SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/14

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/14

Post by numbersix »

It’s lovin time. As that Hallmark holiday hits us like a highly marketed Cupid’s arrow, what better way to put us cinema dorks in a good mood than a big surprise. And that aesthetic aphrodisiac came in the form of one of the biggest shocks in Academy Awards history. For once, the most middle-of-the-road film didn’t win, and instead the exceptional Parasite took home Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Film (the first foreign language film to ever do so). What a shock, and what hope it generates for the future of cinema.

Anyway, back to whatever anti-climax is coming this weekend.




90s kids may be drawn to Sonic the Hedgehog (Paramount), the live-action-with-animation film for kids. It follows the SEGA star who ends up lost here on our Earth, and fleeing the evil Dr Robotnik (played by Jim Carrey) who wants to harness his high-velocity powers.

You may remember that the film was due out last year, but the response to the trailer was incredibly negative, particularly to the oddly animated Sonic whose face plunged us deep into the uncanny valley. Paramount listened, and made Sonic cuter. And it seems like this was the right idea, as the response has been more positive to the new trailers. Not only that, but Sonic has a clean run until Onward in March when it comes to animated films. And if the appalling Doolittle can make decent dough, then surely Sonic can too. Tracking has increased its estimates day on day. I’m thinking a 3-day in the high 20s, and a strong hold resulting in 80-100m, a little like what Peter Rabbit did a few years back. That should give you 11 T5 points, 4 PTA points, and a low 6s IMDB score. At $21/3 in Ultimate that’s a great mid-level pick. In BO it’s a little risky, but if it can near $100m then it’s worth it.





Everyone in Hollywood is obsessed with IP. Hence this bizarre reimagining Fantasy Island (Sony), which takes the harmless and cheesy fantasy TV series and turns it into a twisted horror. I can’t wait when they adapt Quantum Leap into an erotic thriller. The premise of Fantasy Island is the same as the original: people visit an island in order for their deepest fantasies to manifest. But here they turn into nightmares, forcing the visitors to investigate what’s really going on (I’m betting they just find Jason Blum swimming in a vault of cash). It’s been a crowded year so far for horror, with The Grudge, Gretel and Hansel, and The Turning all coming out. And bombing hard. And with The Invisible Man looking like a better prospect, this feels like it will underperform. Tracking has it opening in the mid teens, but I suspect it will hit lower, closer to $10m, and close under $30m. At best you’ll see 4 T5 points, 1 PTA point, a high 5 IMDB, but our prices ($11-13) make it not worth dreaming about.




And because of the day that’s in it, Universal are releasing romance The Photograph. In it, the daughter of a famed and recently deceased photographer discovers a photo that takes her through her mother’s past, and along the way finds werewolves. Nah, just kidding, she finds love. Issa Rae and Lakeith Stanfield play the leads. The film should do well on Friday, particularly with the African-American crowd, and that might just be enough to take it to third place over the weekend. A 3-day of $10m and a cume just past $30m might be in store, but if it tugs those heartstrings just right, it could do better. At $9/10 in both leagues, it’s a little better as an option.

Phew, and yet there’s more: 3 indie releases. Thank fuck What About Love was pushed.




First up is Downhill (Fox Searchlight), a remake of the 2014 Swedish black comedy Force Majeure. That satire on masculinity has been turned into a slightly more ridiculous comedy starring Will Ferrell and Julia Louis-Dreyfus, and is directed by the team who made The Way, Way Back. Sadly, reviews out of Sundance have been poor, and what’s worse is that Fox Searchlight have used the dreaded soft-wide release, putting it out in 1500 theatres. So that means no PTA points, no T5 points, an opening of about $2m and a cume of $5m. That’s pretty bad on all counts.




Next is some major counter-programming, with Ordinary Love (Bleecker St). Despite its title, it’s more about an elderly couple dealing with cancer. The biggest draw is its stars, Liam Neeson and Lesley Manville. This film has some potential, with its strong reviews coming out its debut in Toronto last year. And it should appeal to a key target group: the old folks. The film underperformed in the UK (though who wants to watch a cancer drama during Christmas), but if it expands slowly it could be a great limited release. Keep an eye on the theatre count, and if its low, embrace it.




And finally, we come to Olympic Dreams (IFC), a romantic dramedy set during the Winter Olympics. It doesn’t have any stars, and got middling reviews out of its SXSW launch last year. Don’t expect much on either front.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Sonic the Hedgehog - $28m (32m 4-day)
2. Birds of Prey - $17m (20m 4-day)
3. Fantasy Island - $11m (13m 4-day)
4. The Photograph- $10m (12m 4-day)
5. Bad Boys 3 - $8m (10m 4-day)
6. Parasite - $6m (7.5m 4-day)


PTA: Ordinary Love, The Assistant, The Lodge, Sonic, Olympic Dreams


Next week Boosch examines a host of films, namely Call of the Wild, Brahms: The Boy II, Emma, My Boyfriend's Meds, Greed, and Premature.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Not sure if Parasite will expand that well. It's already available on demand and to buy on physical disc.

I'd expect a post-Oscar bump similar to Moonlight: not great but respectable.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by numbersix »

I failed to realise Portrait of a Lady on Fire is getting a proper release this weekend. Expect that to beat Ordinary Love to the top of the PTA chart.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater Counts

Sonic the Hedgehog - 4,167
Fantasy Island - 2,784
The Photograph - 2,516
Downhill - 2,301
Ordinary Love - 3




Celebrity birthdays:

Yara Shihadi turned 20 on 2/10
Christina Ricci turned 40 on 2/12
Meg Tilly turns 60 on 2/14
Simon Pegg turns 50 on 2/14
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Screen203 »

I actually want to see Downhill (despite the reviews.) It's rare to see Julia Louis-Dreyfus in a theatrical movie nowadays, and seeing Will Ferrell play an asshole sounds entertaining.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Screen203 wrote: and seeing Will Ferrell play an asshole sounds entertaining.

Yeah, he's going so against type in this role... :lol:
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

When has Will Ferrell not played an asshole? Elf and Austin Powers are the only things that come to mind.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by transformers2 »

Outside of his pimp alter ego, he was a pleasant fellow in The Other Guys.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

Oh, right. Speaking of The Other Guys, I never got why The Big Short got so much praise when that was basically the third act of The Other Guys played straight.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Rhythm Section just broke another dubious record. The film dropped 2,955 theatres in its third week, smashing the previous record of 2,679 theatres previously held by The Darkest Minds.

Paramount made a big mistake by not sending this one to Netflix.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Sonic the Hedgehog, $21M
Birds of Prey, $6.3M
The Photograph, $6.3M
Fantasy Island, $5.4M
Bad Boys For Life, $2.0M
1917, $2.5M
Downhill, $2.1M
Jumanji, $1.8M
Dolittle, $1.6M
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Sonic the Hedgehog, $58M
4 points - Birds of Prey, $17.3M
3 points - Fantasy Island, $12.4M
2 points - The Photograph, $12.3M
1 points - Bad Boys For Life, $11.3M
1917, $8.1M
Jumanji: The Next Level, $5.7M
Parasite, $5.7M
Dolittle, $5.1M
Downhill, $4.6M



PTA:
5 points - Portrait of a Lady On Fire
4 points - Sonic the Hedgehog
3 points - Ordinary Love
2 points - The Lodge
1 point - The Photograph
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 2/1

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Sonic the Hedgehog, $58.0M (5)
4 points - Birds of Prey, $17.2M (9)
3 points - Fantasy Island, $12.3M (3)
2 points - The Photograph, $12.2M (2)
1 points - Bad Boys For Life, $11.5M (20)
1917, $8.1M
Parasite, $5.7M
Jumanji: The Next Level, $5.5M
Dolittle, $4.9M
Downhill, $4.6M



PTA:
5 points - Portrait of a Lady On Fire, $20,973 (5... in its 11th week of release!)
4 points - Sonic the Hedgehog, $13,923 (4)
3 points - Ordinary Love, $7,855 (3)
2 points - The Lodge, $6,373 (6)
1 point - The Photograph, $4,842 (1)
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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