SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last week, a war drama 103 years in the making wrested the box office crown away from another "war" drama set... well, a long time ago (in a galaxy far far away). 1917 powered to a $37M OW in its first week of expansion, relegating Rise of Skywalker to second place. Ep IX is closing in on $500M, and will likely hit it by the end of the month. Rounding out the Top 5 were Jumanji: Not Quite the Boss Level ($14M), Like a Boss ($10M), and Just Mercy ($9.7M in its expansion week). 1917 also took home the PTA crown, AGAIN, for the 3rd straight week. Seeing as how $100M BO is likely, this just might be the pick of the season.

Two new films to talk about this week, both wide releases and each with an aging yet still popular actor in the lead role.



After spending most of the 2010s away from big-time action roles, Will Smith is going all-out to revitalize his career. The Artist Formerly Known as The Fresh Prince pretty much owned the 90s and the aughts, but while the 51-year old still has a fair amount of charisma, I question his decision to team up with Martin Lawrence for Bad Boys For Life, Part 3 in a series that most of us thought ended in 2003. I suppose it was either this or continue to step back into his role as Agent J, and given how shitty the last MIB film did, maybe BBFL will surprise.

A pair of directors I've never heard of (Adil El Arbi and Bilal Fallah) are behind the camera for this actioner, which re-teams Smith and Lawrence as Mike Lowery and Marcus Burnett. Lowery is now the "old guy" leading a crack team of hotshot millenials with whom he has nothing in common, while Burnett has given up car chases and taken a more administrative role. That all changes when a cartel mob boss (Alexander Ludwig) seeks vengeance on the guys who defeated his brother just as Lowery and Burnett are considering hanging up their shields for good.

Yeah, so it's Die Hard 3 filtered through Lethal Weapon 4, basically. Vanessa Hudgens is along as the eye candy, and Joe Pantoliano (remember him?) is back on screen as the token grizzled captain who orders the bad boys not to do stupid shit before they go do it anyway.

Set to bow in 3700 theaters, this is the kind of film that I believe will start fast and die quickly. The two leads have just enough on-screen chemistry to deliver the goods for a healthy OW, which I predict will be around $25M. It will exit theaters in two months with $65M total, ten T5 points, three PTA and a Rating around 7.0. For $16 in Ultimate and BO, you could do worse. If you must have it on your slate, I'd go with Ultimate. There's not much in the way of staunch competition until Birds of Prey comes out, so feel secure that you can ride this train all the way to the sunset.




Then we have Dolittle, Robert Downey Jr.'s first major film role since Tony Stark died saving the universe. Stephen Gaughan (Syriana) directs this film and also wrote the screenplay for the film, which is based on the classic children's story about a Victorian-era doctor who discovers he can talk to animals. In this interpretation, the good doctor (Downey) sets sail on an epic adventure (like there's another kind) to a mythical island in search for a cure to whatever caused old Queen Vicki to fall gravely ill. I will say this - the array of talent is impressive, including Oscar noms/winners like Emma Thompson, Rami Malek, Octavia Spencer, Ralph Fiennes, and Marion Cotillard as animal voices. Also joining the fun are Tom Holland (who is EVERYWHERE now), John Cena, Craig Robinson, Selena Gomez, and (playing a human being for once) Antonio Banderas.

With Frozen II and, to a degree, Star Wars still eating up the kiddie bucks, Dolittle may not get out to as fast a start as BBFL, but seeing as how there isn't a truly kid-friendly on the menu until Valentine's Day, it should have decent legs. While more expensive than Bad Boys at $18 Ultimate ($19 Box Office), I think it's the better pick. I predict eleven Top 5 points, four PTA, and $90M overall. January tends to be weak, but this is one of the stronger picks you can make.




Top 5:

Bad Boys For Life, $25M
Dolittle, $21M
1917, $19M
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $9M
Jumanji: The Next Level, $8M


PTA: Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, 1917, anybody's guess.


Next week, The RS version of The Irishman (also deserving of awards) will continue our slog through January with three new films: The Turning, The Gentlemen, and The Last Full Measure

TTFN!
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

Frances Sternhagen turned 90 on 1/13
Liam Hemsworth turned 30 on 1/13
Zooey Deschanel turns 40 on 1/17
Mark Rylance turns 60 on 1/18
Jason Segel turns 40 on 1/18
Tippi Hedren turns 90 on 1/19
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by numbersix »

I'll go higher on Bad Boys. Smith's value may be low these days, but the nostalgia factor will help that. It's also the first pure action film in some time. So I'm thinking $40m for the 4-day weekend, 35 for the 3 day.

Dolittle could fare a lot worse, with nothing but bad press and reactions so far.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, Bad Boys has surprisingly good reviews too, it will go higher than that. It could go even higher than $40M for the film during the 4-day week-end.
Also, 1917 will hold much better than that, the film will probably grab around $30M for the 4-day.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Chienfantome »

First reports indicate Bad Boys For Life made more than $6M in its thursday night previews !! With great reviews and WOM, the film's gonna be bigger than expected.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by transformers2 »

Absolutely stunned by the Bad Boys preview numbers. What sequels/franchise revivals will or will not generate interest from audiences remains the most uncrackable code in the industry.
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Buscemi2 »

Bad Boys for Life is looking at a $70 million opening. If there was any doubt that Will Smith was back, that doubt should disappear.

By the way, that's more than the original made in its entire run (of course, inflation probably doubles that number).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Bad Boys For Life, $23.5M
Dolittle, $6.3M
1917, $6.2M
Jumanji, $2.2M
Star Wars, $2.0M
Just Mercy, $1.6M
Little Women, $1.6M
Like a Boss, $1.2M
Knives Out, $1.1M




Weekend Projections

Bad Boys For LIfe, $54.7M
Dolittle, $24M
1917, $21.9M
Jumanji, $9.5M
Star Wars, $8.6M
Just Mercy, $6.4M
Little Women, $6.1M
Like a Boss, $4.6M
Knives Out, $4.2M
Frozen II, $4.1M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Chienfantome »

I'm gonna climb on the podium of the FY draft after all, and I suspect not for the bronze medal...
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Screen203 »

Massive for Bad Boys. Honestly I think Sony has the best marketing team in Hollywood at the moment.

Could (if the movie is anything like the preview, should) have been worse for Doolittle - crazy to think it could outgross Terminator.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Bad Boys For Life, $59.2M
4 points - Dolittle, $22.5M
3 points - 1917, $22.1M
2 points - Jumanji: The Next Level, $9.6M
1 point - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $8.4M
Just Mercy, $6.0M
Little Women, $5.9M
Knives Out, $4.3M
Like a Boss, $3.8M
Frozen II, $3.7M


PTA:
5 points - Bad Boys For LIfe
4 points - 1917
3 points - Dolittle
2 points - Jumanji
1 point - Star Wars
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by numbersix »

Despite earning over 100m less, it looks like Rise of Skywalker was a better Ultimate pick than The Last Jedi.

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Walleye413 »

I honestly don't understand American cinema. Some things make me smile, others make no sense to me. An original movie like Knives Out doing well makes me glad. Parasite finding an audience makes me glad. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood struggling makes me sad. Joker making 300 million is totally perplexing. Bad Boys for Life breaking out just seems odd. I haven't seen it - I moderately enjoyed the first one - although a second viewing for my podcast showed it definitely did not hold up. I'm sure we can all pretend to point to factors that show why this movie "worked" but more and more I feel like it's a total crapshoot. 65 million? In 4 days? Movie Execs might be one of the most stressed out groups in the world. How do they ever know that they're doing it right?
Anyway - kudos to those of you who picked Bad Boys. When do you think we'll be getting another sequel?

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by W »

Bad Boys was really fun. I could see it being Sony's attempt at Fast and Furious.

Listened to your Top Gun this weekend. Glad you finally got sponsors. j/k
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17

Post by Chienfantome »

I can understand you Walleye, how many times have I wondered what the hell was wrong with American audiences when I saw the box-office results :lol:
At least Bad Boys For Life has good reviews and word of mouth so it's not the biggest shock.
Joker's success and reputation baffles me, I didn't find it very good.

Parasite has been a phenomenon, even here in France, where it made 1.7 million entries, which is absolutely huge for an Asian film. The biggest Korean film here up until now was 320.000 entries. Parasite ended up the 29th largest success of 2019 at the French BO, which was totally unheard of. It's the only film in the Top 50 that isn't either French or American.
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