Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 8/19
Posted: August 16th, 2022, 6:06 pm
After nearly 3 straight months of solid performances that largely reaffirmed the viability of theatrical films in the current media landscape, the late summer box office blues are in full effect.
Repeat box office champion Bullet Train was the sole film to clear $10 million on a weekend that saw no new films open in more than 1,548 theaters (that film would be Fall-which made $2.5 mil and finished in the #10 spot). Really the only other positive performances of note were Top Gun: Maverick using its “re-release” status to spring back up to the #2 spot after falling out of the top 5 last weekend for the 1st time since it was released, black comedy slasher Bodies Bodies Bodies posting respectable numbers ($3.3 mil) in its initial wide expansion ahead of its even wider break this weekend and Elvis clearing the $140 mil mark by banking another $2.6 mil in its 8th weekend of release.
Shockingly, this relatively uneventful weekend actually represented a slight uptick over the same weekend last year where Free Guy's $28.3 mil debut was the lone highlight and every film in the bottom half of the top 10 made less than what Fall did this year. This proves that even in the slowest weekends, more people are going to theaters now than they were a year ago-which is great news for anybody that loves to see movies on the big screen.
Wide Release:
Hollywood's last hope for a late summer hit appears to be riding on the shoulders of Idris Elba and a pissed off lion that's terrorizing the residents of a South African village. Beast (Universal) represents the latest effort from Universal to deliver the type of product that other studios have decided to keep out of theaters following the COVID lockdowns and this is a gamble that could pay off better than some of the others that didn't really work out earlier in the year (Marry Me, Ambulance, Redeeming Love).
Almost 50 years after Jaws turned creature features into summer movie mainstays, people have continued to show up for people vs. animal movies during these warm weather months. During the 2010's, smaller, counterprogramming titles like The Shallows, Crawl and 47 Meters Down all turned into modest hits. The genre even recently spawned one legit surprise blockbuster with 2018's The Meg that spawned a sequel that's currently set to hit theaters next summer. With Elba in the lead role and the unique hook of a lion hunting people down, Beast should end up being the film that carries this genre's success into yet another decade.
.
While Beast is more likely to be the next Crawl than the next Meg, it does have a luxury that none of the other recent titles from this genre have had: The box office pretty much all to itself. Bullet Train will more than likely dip into the single digit grosses in weekend #3, there's no other non-niche wide release this weekend and the total wide releases set for the following 3 weeks won't exceed 4 (I have no clue if Honk for Jesus, Save You Soul is going wide or limited). All Beast needs to do to stay relevant for the next month is secure a double digit OW this weekend and not get torched by aggressively bad WOM-which feels unlikely considering the track record of director Baltsar Kormakur and how the other aforementioned films (with the possible exception of 47 Meters Down-although it did post a 4X multiplier despite its below average exit polling) were received.
Price: $9 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions: $10-18 mil OW/8-15 PTA/10-19 Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$35-65 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering its cheap price tag and the high likelihood of it racking up a large over Top 5/PTA points over the pretty barren next 3-4 weeks at the box office, it has the potential to be a home run pick in ULT. BO won't be quite as hot since it will likely finish somewhere between $40-50 mil, but it should still provide solid value for its price.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (Sony/Crunchyroll) isn't in the game, but it's absolutely worth mentioning. Dragonball remains a pretty beloved property in the anime world and it has most of the IMAX screens to itself this weekend, so there is a decent shot that it steals the #1 spot from Elba vs. Lion.
Limited Release:
Spin Me Round (IFC) is in a uniquely bad position for our game this weekend. Jeff Baena's latest oddball ensemble comedy centered around a chain restaurant manager (Alison Brie) that gets much more than she bargained for when she wins a trip to Italy to meet the chain's wealthy owner (Alessandro Nivola) isn't just going day-and-date with theaters and VOD on Friday, it's also immediately debuting on AMC+. Even more so than the typical non-theatrical exclusive IFC release, Spin Me Round will not benefit your slate at all.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $20-30k OW/0 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$40-$60k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No
Weekend Predictions:
1.Beast $16 mil
2.Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero $13 mil
3.Bullet Train $9 mil
4.DC League of Superpets $5 mil
5.Bodies Bodies Bodies/Top Gun: Maverick $4 mil
PTA: Beast, Bullet Train, Bodies Bodies Bodies, DC League of Superpets, Thor: Love and Thunder
Tune in next week when six previews a slate that includes the biggest bloodsucking wedding event of the year, George Miller's latest psychedelic journey and a film that ended up being the last production the late great Michael K. Williams was apart of.
Repeat box office champion Bullet Train was the sole film to clear $10 million on a weekend that saw no new films open in more than 1,548 theaters (that film would be Fall-which made $2.5 mil and finished in the #10 spot). Really the only other positive performances of note were Top Gun: Maverick using its “re-release” status to spring back up to the #2 spot after falling out of the top 5 last weekend for the 1st time since it was released, black comedy slasher Bodies Bodies Bodies posting respectable numbers ($3.3 mil) in its initial wide expansion ahead of its even wider break this weekend and Elvis clearing the $140 mil mark by banking another $2.6 mil in its 8th weekend of release.
Shockingly, this relatively uneventful weekend actually represented a slight uptick over the same weekend last year where Free Guy's $28.3 mil debut was the lone highlight and every film in the bottom half of the top 10 made less than what Fall did this year. This proves that even in the slowest weekends, more people are going to theaters now than they were a year ago-which is great news for anybody that loves to see movies on the big screen.
Wide Release:
Hollywood's last hope for a late summer hit appears to be riding on the shoulders of Idris Elba and a pissed off lion that's terrorizing the residents of a South African village. Beast (Universal) represents the latest effort from Universal to deliver the type of product that other studios have decided to keep out of theaters following the COVID lockdowns and this is a gamble that could pay off better than some of the others that didn't really work out earlier in the year (Marry Me, Ambulance, Redeeming Love).
Almost 50 years after Jaws turned creature features into summer movie mainstays, people have continued to show up for people vs. animal movies during these warm weather months. During the 2010's, smaller, counterprogramming titles like The Shallows, Crawl and 47 Meters Down all turned into modest hits. The genre even recently spawned one legit surprise blockbuster with 2018's The Meg that spawned a sequel that's currently set to hit theaters next summer. With Elba in the lead role and the unique hook of a lion hunting people down, Beast should end up being the film that carries this genre's success into yet another decade.
.
While Beast is more likely to be the next Crawl than the next Meg, it does have a luxury that none of the other recent titles from this genre have had: The box office pretty much all to itself. Bullet Train will more than likely dip into the single digit grosses in weekend #3, there's no other non-niche wide release this weekend and the total wide releases set for the following 3 weeks won't exceed 4 (I have no clue if Honk for Jesus, Save You Soul is going wide or limited). All Beast needs to do to stay relevant for the next month is secure a double digit OW this weekend and not get torched by aggressively bad WOM-which feels unlikely considering the track record of director Baltsar Kormakur and how the other aforementioned films (with the possible exception of 47 Meters Down-although it did post a 4X multiplier despite its below average exit polling) were received.
Price: $9 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions: $10-18 mil OW/8-15 PTA/10-19 Top 5/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$35-65 mil total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Considering its cheap price tag and the high likelihood of it racking up a large over Top 5/PTA points over the pretty barren next 3-4 weeks at the box office, it has the potential to be a home run pick in ULT. BO won't be quite as hot since it will likely finish somewhere between $40-50 mil, but it should still provide solid value for its price.
Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero (Sony/Crunchyroll) isn't in the game, but it's absolutely worth mentioning. Dragonball remains a pretty beloved property in the anime world and it has most of the IMAX screens to itself this weekend, so there is a decent shot that it steals the #1 spot from Elba vs. Lion.
Limited Release:
Spin Me Round (IFC) is in a uniquely bad position for our game this weekend. Jeff Baena's latest oddball ensemble comedy centered around a chain restaurant manager (Alison Brie) that gets much more than she bargained for when she wins a trip to Italy to meet the chain's wealthy owner (Alessandro Nivola) isn't just going day-and-date with theaters and VOD on Friday, it's also immediately debuting on AMC+. Even more so than the typical non-theatrical exclusive IFC release, Spin Me Round will not benefit your slate at all.
Price: $3 ULT/$1 BO
Predictions: $20-30k OW/0 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$40-$60k total BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No
Weekend Predictions:
1.Beast $16 mil
2.Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero $13 mil
3.Bullet Train $9 mil
4.DC League of Superpets $5 mil
5.Bodies Bodies Bodies/Top Gun: Maverick $4 mil
PTA: Beast, Bullet Train, Bodies Bodies Bodies, DC League of Superpets, Thor: Love and Thunder
Tune in next week when six previews a slate that includes the biggest bloodsucking wedding event of the year, George Miller's latest psychedelic journey and a film that ended up being the last production the late great Michael K. Williams was apart of.