Down the Rabbit Hole with Buscemi: March 13th-15th
Posted: March 9th, 2020, 7:47 pm
2020 hasn’t been the most intriguing of film years so far. Between the large number of delayed films and non-starters, the only breakouts so far seem to have been 90’s nostalgia pieces Bad Boys for Life and Sonic the Hedgehog. This week features another 90’s nostalgia flick, along with a sequel few outside of the Evangelical community demanded and one (or was it two?) title delayed from last year. Also to be covered: a single limited release.
Last Week
Onward took the box office weekend and second in PTA with what’s felt to be a disappointing $39.1 million take. Cinemascore was an A- so maybe it holds in future weeks. The Invisible Man held steady in second with $15.1 million (46% drop) and got another PTA point. Third place was the Ben Affleck basketball drama The Way Back with an $8.2 million weekend while fourth and fifth were kid-friendly holdovers Sonic the Hedgehog and The Call of the Wild. Emma expanded to a sixth place finish with $4.8 million but a B Cinemascore doesn’t suggest strong holds.
In the limited scene, Kelly Reichardt’s frontier drama First Cow was the top prize with $24,014 per theatre. It looks to expand slowly throughout March and April, so expect more points. The Whistlers and Swallow followed Onward for the third and fourth spots, respectively.
This Week
Warning: article may getting politically charged. Hold onto something.
“Believe” in Angels
What will possibly the biggest performer this weekend is I Still Believe (Lionsgate), a loosely-connected sequel to 2018’s biggest sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine. But rather than being a film based on a song that was apparently bigger than we thought, this is now a straight biopic of musician Jeremy Camp. Camp, who performed the song where the title comes from, is a Christian musician whose wife battled ovarian cancer during the early years of their marriage. The film focuses on how they used their faith to fight that cancer like it was Thanos. Much moralizing ensues in this film which stars KJ Apa, Britt Robertson, Shania Twain, and Gary Sinise.
The Erwin Brothers have made a cottage industry of being The Kendrick Brothers without the backing of a church. Ever since their 2011 anti-choice film October Baby was released in a test run in their native Tennessee, the team has gone from working with Sony’s faith-based label with their Bridesmaids ripoff Mom’s Night Out to Pure Flix for their Remember the Titans ripoff Woodlawn to forging a relationship with Lionsgate with the somehow popular I Can Only Imagine. Lionsgate seems to see big things with this one as the studio has now fast-tracked American Underdog, a biopic on NFL great Kurt Warner, for a Christmas release. This will also be getting IMAX screens and is a strong bet for an A+ Cinemascore. But will it be enough?
Box Office Potential: I Can Only Imagine made a stellar $83 million domestic two years back. A gross at half that number would be solid for most studios but possibly a disappointment to Lionsgate. With its 3,100 theatre count, I expect a $15 million opening and a $45 million finish.
“Blood” from a Turnip
Next on the docket is Bloodshot (Sony/Columbia), a film that was hoped to be the start of a planned Valiant Cinematic Universe, an indie label that thrived during the 1990’s comic book boom only to die off due to financial troubles and an alliance between them and Image Comics going south. As the 90’s are the hot thing right now, Sony felt that doing a shared universe with the Valiant characters would go well with their Jumanji and Bad Boys successes. But after seeing an early cut of this one, Sony chose to put all their other Valiant titles into turnaround, making what was intended to be their MCU into Dark Universe.
Vin Diesel stars as the titular character, a marine who is turned into a killing machine by scientists after his family is assassinated. When he is reborn, he does not remember his past but quickly regains those memories and soon comes to realize that what’s on the surface is not exactly how it looks. Sounds a lot like RoboCop. Eiza Gonzalez, Sam Heughan, Toby Kebbell, and Guy Pearce co-star.
Sony, not being happy with the film, is more or less choosing to dump it with Diesel’s name being the main selling point. But Vin’s track record when not playing Dominic Toretto is mostly mediocre. Also, the film is just visually unappealing with its overly red color scheme. A good action director and an experienced writer might have made this seem interesting. Instead, we got a first-time director and the guy who did the Fantasy Island movie as co-writer.
Box Office Potential: I’m sure that if anyone wants their usual fill of Diesel fuel, they’ll just wait for F9. $10 million opening, $21 million finish.
Dog Will “Hunt”
Last is a film that I didn’t think I’d have to cover but here we go. The Hunt (Universal) was originally pulled from its September release due to a series of mass shootings. But while that hasn’t entirely stopped other films in the past, such as 2018’s remake of Death Wish, the plot thickened when the script was leaked and the film revealed itself to be a violent thriller where alt-right figures are being hunted by rich liberals and the former begin to fight back, much like in The Most Dangerous Game. Oddly, the audience that would have embraced such a film condemned it without having seen a frame of film (Universal and Blumhouse are even using this as the main selling point, despite pre-release screenings to said figures).
Now opening in a surprising 3,000 theatres, this film starring Betty Gilpin and Hilary Swank and directed by Homestar Runner co-creator Craig Zobel, has been running late in awareness but Universal seems to believe in it more than the other film they basically muted its ad campaign after the controversy, Queen & Slim. But for every Joker, you have a film like No Safe Spaces, which barely cleared a million while aiming itself towards a similar audience. The Hunt does not have a big star or a hook to sell itself and more or less feels like an afterthought designed to go towards an angry group of people who are more likely going to stay home and watch Ben Shapiro or Steven Crowder or whoever’s popular on YouTube that preaches to the choir. Maybe a few fans of screenwriter Damon Lindelof’s The Leftovers or Watchmen may show, but I’m not sure why anyone would want to see a Hollywoodized version of an Infowars video.
Box Office Potential: the biggest comparable would seem to be 2014’s The Interview, which brought in conspiracy theorists and modern-day patriots galore on opening night before disappearing into the Netflix streams. But that was in much fewer theatres and only played at night in most of them. With limited marketing and not much buzz, I’d expect a $7 million opening and a $15 million finish.
Arthouse Class 101
This week, we take to the class with one title.
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (Focus) – the abortion debate has been heating up in recent years, especially with the release of last year’s Evangelical exploitation film Unplanned, which was a minor enough success that states made draconian laws against women’s rights because political figures took the film’s debunked claims hook, line and sinker. This film could be seen as a bit of an answer to that film but has stood on its own merits, managing excellent reviews (92 on Metacritic) and a Silver Bear win at Berlin. The premise focuses on a girl in the wilds of rural Pennsylvania, where everyone has a gun and you aren’t sure if it’s Kentucky or Alabama, who with limited options to terminate her unwanted pregnancy, heads off to New York with her cousin to make the abortion happen. In the process, the two learn about themselves and come of age.
So, this should be a big film in New York and Los Angeles. However, expansion will be a problem. A lot of theatres in middle America aren’t going to book it due to the themes. And Focus, realizing that they have a hot-button film their hands, seems to have given it a low-key promotional campaign to avoid controversy much like their parent company’s opener has. So much like the girls having to go to another state to fix their problem, will interested audiences go the few hours or so to their nearest to see it? It’s going to take a lot of box office and stealthily avoiding the angry anti-choice people for it to happen.
12-14 PTA points and $2-3 million in box office.
Top 5: Onward, I Still Believe, Bloodshot, The Invisible Man, The Hunt
PTA: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, Onward, I Still Believe, wild card from an Uno deck
Next week, Six will handle a single wide release, A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount), and two limiteds, The Climb (Sony Pictures Classics), and The Truth (IFC).
Last Week
Onward took the box office weekend and second in PTA with what’s felt to be a disappointing $39.1 million take. Cinemascore was an A- so maybe it holds in future weeks. The Invisible Man held steady in second with $15.1 million (46% drop) and got another PTA point. Third place was the Ben Affleck basketball drama The Way Back with an $8.2 million weekend while fourth and fifth were kid-friendly holdovers Sonic the Hedgehog and The Call of the Wild. Emma expanded to a sixth place finish with $4.8 million but a B Cinemascore doesn’t suggest strong holds.
In the limited scene, Kelly Reichardt’s frontier drama First Cow was the top prize with $24,014 per theatre. It looks to expand slowly throughout March and April, so expect more points. The Whistlers and Swallow followed Onward for the third and fourth spots, respectively.
This Week
Warning: article may getting politically charged. Hold onto something.
“Believe” in Angels
What will possibly the biggest performer this weekend is I Still Believe (Lionsgate), a loosely-connected sequel to 2018’s biggest sleeper hit I Can Only Imagine. But rather than being a film based on a song that was apparently bigger than we thought, this is now a straight biopic of musician Jeremy Camp. Camp, who performed the song where the title comes from, is a Christian musician whose wife battled ovarian cancer during the early years of their marriage. The film focuses on how they used their faith to fight that cancer like it was Thanos. Much moralizing ensues in this film which stars KJ Apa, Britt Robertson, Shania Twain, and Gary Sinise.
The Erwin Brothers have made a cottage industry of being The Kendrick Brothers without the backing of a church. Ever since their 2011 anti-choice film October Baby was released in a test run in their native Tennessee, the team has gone from working with Sony’s faith-based label with their Bridesmaids ripoff Mom’s Night Out to Pure Flix for their Remember the Titans ripoff Woodlawn to forging a relationship with Lionsgate with the somehow popular I Can Only Imagine. Lionsgate seems to see big things with this one as the studio has now fast-tracked American Underdog, a biopic on NFL great Kurt Warner, for a Christmas release. This will also be getting IMAX screens and is a strong bet for an A+ Cinemascore. But will it be enough?
Box Office Potential: I Can Only Imagine made a stellar $83 million domestic two years back. A gross at half that number would be solid for most studios but possibly a disappointment to Lionsgate. With its 3,100 theatre count, I expect a $15 million opening and a $45 million finish.
“Blood” from a Turnip
Next on the docket is Bloodshot (Sony/Columbia), a film that was hoped to be the start of a planned Valiant Cinematic Universe, an indie label that thrived during the 1990’s comic book boom only to die off due to financial troubles and an alliance between them and Image Comics going south. As the 90’s are the hot thing right now, Sony felt that doing a shared universe with the Valiant characters would go well with their Jumanji and Bad Boys successes. But after seeing an early cut of this one, Sony chose to put all their other Valiant titles into turnaround, making what was intended to be their MCU into Dark Universe.
Vin Diesel stars as the titular character, a marine who is turned into a killing machine by scientists after his family is assassinated. When he is reborn, he does not remember his past but quickly regains those memories and soon comes to realize that what’s on the surface is not exactly how it looks. Sounds a lot like RoboCop. Eiza Gonzalez, Sam Heughan, Toby Kebbell, and Guy Pearce co-star.
Sony, not being happy with the film, is more or less choosing to dump it with Diesel’s name being the main selling point. But Vin’s track record when not playing Dominic Toretto is mostly mediocre. Also, the film is just visually unappealing with its overly red color scheme. A good action director and an experienced writer might have made this seem interesting. Instead, we got a first-time director and the guy who did the Fantasy Island movie as co-writer.
Box Office Potential: I’m sure that if anyone wants their usual fill of Diesel fuel, they’ll just wait for F9. $10 million opening, $21 million finish.
Dog Will “Hunt”
Last is a film that I didn’t think I’d have to cover but here we go. The Hunt (Universal) was originally pulled from its September release due to a series of mass shootings. But while that hasn’t entirely stopped other films in the past, such as 2018’s remake of Death Wish, the plot thickened when the script was leaked and the film revealed itself to be a violent thriller where alt-right figures are being hunted by rich liberals and the former begin to fight back, much like in The Most Dangerous Game. Oddly, the audience that would have embraced such a film condemned it without having seen a frame of film (Universal and Blumhouse are even using this as the main selling point, despite pre-release screenings to said figures).
Now opening in a surprising 3,000 theatres, this film starring Betty Gilpin and Hilary Swank and directed by Homestar Runner co-creator Craig Zobel, has been running late in awareness but Universal seems to believe in it more than the other film they basically muted its ad campaign after the controversy, Queen & Slim. But for every Joker, you have a film like No Safe Spaces, which barely cleared a million while aiming itself towards a similar audience. The Hunt does not have a big star or a hook to sell itself and more or less feels like an afterthought designed to go towards an angry group of people who are more likely going to stay home and watch Ben Shapiro or Steven Crowder or whoever’s popular on YouTube that preaches to the choir. Maybe a few fans of screenwriter Damon Lindelof’s The Leftovers or Watchmen may show, but I’m not sure why anyone would want to see a Hollywoodized version of an Infowars video.
Box Office Potential: the biggest comparable would seem to be 2014’s The Interview, which brought in conspiracy theorists and modern-day patriots galore on opening night before disappearing into the Netflix streams. But that was in much fewer theatres and only played at night in most of them. With limited marketing and not much buzz, I’d expect a $7 million opening and a $15 million finish.
Arthouse Class 101
This week, we take to the class with one title.
Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always (Focus) – the abortion debate has been heating up in recent years, especially with the release of last year’s Evangelical exploitation film Unplanned, which was a minor enough success that states made draconian laws against women’s rights because political figures took the film’s debunked claims hook, line and sinker. This film could be seen as a bit of an answer to that film but has stood on its own merits, managing excellent reviews (92 on Metacritic) and a Silver Bear win at Berlin. The premise focuses on a girl in the wilds of rural Pennsylvania, where everyone has a gun and you aren’t sure if it’s Kentucky or Alabama, who with limited options to terminate her unwanted pregnancy, heads off to New York with her cousin to make the abortion happen. In the process, the two learn about themselves and come of age.
So, this should be a big film in New York and Los Angeles. However, expansion will be a problem. A lot of theatres in middle America aren’t going to book it due to the themes. And Focus, realizing that they have a hot-button film their hands, seems to have given it a low-key promotional campaign to avoid controversy much like their parent company’s opener has. So much like the girls having to go to another state to fix their problem, will interested audiences go the few hours or so to their nearest to see it? It’s going to take a lot of box office and stealthily avoiding the angry anti-choice people for it to happen.
12-14 PTA points and $2-3 million in box office.
Top 5: Onward, I Still Believe, Bloodshot, The Invisible Man, The Hunt
PTA: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, Onward, I Still Believe, wild card from an Uno deck
Next week, Six will handle a single wide release, A Quiet Place Part II (Paramount), and two limiteds, The Climb (Sony Pictures Classics), and The Truth (IFC).