Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

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Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by transformers2 »

The most goofy scandal-driven movie delivered one of the most anonymous box office openings of the year thus far.

Don't Worry Darling proved to be neither the trainwreck the gossiphounds we're hoping for nor the roaring success some people expected it to be as it secured a $19.4 mil opening. While it did notch the best opening in over a month and has a good chance of ultimately earning some cash for the embattled dopes running Warner Brothers, the mixed WOM and relatively frontloaded start on the whole indicate that Olivia Wilde's sophomore feature isn't going to stick around for very long. At least we'll always have Spitgate.

Some would argue that the real MVP of the weekend was the re-release of James Cameron's Avatar. Despite only being in 1,860 theaters, the remastered 3D version of the 2009 blockbuster-which primarily played in IMAX/Dolby/4DX runs-grossed $10.5 mil and debuted at #3 at the box office. While these results have naturally led to some extremely bullish takes on the BO prospects of the upcoming sequel (I've seen numbers as high as $800 mil domestic floating around the bowels of the internet), it's impossible to deny that this is proof that Avatar fans do indeed exist and the Way of Water will do just fine in December.

On the holdover front, The Woman King showed pretty strong legs by raking in $11 mil in weekend #2. The crowdpleasing historical action epic has made $36.1 mil through 9 days of release and should be able to make $75 or so mil by the end of its run if it doesn't get overshadowed by all of the adult-skewing drams that are lined up for October.

Rounding out the top 5 was Barbarian-which rode its strong WOM to another exceptional hold ($4.8 mil, only 26% off from the prior weekend) and See How They Run-which hung around nicely ($1.9 mil, -36%) after its modest opening last week.

Wide Releases:
Since Happiest Season was forced to pivot to a streaming release in fall 2020, Bros (Universal) gets the honor of being the first gay romantic comedy produced by a major studio to receive a theatrical release. Universal has made this historical moment the focal point of their marketing campaign and rightfully so, since it's a feat worthy of celebration that will definitely bring people out to support the cause. Will this lead to solid box office numbers? Let's just say, I have my doubts. Comedy has been a risky dice roll for a number of years now and to put it very mildly, the subject matter of Bros isn't going to endear itself to certain audiences in this country and that hurdle could prove to be too much for Billy Eichner's longtime passion project to overcome. I'd be delighted if Bros beat the odds and was a groundbreaking success that gave a triumphant middle finger to all of the homophobes out there, but I fully expect next month's Ticket to Paradise to be the highest-grossing romantic comedy of the fall.
Price: $4 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $8-15 mil OW (Total BO: $25-50 mil)/3-5 PTA/3-5Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: It'll prove to be a solid final weekend value given it's cheap price tag and guaranteed Top 5/PTA points, but Smile is a dollar cheaper in ULT and will probably end up winning the weekend and earning a higher IMDb score.


Continuing this current extended run of new, non-IP horror titles hitting theaters is Smile (Paramount). This psychological/supernatural horror project from first-time feature director Parker Finn tells the story of a young psychologist (Sosie Bacon) who is being haunted by a demon who uses the smiling faces of human beings to torment its victims before forced them to commit suicide. Paramount CEO Brian Robbins recently revealed on a shareholder's call that Smile was originally set to debut on Paramount+, but after strong test screening scores, they decided to make it a theatrical release.

Robbins appears to have made the right call as the film is getting very good early word from critics as well as the genre fans who caught the film at Fantastic Fest and Beyond Fest over the past week. Pair those strong early reactions with an aggressive, clever marketing campaign and the PLF boost it will receive from the Dolby/4DX screens that Avatar is ceding and you have the makings of a potential modest hit. A run that's at least comparable to this month's other well-received, R-rated major studio shocker Barbarian should prove to be attainable for Smile.
Price: $3 ULT/$3 BO
Predictions: $10-18 mil OW (Total BO: $30-55 mil)/4-5 PTA/4-5 Top 5/low to mid 6 IMDB
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: 100%


Limited Releases:
The Good House (Roadside/Lionsgate) is one of those movies that probably would been a nice little modest hit prior to the pandemic. This romantic dramedy centered around a divorced alcoholic realtor (Sigourney Weaver) and grumpy contractor (Kevin Kline) who reconnect several decades after they first dated received respectable reviews following its debut in Toronto last fall and has the exact kind of warm, low-stakes pleasant atmosphere that would make older audiences melt. Now, it's the kind of thing Roadside dumps into 600 or so theaters for 2 weeks before it shimmies its way onto PVOD. That's just the sad state of independent cinema at the moment and that shit isn't going to change if movies keep getting released in this fashion.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $800k-$1.5 mil OW (Total BO: $1-$3.5 mil)/0-2 PTA/0 Top 5/mid to high 6 IMDB
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: While it has a shot of stealing a PTA point or two, it's probably not worth the space on your slate.


Vesper (IFC) is a Lithuanian sci-fi movie featuring a predominantly British cast (Raffiela Chapman, Eddie Marsan, Rosey McEwen and Richard Brake have top billing) that earned praise for its ambition and scope following its multiple festival screenings over the past few months. Unfortunately, it's a day-and-date release so that good buzz will ultimately translate to nothing of value in our game.
Price: $2 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $15-35k OW (Total BO: $30-70k) /0 PTA/high 6 to low 7 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Nope


Weekend Predictions:
1.Smile $15 mil
2.Bros $12 mil
3.The Woman King $8 mil
4.Don't Worry Darling $7 mil
5.Avatar Re-Release $4 mil

PTA: Smile, Bros, The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, Avatar Re-Release

Tune in next week when six breaks down a slate that includes David O. Russell's star-studded comeback project, a lower-key comeback vehicle that's anchored by Cate Blanchett's latest Oscar-contending performance and the Shawn Mendes/Javier Bardem collaboration the world has been clamoring for since 2014.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by Buscemi2 »

I have to imagine Bros does better since it looks like a feature-length episode of Will & Grace, meaning that it will probably play a lot better to straight audiences.

As for Smile, I cannot fathom why this is getting good reviews. It looks like a lower quality Blumhouse production.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by transformers2 »

Preview totals:
Smile: $2 mil
Bros: $500k
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by numbersix »

That looks like a 16m opening for Smile and a sub 5-8m opening for Bros.

I STILL keep thinking Bros is the biopic of the 80s British boy band

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm thinking Billy Eichner was just the wrong choice to headline a movie. I've never understood why he's considered funny. Well, that and Universal didn't do a good job marketing it, not doing pre-release screenings to increase interest and instead choosing to reissue unrelated films (Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Knocked Up, Trainwreck) via Fathom Events to promote it, along with an unappealing trailer that made the characters completely unlikeable.

Anyway, between this and Easter Sunday flopping and Netflix changing its approach for stand-up, entertainment outlets are going to decline for comedians unless you were already a name to begin with. It could years before we get another Hannah Gadsby figure who comes out of nowhere to be a star.
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by JohnErle »

numbersix wrote:
September 30th, 2022, 12:45 pm
I STILL keep thinking Bros is the biopic of the 80s British boy band
Silly goose. Don't you know Bros is the first gay rom-com ever produced by a major Hollywood studio to hit theaters. I'm pretty sure the promotional material mentioned that once or twice.

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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

Bros: A (so it does look like the ad campaign was the problem)
Smile: B-
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
Smile $22 mil
Don't Worry Darling $7.3 mil
The Woman King $7 mil
Bros $4.8 mil
Avatar Re-release $4.7 mil
Ponniyan Selvan: Part One $4.1 mil
Barbarian $2.8 mil
Bullet Train $1.4 mil
DC League of Superpets $1.3 mil
Top Gun: Maverick $1.2 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 9/30

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Smile $22.6 mil
2.Don't Worry Darling $6.84 mil
3.The Woman King $6.82 mil
4.Avatar Re-Release $5 mil
5.Bros $4.9 mil
6.Ponniyin Selvan $4 mil
7.Barbarian $2.8 mil
8.Bullet Train $1.3 mil
9.DC League of Superpets $1.24 mil
10.Top Gun: Maverick $1.19 mil

15.The Good House $797k

PTA:
1.Smile $6,202
2.Avatar Re-Release $2,694
3.The Woman King $1,947
4.Don't Worry Darling $1,661
5.Bros $1,448

-The Good House $751 (1,046 theaters)
-Vesper $521 (44 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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