Screening The Releases - April 15th

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by Screen203 »

I apologize for getting this up so late. I've already written most of the column for the 29th, so that should be up sooner.

Last Week

Sonic 2 broke out solidly with a 72 m OW, which indicates positive things for the future of both the franchise and family films coming up. Ambulance, on the other hand, outright bombed with only 8 m, about on par with Wrath Of Man from nearly a year ago despite a much healthier marketplace and decent reviews. Morbius dropped a awful 74% to 10 m. In fourth, The Lost City recovered nicely from its mediocre hold last week, with a drop of 39% to 9 m - it could potentially still reach 100 m, which would be a great sign for comedies (which were struggling even before the pandemic). In fifth, The Batman held up solidly, with a drop of 41%, and a gross of 6 m. Outside the top five, Everything, Everywhere, All At Once debuted to a solid 6 m in its wide expansion, which is below what I had rather optimistically predicted, but is still a great number, and the film is very likely to have strong legs.

Wednesday The 13th -

Father Stu



I don't expect much of anything for this one. I'm confused as to what audience it's aiming at, and I don't see most mainstream moviegoers or most religious audiences interested in it. I have seen no marketing for it whatsoever, and I expect horrible reviews for it.

It will probably open to 5 m over the three-day weekend, and 8 m overall. It will probably frontload to a 12 m total.

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate. I expect zero PTA points, 1 Top 5 point, and a 5 on IMDb.

Friday The 15th -

Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore



Somehow, this will do okay. I really wish it wouldn't (the last two were awful, and - to say the least - I don't agree with some of the author's opinions), but buzz (despite mixed-negative reviews and controversy) seems to be building solidly. Obviously, there is still somewhat of a fanbase for the series, and this is advertising it's connections to the films that follow, in a move that seems desperate but will probably work for the first weekend.

I expect a 45 m OW, and a 100 m total.

It's an okay option in Box Office and Ultimate (if you didn't take Sonic), but not a great one. I expect about 7 PTA points, 10-12 Top 5 points, and a 7 on IMDb.

Limited Releases

Paris, 13th District



In some ways, this reminds me of The Worst Person... I don't expect a mirror of that film's success, though. The former had a lot more buzz, and the appeal of this seems a lot more limited. Additionally, I believe the release will be pretty wide, as last week's Cow (also from IFC) was.
While I do think there is some appeal (it is directed by Jacques Audiard, and the trailer is reminiscent of past hits like Frances Ha and the aforementioned Worst Person), I wouldn't reccomend it in Box Office or Ultimate.

I expect 0 PTA points, and around a 7 on IMDb.

Dual



To be honest, I'm not sure this will even report. But if it does, I don't expect much for it either. The director's previous film The Art Of Self Defense was critically acclaimed, but didn't do much box-office wise. I expect this to follow, despite an original premise and some buzz from Sundance, mostly because marketing has been non-existent (I wasn't even aware this was already opening until last week).

Don't take this in Box Office or Ultimate.

I expect 0 PTA and a 7 on IMDb.

Top 5

Fantastic Beasts... - 45 m
Sonic The Hedgehog 2 - 32 m
The Lost City - 7 m
Everything, Everywhere, All At Once - 5 m
Father Stu - 5 m

PTA

Fantastic Beasts...
Sonic The Hedgehog 2
The Lost City
Father Stu
Everything, Everywhere, All At Once

Join us next week for transformers's take on The Bad Guys, The Northman, The Unbearable Weight...,, and limited releases Petit Maman, The Duke, and Hit The Road.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by numbersix »

I think we're underestimating the lasting power of Potter. Yes, amongst certain groups Rowling's name has been tarnished, but do you think kids under 13 have any idea or awareness of this? And with Dumbledore plastered across this one, you may even see a box office bump. I'm thinking amid 50s opening and a $120m cume.

As for PTA, IFC are releasing Paris 13th District, so presumably they'll be debuting it in a handful of theatres only. Could be good for a few PTA points.

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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

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I saw the trailer for Paris, 13th District before Cow and it looks like a bad mumblecore film with subtitles. Reviews might be good but it doesn't seem to stand out from the countless other bored hipster movies that exist.

And Harry Potter/Wizarding World/whatever the hell Warner Bros. wants to call it has been trending downward. And for an installment that needed good reviews to bring them back, it's not getting them. It could end up being the Harry Potter franchise's Dark Phoenix: an entry rife with production problems arriving to muted buzz that likely ends the franchise altogether. Warner Bros. made a great mistake trying to get us to care about Newt Scamander and a bunch of other characters with none of the appeal or hype of The Boy Who Lived.
Last edited by Buscemi2 on April 14th, 2022, 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by transformers2 »

Even if Rowling hadn't spent the past few years publicly spewing transphobic garbage, Secrets of Dumbledore would be facing an uphill climb at the box office. Crimes of Grindelwald barely got past $150 mil and the reception was pretty poor among Potter fans, so they may feel inclined to wait until it hits HBO Max in late May/early June to watch it. It has a pretty good shot of clearing its $40 mil tracking number for this weekend, but anything above $125 mil for its final tally feels unattainable.

As for Dual, it should report. It's a theatrical exclusive release and RLJE tends to only withhold the results of some of their day-and-date titles. Theater count appears to somewhere in the double, if not triple digits though, so it has next to zero upside in our game.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by Buscemi2 »

40/125 is too kind to Fantastic Beasts. I could see it dropping Morbius did.

And when's the last time RLJE reported box office? They are usually more into post-theatrical markets.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by numbersix »

You might be right about Fantastic Busts 3

Just checked the UK figures and made way less than the last one in its opening weekend.

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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by transformers2 »

Buscemi2 wrote:
April 14th, 2022, 2:47 pm
40/125 is too kind to Fantastic Beasts. I could see it dropping Morbius did.

And when's the last time RLJE reported box office? They are usually more into post-theatrical markets.
The Water Man appears to be the last time RLJE reported box office, but they also haven't had a strictly theatrical release in a while. It really won't matter much either way because I don't think any of us picked it in the game.

As down as I am on Fantastic Beasts, a Morbius-esque drop would still be shocking. Fanboy/girl effect and the volatility that comes with it is still there, but the vitriol level just isn't comparable.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by transformers2 »

Father Stu did $1.5 mil on its opening day yesterday and put up 5 stars on PostTrak, so some of the Jesus people might show up for this one after all.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Isn't that more than what Joe Bell, Wahlberg's last inspirational-bent film, did in its whole run?
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

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Indeed it is.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by transformers2 »

Early Weekend Estimates per Deadline
Friday:
Fantastic Beasts 3 $20 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $10.9 mil
The Lost City $2.1 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $1.9 mil
Father Stu $1.6 mil
Morbius $1.6 mil
Ambulance $1.3 mil
The Batman $1.3 mil
K.F.G. Chapter 2 (Hindi dub) $522k
K.F.G. Chapter 2 $495k

3-Day:
Fantastic Beasts 3 $44.5 mil
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $26.5 mil
The Lost City $5.9 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $5.1 mil
Father Stu $4.7 mil
Morbius $4.2 mil
Ambulance $3.7 mil
The Batman $3.5 mil
K.F.G. Chapter 2 (Hindi dub) $1.5 mil
K.F.G. Chapter 2 $1.4 mil

Reporting separate grosses for the same movie is an absurd move
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Box Office Mojo is listing K.G.F.'s grosses as one. That might have been a distributor thing to report it as two.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 15th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
1.Fantastic Beasts 3 $42.2 mil
2.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $29.3 mil
3.The Lost City $6.22 mil
4.Everything Everywhere All at Once $6.18 mil
5.Father Stu $5.4 mil ($7.8 mil 5-day)
6.Morbius $4.7 mil
7.Ambulance $4 mil
8.The Batman $3.8 mil
9.K.F.G.: Chapter 2 $2.9 mil
10.Uncharted $1.2 mil

PTA:
1.Fantastic Beasts 3 $10,016
2.Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $6,882
3.Everything Everywhere All at Once $2,786
4.Father Stu $1,997
5.The Lost City $1,814

-Dual $753 (157 theaters)
-Paris, 13th District $414 (67 theaters)
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