SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 4/01

[numbersix]

Aaaaaaannnnnnnnnddd we’re back.

It only took 2 years.

Yes, folks, welcome to the return of the most important movie analysis for 5 people in the world, it’s a breakdown of the value of this weekend’s films. Now, as you all know, COVID is still rampant, acting in very dull ways, making the flu seem like Ebola. But it’s still there, working its way through all of us (twice for this fellow here), becoming part of our life forever. As we learn to accept it, we’re slowly tip-toeing back to the theatres. Over this part of the pond, we’re pretty much back to normal as we flock to the big screens, forgetting we’re not at home as we talk loudly during each screening. In the US of A, normalcy is only just hitting us, with April seeing a wide release every weekend. And so we start with this foolish day.




Morbius (Sony) is the big blockbuster of the weekend, although I suspect it will be more bust than… er… block. This comic book adaptation follows Dr Morbius, whose rare condition gives him vampiric powers. On the plus side, it’s a MCU film, although with little seeming crossover beyond rumours that Michael Keaton may appear as the villain he played in Spider-Man: Homecoming. But, this film has been pushed back over and over, and each time its buzz seems to lessen. The massive earnings of Spider-Men (over $1.8 billion worldwide) and the dark success of The Batman (nearly $700m) may pique some curiosity, but this is certainly a lesser MCU. I expect an opening in the low-mid 30s and a moderate hold, earning 70-80m, with 12 T5, 4-6 PTA points, and a low 6 IMDB score. Not quite worth your limited dollars.


Nothing else braves the wide arena this weekend, but there are a few limited releases




[b]The Contractor (STX) [/b] is normally the kind of mid-level actioner that opens wide and performs moderately. This one even has a decent cast, featuring Chris Pine, Ben Foster, Gillian Jacobs, and Kiefer Sutherland. But, as with many films of late, this isn’t a theatre exclusive, and instead opens simultaneously on Paramount+. So, what could have been a $20-30m earner will probably fail to earn $1m, and get you anything in the game besides a very average IMDB score.




Barbarians (IFC) is a low-budget horror about a dinner party that descends into darkness. It played in the B-list festival circuit, and is coming out via IFC’s Midnight strand, so expect it to barely earn a few bucks, if it even reports. Avoid.




The Rose Maker (Music Box) is a French comedy about a failing rose grower. It’s got that nice, gentle appeal for an older audience. But it lacks festival prestige or rave reviews, or even much financial success in its home territory. There’s not a lot going for this, beyond a PTA point or two, so it’s probably not worth your time.




Finally, You Won’t Be Alone (Focus) is an arthouse horror about a witch’s journey through time. Directed by first-timer Goran Stolevski, this Macedonia film stars Noomi Rapace and while this all sounds very niche, the advance reviews out of its premiere in Sundance have been spectacular, and this could play very well to those who loved A24’s horror films. If Focus don’t open too wide (and currently it seems like a dozen theatres), expect a few PTA points this week and next, with a strong IMDB score and 1-3m from the box office.


Predictions for the weekend

1. Morbius - $34m
2. The Lost City - $14m
3. The Batman - $10m
4. RRR - $4m
5. Uncharted - $2.5m


PTA: Everything Everywhere, You Won’t Be Alone, Morbius, The Lost City, The Rose Maker

And that’s it. Let’s see how we all do as we dust off the mold from our box-office bones. Next week sees the release of Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Michael Bay thriller Ambulance, and a documentary about a Cow. Screen will tell you all about it.

[Buscemi2]

At this point, I wouldn't bet against Marvel, even if it's a lesser character played by a recent Razzie winner. To be honest, I think Morbius turns out to be the biggest film of the month. Sonic is a critical bust, Fantastic Beasts won't be helped by Rowling's recent connection with Putin, and everything else is going to be a minor hit or minor flop.

Otherwise, don't expect much until Doctor Strange and the More Plots Than a Land Baron.

[numbersix]

I hear ya, but Eternals was the first chink in the armour. And I can't see this doing as well.

[Buscemi2]

Eternals was still the sixth biggest film of the year domestically, even with the underwhelming critical and audience reception. I expect audiences to see the Marvel name and go anyway.

[transformers2]

While there's a path to Morbius outgrossing Sonic and Fantastic Beasts (I think that it will outgross the latter), it's likely going to face an uphill climb to do so. The character of Michael Morbius doesn't have the same recognition/reverence behind him that allowed Venom to overcome its bad pre-release buzz/poor reviews (I'm operating under the assumption that Morbius is going to get fucking torched by critics) and unlike Eternals, it's launching a completely new character without the built-in fanbase of the proper MCU. I'm a little bit higher on it than six is overall (I'll go with an opening around $40-42 mil), but I also think it could have difficulty hitting $100 mil if the audience reception is mixed or worse.

[Buscemi2]

Eternals didn't really have that built-in audience either. Yes, it was connected with the MCU but Marvel really forced you to like a bunch of characters and be interested in a universe you knew almost nothing about without organically building that world. And though there were some incentives to get you to see it, such as feature the long-promised inclusion of The Mandarin, not many knew who Shang-Chi was but that film made millions in the traditionally dead Labor Day weekend.

You don't need to hype up a character to get audiences interested. It's all about brand loyalty. Marvel could create a hero whose superpower is turning into a giant bubble or turning broccoli into cake and people would still watch it.

[Screen203]

I expect more for Morbius (about 50 m), though legs will be atrocious (lack of reviews isn't a great sign, and vampire movies tend to be front-loaded).

I also think Everything, Everywhere, All At Once has a (very small) chance to crack the top 5, depending on how many theaters it gets this weekend (Ex Machina- the most similar A24 release to it in terms of release date and genre - didn't even make a million on it's second weekend, but it started in less than half of Everything, Everywhere, All At Once's theaters, and faced stronger competition with Furious 7. Everything, Everywhere, All At Once has 7 years of inflation on its side as well - though You Won't Be Alone will take some of its audience.). It depends on how much RRR collapses, and how well Uncharted holds.

As for the rest of April, I doubt anything beats Sonic. The first was (seemingly) well recieved by audiences, there has been next-to-nothing for families (although I saw a decent amount of families at The Lost City), and the addition of new characters Tails and Knuckles will help draw in fans of the games.

[transformers2]

Eternals didn't really have that built-in audience either. Yes, it was connected with the MCU but Marvel really forced you to like a bunch of characters and be interested in a universe you knew almost nothing about without organically building that world. And though there were some incentives to get you to see it, such as feature the long-promised inclusion of The Mandarin, not many knew who Shang-Chi was but that film made millions in the traditionally dead Labor Day weekend.

You don't need to hype up a character to get audiences interested. It's all about brand loyalty. Marvel could create a hero whose superpower is turning into a giant bubble or turning broccoli into cake and people would still watch it.

You're right. Brand loyalty is the name of the game. However, there are limits to that as the complete failures of Dark Phoenix and Fantastic Four have proven and those were characters that were much more well-known by the general public than Morbius, Shang-Chi or Eternals. If Morbius isn't well-received by critics or audiences this weekend, it could very well become the latest project to buck the trend of Marvel-branded films being guaranteed successes.

[numbersix]

Eternals was still the sixth biggest film of the year domestically, even with the underwhelming critical and audience reception. I expect audiences to see the Marvel name and go anyway.

6th because cinemas weren't open most of the year. On a purely financial basis it looks like it lost money, its TV/VOD numbers probably not enough to compensate for the marketing and distribution costs. Plus, it opened in the 70s and crash out at 164. It's a sign that the MCU can't guarantee a hit, and that audiences won't accept anything they're given.

Actually, a better comparison is Venom, another Sony MCU release. But Hardy is more popular than Leto, and Venom is way more recognised than Morbius.

[numbersix]

And.... Marvel might want to distance themselves from Morbius. It is being slated by the critics, making The Eternals looks like The Godfather.

[Screen203]

With the horrible reviews, I don't see Morbius at 50 m now - I would be suprised if it even hit 40 m.

Additionally, I know I've mentioned this in the column schedule thread, but is there anyone else interested in writing columns in the future? I plan on putting May dates up on Sunday.

[numbersix]

Might revise my prediction for morbius slightly higher having seen those midnight figures. Guess the spidey effect works

[Screen203]

Morbius opened to about 17 m, and is expected to go to high 30s to low 40s.

The Lost City is having a harsher drop than expected, going down 50+% to about 14 m.

Everything, Everywhere, All At Once is breaking into the top ten with a gross over 1 m.

[transformers2]

Early Estimates via Deadline
Friday:
Morbius $17.2 mil
The Lost City $4.3 mil
The Batman $3.1 mil
Uncharted $1 mil
Jujustu Kaisen $564k
RRR $442k
Spider-Man: No Way Home $370k
Dog $360k
Everything Everywhere All at Once $355k
X $332k
The Contractor $195k
Sing 2 $180k

-You Won't Be Alone $40k


Weekend:
Morbius $40.8 mil
The Lost City $14.6 mil
The Batman $11.2 mil
Uncharted $3.7 mil
Jujustu Kaisen 0 $2 mil
RRR $1.5 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home $1.4 mil
Dog $1.3 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $1.04 mil
X $1 mil
Sing 2 $640k
The Contractor $530k

-You Won't Be Alone $120k

Exits for Morbius were C+ on Cinemascore and 62% positive/47% definite recommend on PostTrak. That Cinemascore is the worst the superhero genre has seen since the 2015 Fantastic Four, which received a C-.

[Screen203]

Early Estimates via Deadline
Friday:
Morbius $17.2 mil
The Lost City $4.3 mil
The Batman $3.1 mil
Uncharted $1 mil
Jujustu Kaisen $564k
RRR $442k
Spider-Man: No Way Home $370k
Dog $360k
Everything Everywhere All at Once $355k
X $332k
The Contractor $195k
Sing 2 $180k

-You Won't Be Alone $40k


Weekend:
Morbius $40.8 mil
The Lost City $14.6 mil
The Batman $11.2 mil
Uncharted $3.7 mil
Jujustu Kaisen 0 $2 mil
RRR $1.5 mil
Spider-Man: No Way Home $1.4 mil
Dog $1.3 mil
Everything Everywhere All at Once $1.04 mil
X $1 mil
Sing 2 $640k
The Contractor $530k

-You Won't Be Alone $120k

Exits for Morbius were C+ on Cinemascore and 62% positive/47% definite recommend on PostTrak. That Cinemascore is the worst the superhero genre has seen since the 2015 Fantastic Four, which received a C-.

That's awful for You Won't Be Alone. It would be good if it was in 5 or so theaters, but not in 100+ theaters.

Not a great score for Morbius, either. Has anyone seen it?