Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 5/27
Posted: May 24th, 2022, 6:33 pm
Despite some optimism among industry power players, last weekend didn't mark the start of a New Era for senior-driven fare at the box office.
While the Downton Abbey sequel put up perfectly fine numbers ($16 mil) that were in line with the film's international openings, it also wasn't the catalyst for this key demographic many hoped it would be. Maybe, next month's Elvis can be the film that finally bring the 55+ crowd back in droves. (Note: While Top Gun certainly has appeal with that crowd, I'd argue that people in their mid 40's to early 50's are the primary target audience).
Fellow new opener Men fell more in line with its modest expectations as Alex Garland's latest polarizing creation scooped up $3.3 mil from 2,200 theaters. Given the extremely split reaction among the A24 faithful and complete lack of mainstream appeal, a huge second weekend drop could be on the dance card.
On the holdover front, Doctor Strange once again sat atop the box office. By grossing a slightly better than expected $32.3 mil, Multiverse of Madness returned to the MCU third weekend standard drop (48%) after a steeper than average fall (67%) in week two. The Sam Raimi-directed effort is sitting at just under $343 mil domestic through three weeks and should be able to hit the $400 million milestone sometime next week.
Wide Releases:
After no less than 66 delays over the past 4 years, Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) is finally hitting theaters. Tom Cruise's return to the role that kickstarted his ascent to superstardom sees him going from hotshot rookie Navy aviator to loose cannon Navy aviator instructor whose brought in by his old friend Iceman (Val Kilmer)-who is now an Admiral-to oversee a new team of hotshot young pilots that just happens to include the son (Miles Teller) of his late friend Goose. Cue up the melodrama folks!
In terms of established properties, there's no bigger wild card on the summer release calendar. While it has a clear floor that exceeds $100 mil, it could cap out somewhere around $150-175 mil or shoot all the way up to $300 mil+. Why such a huge disparity? Simple: Top Gun is a franchise that's been radio silent for 36 years and its cultural impact beyond a certain group of people that were at just the right age in 1986 to get swept up by the tale of Maverick, Iceman and Goose is unclear. Gauging how much enthusiasm there is for Maverick won't be in the cards until at least the end of the weekend when we see what the day-to-day holds look like.
Despite the uncertainty of how high it will be able to fly by the end of its run, all of the signs are certainly pointed towards a very positive outcome. The reviews have been stellar, there arguably hasn't been a movie since Dune that's been as aggressively sold as a must-see in IMAX or another PLF and it has the dual-pronged luxury of opening on a holiday weekend and having minimal direct competition for the next month as Jurassic World: Dominion is the only non-animated, surefire tentpole set to release in June. Really the only thing it has going against it is a potential lack of crossover appeal with 35-and-under audiences that might've never seen the original. If Top Gun displays an ample amount of juice this weekend and has an even semi-decent hold over the following weekend, it should be an absolute behemoth in our game that hangs around in the top 5 for the remainder of the season.
Price: $22 ULT/$24 BO
Predictions: $55-85 mil opening ($65-95 mil 4-day)/13-26 Top 5/8-18 PTA/$150-275 mil total BO/high 7 to low 8 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definitely
Friday will provide some much-needed relief to the American people. After nearly fourth consecutive months of unrelenting terror at multiplexes across the United States, The Bob's Burgers Movie (20th Century) trailer will mercifully be retired from circulation! Walking into a screening knowing that there will be a 0% chance of being greeted with the sights and sounds of obnoxious cartoon characters making what appear to be jokes will provide some much-needed piece of mind during these turbulent times.
Forecasting The Bob's Burgers Movie boils down to a single question: Does the show have a big enough fanbase for it to make money at the box office? While it has indeed been on the air for over a decade, it's not exactly The Simpsons. That long run has earned it some degree of cult following, but that almost seems like a rite of passage for Fox's Sunday Night animated lineup. The same thing could be said about shows like King of the Hill, Futurama and American Dad and none of those managed to set the zeitgeist ablaze during their runs.
The number of people that sit down to watch Bob's Burgers on a given Sunday night is probably matched or exceeded by those that promptly change the channel in confusion or frustration once an episode starts playing immediately after the NFL on Fox broadcast concludes. To put it much more succinctly (and more importantly, in a fashion that doesn't completely bewilder our European friends), Bob's Burgers seems like far too niche of a property to produce a movie that enjoys significant crossover success at the box office. The solid early reviews may tack a few more million onto its total, but a finish north of $30-35 mil would be pretty surprising.
Price: $8 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions: $6-10 mil opening ($8-12 mil 4-day)/2-6 Top 5/1-4 PTA/$18-35 mil total BO/mid to high 6 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No
Weekend Projections:
1.Top Gun: Maverick $66 mil ($76 mil 4-day)
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $19 mil ($23 mil 4-day)
3.Downton Abbey: A New Era $9 mil ($11 mil 4-day)
4.The Bob's Burgers Movie $7 mil ($9 mil 4-day)
5.The Bad Guys $4 mil ($5.5 mil 4-day)
PTA: Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Downton Abbey: A New Era, The Bob's Burgers Movie, The Bad Guys
Tune in next week when Screen previews a slate that solely consists of a few well-received indie releases and silently crosses his fingers that Crimes of the Future-which isn't in this game-can provide some early juice to his full year slate.
While the Downton Abbey sequel put up perfectly fine numbers ($16 mil) that were in line with the film's international openings, it also wasn't the catalyst for this key demographic many hoped it would be. Maybe, next month's Elvis can be the film that finally bring the 55+ crowd back in droves. (Note: While Top Gun certainly has appeal with that crowd, I'd argue that people in their mid 40's to early 50's are the primary target audience).
Fellow new opener Men fell more in line with its modest expectations as Alex Garland's latest polarizing creation scooped up $3.3 mil from 2,200 theaters. Given the extremely split reaction among the A24 faithful and complete lack of mainstream appeal, a huge second weekend drop could be on the dance card.
On the holdover front, Doctor Strange once again sat atop the box office. By grossing a slightly better than expected $32.3 mil, Multiverse of Madness returned to the MCU third weekend standard drop (48%) after a steeper than average fall (67%) in week two. The Sam Raimi-directed effort is sitting at just under $343 mil domestic through three weeks and should be able to hit the $400 million milestone sometime next week.
Wide Releases:
After no less than 66 delays over the past 4 years, Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) is finally hitting theaters. Tom Cruise's return to the role that kickstarted his ascent to superstardom sees him going from hotshot rookie Navy aviator to loose cannon Navy aviator instructor whose brought in by his old friend Iceman (Val Kilmer)-who is now an Admiral-to oversee a new team of hotshot young pilots that just happens to include the son (Miles Teller) of his late friend Goose. Cue up the melodrama folks!
In terms of established properties, there's no bigger wild card on the summer release calendar. While it has a clear floor that exceeds $100 mil, it could cap out somewhere around $150-175 mil or shoot all the way up to $300 mil+. Why such a huge disparity? Simple: Top Gun is a franchise that's been radio silent for 36 years and its cultural impact beyond a certain group of people that were at just the right age in 1986 to get swept up by the tale of Maverick, Iceman and Goose is unclear. Gauging how much enthusiasm there is for Maverick won't be in the cards until at least the end of the weekend when we see what the day-to-day holds look like.
Despite the uncertainty of how high it will be able to fly by the end of its run, all of the signs are certainly pointed towards a very positive outcome. The reviews have been stellar, there arguably hasn't been a movie since Dune that's been as aggressively sold as a must-see in IMAX or another PLF and it has the dual-pronged luxury of opening on a holiday weekend and having minimal direct competition for the next month as Jurassic World: Dominion is the only non-animated, surefire tentpole set to release in June. Really the only thing it has going against it is a potential lack of crossover appeal with 35-and-under audiences that might've never seen the original. If Top Gun displays an ample amount of juice this weekend and has an even semi-decent hold over the following weekend, it should be an absolute behemoth in our game that hangs around in the top 5 for the remainder of the season.
Price: $22 ULT/$24 BO
Predictions: $55-85 mil opening ($65-95 mil 4-day)/13-26 Top 5/8-18 PTA/$150-275 mil total BO/high 7 to low 8 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Definitely
Friday will provide some much-needed relief to the American people. After nearly fourth consecutive months of unrelenting terror at multiplexes across the United States, The Bob's Burgers Movie (20th Century) trailer will mercifully be retired from circulation! Walking into a screening knowing that there will be a 0% chance of being greeted with the sights and sounds of obnoxious cartoon characters making what appear to be jokes will provide some much-needed piece of mind during these turbulent times.
Forecasting The Bob's Burgers Movie boils down to a single question: Does the show have a big enough fanbase for it to make money at the box office? While it has indeed been on the air for over a decade, it's not exactly The Simpsons. That long run has earned it some degree of cult following, but that almost seems like a rite of passage for Fox's Sunday Night animated lineup. The same thing could be said about shows like King of the Hill, Futurama and American Dad and none of those managed to set the zeitgeist ablaze during their runs.
The number of people that sit down to watch Bob's Burgers on a given Sunday night is probably matched or exceeded by those that promptly change the channel in confusion or frustration once an episode starts playing immediately after the NFL on Fox broadcast concludes. To put it much more succinctly (and more importantly, in a fashion that doesn't completely bewilder our European friends), Bob's Burgers seems like far too niche of a property to produce a movie that enjoys significant crossover success at the box office. The solid early reviews may tack a few more million onto its total, but a finish north of $30-35 mil would be pretty surprising.
Price: $8 ULT/$9 BO
Predictions: $6-10 mil opening ($8-12 mil 4-day)/2-6 Top 5/1-4 PTA/$18-35 mil total BO/mid to high 6 IMDb
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No
Weekend Projections:
1.Top Gun: Maverick $66 mil ($76 mil 4-day)
2.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $19 mil ($23 mil 4-day)
3.Downton Abbey: A New Era $9 mil ($11 mil 4-day)
4.The Bob's Burgers Movie $7 mil ($9 mil 4-day)
5.The Bad Guys $4 mil ($5.5 mil 4-day)
PTA: Top Gun: Maverick, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Downton Abbey: A New Era, The Bob's Burgers Movie, The Bad Guys
Tune in next week when Screen previews a slate that solely consists of a few well-received indie releases and silently crosses his fingers that Crimes of the Future-which isn't in this game-can provide some early juice to his full year slate.