SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/07
Posted: October 6th, 2022, 3:15 am
Well folks, it’s been a pretty busy week for me, so I’m going to have to dash through this week’s films. So if the pithy comments and puns are less frequent, don’t worry, it’s not you, it’s me.
Lyle Lyle Crocodile (Sony)
I have to come clean – I know absolutely nothing about this film, and I’m going off the title alone. Presumably it’s about a hillbilly swamp-dweller. The creature Florida-Man carries into drug stores without knowing how or why. I don’t know. All I know is that it’s a kids film, the first since the summer, so it’s going to win this weekend with ease, and hold well across the month. Given its relatively low price tag, this is well worth picking up, particularly in Ultimate as it remains in the Top 5 over October.
Amsterdam (Disney)
This ensemble comedic thriller screams Oscars almost as much as director David O Russell screams at his cast. Before the film passed the eyes of critics, this could have been a $100m sleeper, thanks toa cast of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, De Niro, Chris Rock, and just about everyone else. And then it didn’t come out in any fest, with claims that it wasn’t ready or the director wanted an IMAX premiere or some nonsense. In reality, the studio knew it’s no good and the reviews proved this to be true, with a rotten RT score. The cast may attract some audience, but don’t expect much from this – a $10m opening and $30m cume at best, with a handful of T5 and 1-2 PTA points in Ultimate, makes this, quite like the city itself, over-priced.
On the limited side, there are 4 films coming out. 2 of which, Pretty Problems (IFC) and Dark Glasses (IFC too). As we know about IFC, their limited budget tends to ensure only major festival players or established auteur films tend to break out. So skip.
However, Tár (Focus) is out this weekend. A drama about a fictional female composer, this doesn’t scream like a sell-out crowd. Writer/director Todd Field has been away for so long that there are legal adults older than his last film, Little Children. However, the reviews have been stellar out of the big festivals, and Cate Blanchett’s performance will probably earn her yet another Oscar nomination. Coming out in only a handful of theatres this weekend, this could be a PTA goldmine. Nab it.
Triangle of Sadness (NEON) was the surprise win of Cannes’s Palm D’Or this year. Despite many thinking it’s not Ruben Ostlund’s finest 2.5 hours (his previous film The Square also won the Palm D’Or, and Force Majeure is arguably his best film), this tri-part takedown of celeb and upper-class culture nevertheless struck a chord. The problem is that it seems to be coming out in quite a few theatres this weekend, making its PTA potential weaker. So it may not be worth the pricetag, even if it could earn a few million in the box office.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - $17m
2. Amsterdam - $10m
3. Smile - $10m
4. The Woman King- $4.5m
5. Don’t Worry Darling- $3.2m
PTA: Tár, Lyle, Triangle, Amsterdam, Smile
Next week sees the new trilogy end with, appropriately, Halloween Ends, as well as Till and Decision to Leave coming out as limited releases. Tranny has the tea.
Lyle Lyle Crocodile (Sony)
I have to come clean – I know absolutely nothing about this film, and I’m going off the title alone. Presumably it’s about a hillbilly swamp-dweller. The creature Florida-Man carries into drug stores without knowing how or why. I don’t know. All I know is that it’s a kids film, the first since the summer, so it’s going to win this weekend with ease, and hold well across the month. Given its relatively low price tag, this is well worth picking up, particularly in Ultimate as it remains in the Top 5 over October.
Amsterdam (Disney)
This ensemble comedic thriller screams Oscars almost as much as director David O Russell screams at his cast. Before the film passed the eyes of critics, this could have been a $100m sleeper, thanks toa cast of Christian Bale, Margot Robbie, John David Washington, De Niro, Chris Rock, and just about everyone else. And then it didn’t come out in any fest, with claims that it wasn’t ready or the director wanted an IMAX premiere or some nonsense. In reality, the studio knew it’s no good and the reviews proved this to be true, with a rotten RT score. The cast may attract some audience, but don’t expect much from this – a $10m opening and $30m cume at best, with a handful of T5 and 1-2 PTA points in Ultimate, makes this, quite like the city itself, over-priced.
On the limited side, there are 4 films coming out. 2 of which, Pretty Problems (IFC) and Dark Glasses (IFC too). As we know about IFC, their limited budget tends to ensure only major festival players or established auteur films tend to break out. So skip.
However, Tár (Focus) is out this weekend. A drama about a fictional female composer, this doesn’t scream like a sell-out crowd. Writer/director Todd Field has been away for so long that there are legal adults older than his last film, Little Children. However, the reviews have been stellar out of the big festivals, and Cate Blanchett’s performance will probably earn her yet another Oscar nomination. Coming out in only a handful of theatres this weekend, this could be a PTA goldmine. Nab it.
Triangle of Sadness (NEON) was the surprise win of Cannes’s Palm D’Or this year. Despite many thinking it’s not Ruben Ostlund’s finest 2.5 hours (his previous film The Square also won the Palm D’Or, and Force Majeure is arguably his best film), this tri-part takedown of celeb and upper-class culture nevertheless struck a chord. The problem is that it seems to be coming out in quite a few theatres this weekend, making its PTA potential weaker. So it may not be worth the pricetag, even if it could earn a few million in the box office.
Predictions for the weekend
1. Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile - $17m
2. Amsterdam - $10m
3. Smile - $10m
4. The Woman King- $4.5m
5. Don’t Worry Darling- $3.2m
PTA: Tár, Lyle, Triangle, Amsterdam, Smile
Next week sees the new trilogy end with, appropriately, Halloween Ends, as well as Till and Decision to Leave coming out as limited releases. Tranny has the tea.