Screening The Releases - September 16th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - September 16th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

Barbarian, despite a relatively muted marketing campaign, grossed a solid 10 m over its OW, helped by great reviews. Brahmastara: Part 1, another Disney film, grossed about 4.5 m in second - a solid debut, although it is likely very frontloaded. That is about where the good news ends. In third and fourth were Bullet Train and Top Gun: Maverick, each grossing in the 3 m range. In fifth was The Invitation with 2 m.

This Week

The Woman King



This has quite a strong trailer and great reviews. While Viola Davis has somewhat of a mixed track record as a lead at the box office (and historical epics have had issues connecting with audiences in theaters as of late), this should at the very least outgross her last film Widows and all of the historical epic movies released over the past few years.

I see a 21 m OW, and a 70 m total.

It will probably get a 6 on IMDb, 8-10 Top 5 points, and 5-7 PTA points.

A solid choice in both Box Office and Ultimate.

Pearl



This prequel to X has a decent amount of buzz, but most of it seems to be from fans of the original. Despite also receiving great reviews, it seems too niche to appeal to anyone who wasn't a fan of the original (that being said, I didn't like X much and I think this looks better), but that crowd is large enough it should perform relatively similar.

I see a 4 m OW and a 9 m total.

It will probably get a 7 on IMDb, 3 Top 5 points, and 1 PTA points.

I wouldn't recommend taking it in Box Office, and only as a last resort in Ultimate.

See How They Run



On paper, this sounds like it should have been a sleeper hit - it looks similar to Knives Out and seems to a bit of inspiration from Wes Anderson (in particular, The Grand Budapest Hotel.) However, it has pretty much been dumped completely by Disney/Searchlight, despite decent (if not great) reviews. Then again, Barbarian actually opened decently despite only slightly better treatment, so it could surprise a bit.

I see a 3 m OW and an 9 m total.

It will get you a 7 on IMDb, 2 Top 5 points, and 1 PTA point.

I would not recommend taking it in either Box Office or Ultimate.

Moonage Daydream



Some of Neon's largest successes happen to be documentaries, such as Three Identical Strangers and Apollo 11. Despite the subject matter of this film being David Bowie, I feel like the appeal of this film is very narrow (moreso than even the documentaries listed above) and I don't see it lasting that long at the box office. Still, the IMAX opening should be strong.

I see an under 1 m OW, and a 5 m total.

I think it will get an 8 on IMDb, 0 Top 5 points, and 5-7 PTA points.

I wouldn't recommend it in Box Office, but it's a decent choice in Ultimate.

The Silent Twins



While this received solid reviews out of Cannes, buzz is nonexistent, and it is receiving the infamous semi-wide release. In addition, there are four other releases competing for the crowd that would see this.

I see under 1 m for its OW, and a 2 m total.

It will get a 6 on IMDb, and zero Top 5 or PTA points.

To say the very least, do not take this on any slate.

Top 5

The Woman King - 21 m
Barbarian - 6 m
Pearl - 4 m
See How They Run - 3 m
Bullet Train - 2 m

PTA

Moonage Daydream
The Woman King
Barbarian
See How They Run
Pearl

Next Week

six will cover the new releases, including the controversy-magnet Don't Worry Darling and the rare re-release to be included in the game, a re-release of Avatar.
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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 16th

Post by Buscemi2 »

For American moviegoers, if you use the code QUANTUMLEAPDAY on Fandango from now until the 30th, you can see any movie for $3.55. There are no restrictions. Yes, you can even use the code on IMAX.

Meanwhile, Pearl was tracking low single digits and some theatres are being able to screen-split it with other titles. It probably fails to clear $2 million for the weekend. See How They Run likely does better.
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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Buscemi2
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 16th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Cinemascores:

The Woman King: A+
Pearl: B-
See How They Run: B-
It's like what Lenin said...I am the walrus.

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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 16th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Estimates:
The Woman King $19 mil
Barbarian $6.3 mil
Pearl/See How They Run $3.1 mil
Bullet Train $2.5 mil
DC League of Superpets/Top Gun: Maverick $2.2 mil
The Invitation $1.7 mil
Minions: The Rise of Gru $1.3 mil
Moonage Daydream $1.2 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - September 16th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.The Woman King $19.1 mil
2.Barbarian $6.5 mil
3.Pearl $3.1 mil
4.See How They Run $3 mil
5.Bullet Train $2.6 mil
6.Top Gun: Maverick $2.24 mil
7.DC League of Superpets $2.18 mil
8.The Invitation $1.8 mil
9.Minions: The Rise of Gru $1.4 mil
10.Moonage Daydream $1.2 mil

-The Silent Twins $104k

PTA:
1.Moonage Daydream $7,236
2.The Woman King $5,060
3.Barbarian $2,777
4.Brashmastra Part One $1,358
5.See How They Run $1,251

-Pearl $1,064
-The Silent Twins $372 (279 theaters)
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
Check out my blog http://maitlandsmadness.blogspot.com/
Movies,Music,Sports and More!

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