Screening The Releases - April 8th

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Screen203
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Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by Screen203 »

Last Week

The maligned comic-book adaptation Morbius opened with a barely passable 39 m, but it was front-loaded and legs will probably be horrible. In second place, The Lost City fell a harsher than expected 51% to about 15 m. The Batman was in third with around 10.5 m, Uncharted took fourth with about 3.5 m, and Jujustu Kaisen 0 was in fifth with 2 m. In the arthouse scene, Everything, Everywhere, All At Once continued to impress with a great average of nearly 27 k per theater. That was pretty much the only good news, as The Contractor, You Won't Be Alone, and The Rose Maker all underwhelmed.

This Week

Sonic The Hedgehog 2



The film adaptations of the classic video game Sonic The Hedgehog have had a rocky history. The game series it's based on (intended as an edgier counterpart to fellow classic Super Mario Brothers), was a massive sucess that still lives on to this day, spreading to other ventures such as comic books and Saturday-morning cartoons. The movies however, got started on wrong footing when the first trailer for the first movie was met with a very negative reception (at least on the internet), with criticism levied towards the titular character's design. In response to this, Paramount did something rarely seen (at the time) - pushed back the release date from November to April to change Sonic's design. The finished film got suprisingly solid reviews, in particular for Jim Carrey's performance as Sonic's nemesis, Dr. Eggman. Mirroring it's suprisingly solid reviews, it became a big hit at the box office, opening with 58 m (the highest unadjusted opening for a video game adaptation - ever), and, even though it's legs were cut off by the pandemic, it finished with a strong 146 m, above The Lego Movie 2 and on par with How To Train Your Dragon 3 and Pokemon: Detective Pikachu in terms of grosses. Normally, sequels to family films tend to decrease, with the first two films I mentioned above being examples of that. However, I think Sonic 2 could (emphasis on could) be a rare exception to the rule. First, considering the late legs of the first were cut off, the sequel has unprecedented room for improvement. Second, the additions of fan-favorite characters Tails and Knuckles gives fans an added incentive to see this one. The largest factor, however, is the lack of family fare over the last four months. Since Turning Red bypassed theaters, the market has been left empty for No Way Home and Sing 2 to clean up. Families go to the movies too, and they haven't had any option at all since then.

I think this will break out, with a 70 m OW, and a 160 m total (I think it will be a bit more front-loaded than most family films, with the large built-in fanbase, and The Bad Guys opening in two weeks).

It is one of the better options in Box Office - arguably the best option in April (although Doctor Strange or Jurassic World are the best choices to lead a lineup). In Ultimate, I expect it to do decently in IMDb (somewhere in-bewteen 6 and 7), around 18 Top 5 points, and 7 or 8 PTA points. I would say it's a decent choice there too, but I'm not sure I would reccomend it over the summer blockbusters.

Ambulance



My initial opinions on this movie's potential performance were very negative - I was expecting a total around 10-15 m. Though it obviously has a big budget (actually it "only" cost 40 m, but it looks a lot more expensive), I couldn't see what made it different than your average Open Road or Lionsgate action film, besides the absence of Liam Neeson. In the months since its first trailer release in October, I feel like Universal has made smart decisions that have increased its potential: first, moving the date back to allow more time for advertising - Batman is below 10 m at this point, and The Outfit was a smaller release that (unfortunately) didn't make much of a splash. Second, they have really ramped up the marketing, playing the trailer in front of big releases like No Way Home and having ample commercials since Febuary. I'm starting to think this could actually be a minor hit. While Gyllenhaal hasn't had a hit where he was the lead since Southpaw almost 7 years ago (and I think the rise-fall-redemption boxing story helped with that, as well as Rachel McAdams and the heavily publicized Eminem soundtrack), this sees him in his early-to-mid-2010s gritty action-thriller wheelhouse (in particular, this reminds me of his film End Of Watch). In addition, the movie looks almost highbrow, in a way (at least by Michael Bay standards) - while it doesn't exactly look like an awards contender, it looks like one of the other famous action/thriller director named Michael's films. On the other hand, I feel like Ambulance is a lot less escapist than recent action successes like Nobody or the John Wick series, and while the trailer almost reveals too much, the TV spots have had an issue with explaining the premise. Wrath Of Man - probably the best comparison - had a more clear revenge-themed premise that was spelled out in all the marketing.
That being said, buzz has grown solidly, and reviews are suprisingly decent considering the director.

I predict it to make around 14m on OW, and 38 m in total.

It's one of the better options of April in both Box Office and Ultimate, if you aren't taking the big 3 films. In Ultimate, I expect it to be in the 6-7 range on IMDb, around 4 or 5 Top 5 points, and 2 or 3 PTA points.

Limited Releases

Cow



I don't expect huge things for this. While the film has been acclaimed, it seems like a very difficult sell, and I'm not completely sure of it's release plan. I could see it doing well (the film has been compared to the hit Food, Inc), but I really don't know.

What I can say is that it is one of the better choices in Ultimate for April if you already have Petit Maman on your slate, as I'm not sure how wide Dual is going, and IFC seems to be pushing Paris, 13th District more. Don't take it in Box Office. It will probably receive something in the 7 range on IMDb, and 5-7 Top 5 points.

Top 5

Sonic The Hedgehog 2 - 70 m
Ambulance - 14 m
Everything, Everywhere, All At Once - 10 m (if this was in the game for April-June, I would reccomend it more than anything else this week)
Morbius - 9m
The Lost City - 9 m

PTA

Cow
Sonic The Hedgehog 2
Everything, Everywhere, All At Once
Ambulance
The Batman

Join me next week for looking over Father Stu on the 13th, followed by Fantastic Beasts..., Paris, 13th District, and Dual on the 15th.
It's not destroying. It's making something new.

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transformers2
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by transformers2 »

Ambulance is a real wild card. The marketing has been really aggressive, its placement in the heist genre should give it a floor of $10 mi or so and the reviews/WOM from overseas have been fine, but it still feels like the kind of mid-budgeted vehicle that gets largely ignored these days. Your prediction of $14 mil feels about right.

As terrific as the buzz has been, $10 mil doesn't seem overly realistic for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It's hard to tell how much the WOM has been traveling outside of the film nerd circles we travel in, and the reported theater count is only around 1,200-which is about 1,500 less than X got last month before it opened to $4.2 mil. Even with all the positive momentum that Everything Everywhere All at Once has built from its platform release, an opening a bit north of X's seems like the best-case scenario.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by Buscemi2 »

Ambulance's early reviews have been terrible. Sure, not Morbius/The Bubble terrible but not good. Plus, did this really need to be two hours and fifteen minutes? It might open okay but it's more Pain and Gain/Six Underground (yes, I know the latter was Netflix but still) than Transformers: The Last Knight.

And this should be the weekend Everything Everywhere All at Once tails off. It might be the buzz of the film community right now but that doesn't translate often to box office (otherwise, both Andersons and Pablo Larrain would have bigger hits than a run-of-the-mill hack like Daniel Espinosa). If the general public wants a multiverse, they'll wait four weeks. I'm going to say $5-6 million for the weekend before large drops.
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Screen203
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by Screen203 »

Knowing the theater count, I would have revised the Everything, Everywhere number to 7 m (Ex Machina, adjusted for inflation, did about 5.8 m on its wide opening, and A24 has been following the same pattern. This seems to have more buzz than that did at the time, and a nearly 6 k average from a 28 - not 26 as I had originally seen - k dosen't seem that hard an ask).

I imagine legs will be good for the most part though until Doctor Strange... opens. Ex Machina faced Avengers: Age Of Ultron on its second weekend, and somewhat recovered after taking a harsh drop that weekend until Mad Max: Fury Road opened. While The Northman and The Unbearable Weight... appeal to some of the same audience seeing Everything, Everywhere, All At Once, it will be a smaller crowd in comparison to facing a almost 200 m opener the second week of wide release, then having a 45 m opener that went on to win 6 Oscars and appeals to the exact same audience two weeks after.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by transformers2 »

Weekend Actuals:
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $72.1 mil (7th best April opening ever and 5th best opening since 2020)
Morbius $10.2 mil (74% drop!!!)
The Lost City $9 mil
Ambulance $8.7 mil
The Batman $6.5 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $6 mil
Uncharted $2.6 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home $626k
Dog $514k
Sing 2 $225k

PTA:
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 $17,030
Everything Everywhere All at Once $4,847
Mothering Sunday $4,622
Ambulance $2,549
Morbius $2,390

-Cow $203

Exit Polls:
Sonic the Hedgehog 2: A CinemaScore, 87% positive/74% definite recommend PostTrak
Ambulance: A- CinemaScore, 77% positive/61% definite recommend PostTrak
Everything Everywhere All at Once: 89% positive/77% definite recommend PostTrak

Excellent start for Sonic, hilariously bad drop for Morbius, very solid wide expansion for Everything Everywhere All at Once and a relatively quiet opening for Ambulance.
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Re: Screening The Releases - April 8th

Post by Buscemi2 »

I'm amazed by how well Sonic did. I was convinced only furries and incels actually liked Sonic past the Genesis era.
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