SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 1/24

[numbersix]

Well, no one saw that coming. Just when we were ready to pack up Will Smith and left him on the shelf along with Steve Guttenberg and Judge Reinhold and Alicia Silverstone, along comes a sequel that no one really wanted to blow us away. Bad Boys For Life (confusingly the 3rd film in the franchise) destroyed the competition to make the 2nd largest opening in January, with around $62m. Not only that, but the much maligned Dolittle, starring the deeply uncuddly Robert Downey Jnr, also exceeded low expectations to open to $22m and will make $30m across the 4-day holiday weekend. I guess we’re so exhausted from hating Cats that we forget to deride this one. There’s hope for resurrecting tired franchises and sequels to 90s hits. Who can wait for Mr Nanny 2 and Armageddon: Revenge of the Meteor!




This week sees the opening of The Turning (Universal). No, it’s not Terrence Malick’s latest film, in which a door handle is turned in slo-mo for 4 hours, but a reimaging of the classic Henry James novel The Turn of the Screw, which was famously adapted into the 1961 classic The Innocents. The story remains the same: a nanny has to take care of recently orphaned siblings in a house where strange shit goes down. This version, directed by Floria Sigismondi (The Runaways) and starring MacKenzie David and Finn Wolfhard, is a modernized stylistic affair. It seems this story is quite popular, with Mike Flanagan also adapting the source for his The Haunting of Bly Manor series for Netflix, due out in later this year.

There are no reviews so far, which is common for horrors like this. But there’s not much here that makes the story stand out, at least from the marketing. Strange kids, creepy old houses, we’ve seen all this before. With plenty of horror fare out next month (and nothing being as mind-numbingly terrifying as Cats), it’s hard to see this do well. And with last weekend over-performing, expect this one to suck. A $10m opening is the best you’ll see, meaning a $25m cume, with a low 6/high 5 IMDB score, 1-2 PTA points, and at most 3 T5 points. It’s not too expensive at $9 for each league, but I suspect you could do better.




The Gentlemen (STX) is Guy Ritchie’s supposed return to form. Or at least his return to British gangsters instead of making Sherlock Holmes an action hero or making Will Smith blue. But of course, a return to form for Ritchie doesn’t mean much in the US, considering his key film Snatch only made $30m. Anyway, the story involves crime and a lot of cockney rhyming slang, and features Hugh Grant, Matthew McConaughey, Colin Farrell and Charlie Hunnam.

On paper this could be a modest hit, with a half-decent response from the critics. But it’s performing meekly in the UK, and frankly no one seems to give a monkey’s. Again, the best it can hope for is a $10-ish opening, but I suspect it’ll be a tad lower, and again $25m will be all it struts out with. 1 PTA point, 1 T5 point, and a low 7s IMDB score will be its best attempt in Ultimate, which also doesn’t make it worth your precious $9. If you adam-and-eve me, scarper as fast as you can, guv.




Finally we have one limited release, Roadside Attraction’s The Last Full Measure. It’s a war drama about an attempt to award a medal to an Air Force medic who rejected an opportunity to leave the Vietnam War in order to stay and save his fellow soldiers. The cast features Samuel L Jackson, Ed Harris, Diane Ladd, Chris Plummer, and Jeremy Irvine as the soldier in question. Sadly, there’s virtually no buzz about this, a film that should have done a festival run. It’s more than likely going to be an uplifting melodrama, but it won’t deliver much for the game, especially as Roadside seem to be opening in anywhere from a few dozen to a few hundred theatres. So it’s in the grey zone for Ultimate, and certainly won’t be worth the $5-6 in BO.



Predictions for the weekend

1. Bad Boys For Life (and at least one more sequel) - $26m
2. 1917 (the average birth year of awards voters)- $12.5m
3. Dolittle (good and still the money comes rolling in) - $12m
4. The Turning (of the grave of Jack Clayton) - $10m
5. The Gentleguvs - $8.5m


PTA: Bad Boys, 1917, Dolittle, The Turning, The Last Full Measure.


Well that was a bummer. Let’s hope next week offers more hope, as Screen203 looks at The Rhythm Section and Gretel and Hansel, as well as limited releases The Assistant and The Traitor.

[Buscemi2]

When I went to an advance screening of The Gentlemen a week and a half back, the audience reaction was pretty much dead with the exception of a few sections. In addition, the film has gotten mixed-to-negative reviews and STX is basically dumping it. Even if it surprises this weekend (which I doubt as McConaughey hasn't had a hit in a long while), legs will be short.

I'm thinking a $5-6 million opening and a Cinemascore in the C range.

[Chienfantome]

You realize it's a shitty week of release when your low predictions still seem a bit too optimistic.

And no, Malick would never make a film out of a door handle turning in slo-mo for 4 hours. But Bela Tarr would

[Buscemi2]

Satantango could have easily been two hours.

[numbersix]

And no, Malick would never make a film out of a door handle turning in slo-mo for 4 hours. But Bela Tarr would

Haha true, although A Hidden Life would have been way better if it was an hour shorter!

[Chienfantome]

I loved A Hidden Life
I hadn't loved a Malick film since Tree of Life

[Screen203]

Here for the Blumhouse remake of Disturbing Behaviour (basically The Stepford Wives Know What You Did Last Summer, with Katie Holmes)...

Don't think either new release will do much - thought Turning had potential, but there's no buzz at all.

[transformers2]

Figured this would be the appropriate place to share this since six took a couple of jabs at it in his column, but Cats is already being treated as a midnight movie by a theater just outside of Boston : https://coolidge.org/programs/after-midnite

[Buscemi2]

They're doing a few audience participation screenings near me this weekend.

If Cats killed the movie musical, it's not going to be a good 2020 for studios. In the Heights and the West Side Story remake were not cheap movies.

Edit: and why is that theatre trying to make the Carrie remake a cult film? It's one of the more unnecessary remakes in recent memory. But then again, Tarantino's shown the 1998 version of Psycho at his theatre a few times.

[Shrykespeare]

Birthdays this week:

Richard Dean Anderson (MacGyver!) turns 70 on 1/23
Matthew Lillard (Shaggy!) turns 50 on 1/24

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates

Bad Boys For Life, $8.9M
1917, $4M
The Gentlemen, $3.7M
Dolittle, $2.7M
The Turning, $2.5M
Jumanji, $1.8M
Star Wars, $1.3M
Little Women, $1.2M




Weekend Projections:

Bad Boys For Life, $30M
1917, $14.3M
Dolittle, $13M
The Gentlemen, $10.9M
Jumanji, $7.1M
The Turning, $6.9M
Star Wars, $6.3M
Little Women, $4.5M
Just Mercy, $3.9M
Knives Out, $3.3M

[Buscemi2]

Only four weeks into the year and we already have our second F Cinemascore with The Turning. I have to wonder if studios will start sending their long delayed horror titles to Netflix as it's obvious that both this and The Grudge were not meant for wide theatrical distribution.

[transformers2]

Really hot start for 2020 horror movies

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Bad Boys For Life, $34M
4 points - 1917, $15.8M
3 points - Dolittle, $12.8M
2 points - The Gentlemen, $11M
1 point - Jumanji: The Next Level, $7.9M
The Turning, $7.3M
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $5.2M
Little Women, $4.7M
Just Mercy, $4.1M
Knives Out, $3.6M



PTA:
5 points - Bad Boys For Life
4 points - The Gentlemen
3 points - 1917
2 points - Dolittle
1 point - The Turning

[Shrykespeare]

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Bad Boys For Life, $34.0M (10)
4 points - 1917, $15.9M (13)
3 points - Dolittle, $12.2M (6)
2 points - The Gentlemen, $10.7M (2)
1 point - Jumanji: The Next Level, $7.7M (23)
The Turning, $7.0M
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $5.6M
Little Women, $4.6M
Just Mercy, $4.0M
Knives Out, $3.5M



PTA:
5 points - Bad Boys For Life, $9,010 (10)
4 points - The Gentlemen, $4,920 (4)
3 points - 1917, $4,043 (22)
2 points - Dolittle, $2,936 (5)
1 point - The Turning, $2,703 (1)




Star Wars: ROS cracks $500M. Frozen II is just shy of $470M.

Jumanji is at $283M. $300M remains a remote possibility.

Knives Out hits $150M. Who saw THAT coming?

Bad Boys For Life is at $120M and counting. Nobody saw THAT coming.

1917 is now at $103M and showing no signs of slowing down as we approach Oscar night.

Little Women needs just under $7M to achieve blockbuster status. I think it'll get there.