends.

If we've learned anything from the performances of both the well-received 2018 reboot and last year's polarizing sequel Kills, it's that these Halloween titles are not built for long box office runs. Both previous installments made over 45% of their money on opening weekend and Kills put together a particularly impressive frontloaded run by earning a whopping 53.7% of its $92 mill total BO in its inaugural 3 days of release. The drops for Ends could prove to be even steeper if the whispers of the movie testing horribly end up being accurate and translating to the general moviegoing population. The promise of Strode engage in a closure-seeking battle with Myers could bring out enough people for Ends to rival Kills $49 mil OW take, but the aforementioned mixed reaction to Kills, real potential for bad WOM and slight dent Peacock's 200 strong subscriber base will provide to the weekend ticket sales make an opening that matches or exceeds the $76 mil haul of the 2018 trilogy starter feel unattainable. Ultimately, I think Ends will end up somewhere around Kills total, if not a bit higher due to the finality of it.

Price: $15 ULT/$16 BO
Predictions: $28-55 mil OW/3-5 PTA/5-7 Top 5/low to mid 5 IMDB/$55-95 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Based on how steep the drops for both installments have been and the strong likelihood that Ends follows suit, it's a really shaky pickup in ULT. BO is a bit safer, but since we all took Wakanda Forever and Avatar, there's no room for any other title.


Limited Releases:
The story of Emmett Till is one of the most viscerally devastating tales to come out of the Segregation-era of the United States. In Till (MGM/Orion), Chinonye Chukwu (Clemency) tells the lesser known story of how his mother Mamie used the devastation of her son's brutal murder to become a prolific civil rights activist.

Unlike their quick dump of Three Thousand Years of Longing, Amazon is being more patient with Till as the film is getting a proper platform release-starting in 16 theaters in 10 markets this weekend before its eventual wide expansion on the 28th. Given the solid early reviews and strong likelihood of it receiving high exit polling marks, this should give it the time it needs to find an audience. Further bolstering Till's appeal is that it's considerably more mainstream than Tar, Triangle of Sadness and The Banshess of Inisherin and should be able to secure a high enough theater count upon its wide expansion to earn some top 5 points.

There are however several factors that could clip Till's wings. For starters, the awards prospects don't seem to be overly strong. Danielle Deadwyler should be in the conversation for a Best Actress nomination for her acclaimed turn as Mamie, but Amazon is likely putting their full weight behind the better-reviewed Women Talking and none of the supporting performances or technical aspects have been cited as prolific enough to garner the attention of the voting bodies from any of the major organizations that pass out coveted gold trophies.

Then there's of course the major question of whether or not Amazon knows what the hell they're doing from a marketing standpoint. Their track record pre-MGM acquisition was dubious at best and the lack of real marketing muscle they poured into Three Thousand Years of Longing-which is admittedly a tricky movie to market-doesn't inspire confidence that they've learned from their past mistakes. To their credit, I saw a couple of TV spots during the NFL slate last Sunday, so maybe that's a sign that they are giving to it a real push.

The final key component is the possibility that the subject matter alienates people-especially in the black community. While the film is told from Mamie's perspective and Chukwu has publicly stated that Till's fatal lynching is not shown in the film, watching something that deals with the aftermath of a heinous hate crime could very well be too much for some people to stomach.


Price: $5 ULT/$4 BO
Predictions: $300-600k OW/3-9 PTA/0-4 Top 5/high 6 to low 7 IMDB/$8-25 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Even if it retains a low double digit theater count throughout its 2 weeks of limited release and steals some Top 5 points once it goes wide, there are several other similarly-priced titles that have more upside.


We did it America, we're finally getting Decision to Leave (MUBI)!!! Park Chan-wook's first feature since 2016's The Handmaiden has been the toast of the global film community since it premiered at Cannes back in May and its stock has only elevated further following several successful screenings on the North American festival circuit and the confirmation came in that South Korea had officially selected it as their entry for the Best International Feature Oscar. Cinephiles in NYC/LA should eagerly take advantage of their chance to finally see the acclaimed romantic noir mystery and storm whatever theaters are showing it, but MUBI's cloudy future distribution plans and a deep field of similarly praised indie titles hitting theaters in the coming weeks could limit its PTA output.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $65k-150k OW/4-10 PTA/0 Top 5/low to mid 7 IMDB/$500k-$3 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Given its small price tag, it should be.


Weekend Predictions:
1.Halloween Ends $45 mil
2.Smile $10 mil
3.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $7.5 mil
4.The Woman King $3.5 mil
5.Amsterdam $3 mil

PTA: Decision to Leave, Till, Tar, Halloween Ends, Triangle of Sadness

Tune in next week when Screen breaks down the prospects of George Clooney and Julia Roberts' return to 2007 romcoms, The Rock's latest lightly promoted blockbuster jaunt and the long overdue reunion of the trio that were most responsible for making In Bruges sing.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

I think Halloween Ends is being overestimated by trackers. Halloween Kills was a disappointment both critically and financially and even though this is supposed to be the last one, we know that Michael Myers will be back. Also, Smile is still doing well. I'll be surprised if Ends fares better than Kills.

Meanwhile, I think Decision to Leave could play like a mini-Parasite. Yes, MUBI is unproven as a US theatrical distributor but Park is a beloved director among cinephiles and Korean culture is big right now. I feel it could get up to $10 million at the box office.

Edit: apparently Halloween Ends is even worse than Halloween Kills, according to response at the premiere. Looks like Universal was smart not to have this one shown at Toronto like the last two were.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

So far, it looks Halloween Ends will only do slightly better than Halloween Kills, as it did $5.4 million in Thursday previews. But depending on how word-of-mouth is, it could drop harder.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

Halloween Ends is looking at a $20 million Friday and a $43 million weekend. It's definitely not going to pass Halloween Kills.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascore:

Halloween Ends: C+ (lowest of the David Gordon Green entries)
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Halloween Ends $41.2 mil
Smile $12.4 mil
Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $7.4 mil
The Woman King $3.7 mil
Amsterdam $2.9 mil
Don't Worry Darling $2.2 mil
Barbarian $1.4 mil
Bros $900k
Terrifer 2 $850k
Top Gun: Maverick $685k

PTA:
Descision to Leave $30,200
Till $15,000
Triangle of Sadness $10,850
Tar $10,000
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm still trying to figure out how Terrifier 2 held so well. It had to have been either spillover from Halloween or Smile or the same people who are convinced this needed to be a thing and get defensive towards the general majority of people who weren't even aware there was a first film going to see it again. Usually, something like this is either gone from theatres after the first week or drops 70-75%.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by transformers2 »

Simple: WOM. Hardcore horror fans loved it and there was a lot of social media chatter about how people were puking and passing out in the theater, which definitely helped sell some tickets
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

User avatar
Buscemi2
Mad Max
Posts: 6664
Joined: July 25th, 2017, 9:13 pm
Location: Neither here nor there.

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by Buscemi2 »

So people who think graphic violence and gore equals scares. These guys are the Snydercut of the horror community and give the genre a bad name.

You could show them a masterpiece like Eyes Without a Face or Nosferatu and they would hate it because there aren't enough gruesome deaths. Being excessive and making people sick for your enjoyment is not fun.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

User avatar
transformers2
John Rambo
Posts: 7731
Joined: October 23rd, 2009, 5:15 pm

Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/14

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Halloween Ends $40.1 mil
2.Smile $12.6 mil
3.Lyle, Lyle Crocodile $7.4 mil
4.The Woman King $3.7 mil
5.Amsterdam $2.8 mil
6.Don't Worry Darling $2.2 mil
7.Barbarian $1.4 mil
8.Terrifer 2 $1 mil
9.Bros $934k
10.Top Gun: Maverick $688k

PTA:
1.Decision to Leave $32,066 (3 theaters)
2.Till $15,141 (16 theaters)
3.Triangle of Sadness $10,757 (31 theaters)
4.Halloween Ends $10,266
5.TAR $9,166 (36 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

Post Reply