SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 1/17
Posted: January 15th, 2020, 7:17 pm
Last week, a war drama 103 years in the making wrested the box office crown away from another "war" drama set... well, a long time ago (in a galaxy far far away). 1917 powered to a $37M OW in its first week of expansion, relegating Rise of Skywalker to second place. Ep IX is closing in on $500M, and will likely hit it by the end of the month. Rounding out the Top 5 were Jumanji: Not Quite the Boss Level ($14M), Like a Boss ($10M), and Just Mercy ($9.7M in its expansion week). 1917 also took home the PTA crown, AGAIN, for the 3rd straight week. Seeing as how $100M BO is likely, this just might be the pick of the season.
Two new films to talk about this week, both wide releases and each with an aging yet still popular actor in the lead role.
After spending most of the 2010s away from big-time action roles, Will Smith is going all-out to revitalize his career. The Artist Formerly Known as The Fresh Prince pretty much owned the 90s and the aughts, but while the 51-year old still has a fair amount of charisma, I question his decision to team up with Martin Lawrence for Bad Boys For Life, Part 3 in a series that most of us thought ended in 2003. I suppose it was either this or continue to step back into his role as Agent J, and given how shitty the last MIB film did, maybe BBFL will surprise.
A pair of directors I've never heard of (Adil El Arbi and Bilal Fallah) are behind the camera for this actioner, which re-teams Smith and Lawrence as Mike Lowery and Marcus Burnett. Lowery is now the "old guy" leading a crack team of hotshot millenials with whom he has nothing in common, while Burnett has given up car chases and taken a more administrative role. That all changes when a cartel mob boss (Alexander Ludwig) seeks vengeance on the guys who defeated his brother just as Lowery and Burnett are considering hanging up their shields for good.
Yeah, so it's Die Hard 3 filtered through Lethal Weapon 4, basically. Vanessa Hudgens is along as the eye candy, and Joe Pantoliano (remember him?) is back on screen as the token grizzled captain who orders the bad boys not to do stupid shit before they go do it anyway.
Set to bow in 3700 theaters, this is the kind of film that I believe will start fast and die quickly. The two leads have just enough on-screen chemistry to deliver the goods for a healthy OW, which I predict will be around $25M. It will exit theaters in two months with $65M total, ten T5 points, three PTA and a Rating around 7.0. For $16 in Ultimate and BO, you could do worse. If you must have it on your slate, I'd go with Ultimate. There's not much in the way of staunch competition until Birds of Prey comes out, so feel secure that you can ride this train all the way to the sunset.
Then we have Dolittle, Robert Downey Jr.'s first major film role since Tony Stark died saving the universe. Stephen Gaughan (Syriana) directs this film and also wrote the screenplay for the film, which is based on the classic children's story about a Victorian-era doctor who discovers he can talk to animals. In this interpretation, the good doctor (Downey) sets sail on an epic adventure (like there's another kind) to a mythical island in search for a cure to whatever caused old Queen Vicki to fall gravely ill. I will say this - the array of talent is impressive, including Oscar noms/winners like Emma Thompson, Rami Malek, Octavia Spencer, Ralph Fiennes, and Marion Cotillard as animal voices. Also joining the fun are Tom Holland (who is EVERYWHERE now), John Cena, Craig Robinson, Selena Gomez, and (playing a human being for once) Antonio Banderas.
With Frozen II and, to a degree, Star Wars still eating up the kiddie bucks, Dolittle may not get out to as fast a start as BBFL, but seeing as how there isn't a truly kid-friendly on the menu until Valentine's Day, it should have decent legs. While more expensive than Bad Boys at $18 Ultimate ($19 Box Office), I think it's the better pick. I predict eleven Top 5 points, four PTA, and $90M overall. January tends to be weak, but this is one of the stronger picks you can make.
Top 5:
Bad Boys For Life, $25M
Dolittle, $21M
1917, $19M
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $9M
Jumanji: The Next Level, $8M
PTA: Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, 1917, anybody's guess.
Next week, The RS version of The Irishman (also deserving of awards) will continue our slog through January with three new films: The Turning, The Gentlemen, and The Last Full Measure
TTFN!
Two new films to talk about this week, both wide releases and each with an aging yet still popular actor in the lead role.
After spending most of the 2010s away from big-time action roles, Will Smith is going all-out to revitalize his career. The Artist Formerly Known as The Fresh Prince pretty much owned the 90s and the aughts, but while the 51-year old still has a fair amount of charisma, I question his decision to team up with Martin Lawrence for Bad Boys For Life, Part 3 in a series that most of us thought ended in 2003. I suppose it was either this or continue to step back into his role as Agent J, and given how shitty the last MIB film did, maybe BBFL will surprise.
A pair of directors I've never heard of (Adil El Arbi and Bilal Fallah) are behind the camera for this actioner, which re-teams Smith and Lawrence as Mike Lowery and Marcus Burnett. Lowery is now the "old guy" leading a crack team of hotshot millenials with whom he has nothing in common, while Burnett has given up car chases and taken a more administrative role. That all changes when a cartel mob boss (Alexander Ludwig) seeks vengeance on the guys who defeated his brother just as Lowery and Burnett are considering hanging up their shields for good.
Yeah, so it's Die Hard 3 filtered through Lethal Weapon 4, basically. Vanessa Hudgens is along as the eye candy, and Joe Pantoliano (remember him?) is back on screen as the token grizzled captain who orders the bad boys not to do stupid shit before they go do it anyway.
Set to bow in 3700 theaters, this is the kind of film that I believe will start fast and die quickly. The two leads have just enough on-screen chemistry to deliver the goods for a healthy OW, which I predict will be around $25M. It will exit theaters in two months with $65M total, ten T5 points, three PTA and a Rating around 7.0. For $16 in Ultimate and BO, you could do worse. If you must have it on your slate, I'd go with Ultimate. There's not much in the way of staunch competition until Birds of Prey comes out, so feel secure that you can ride this train all the way to the sunset.
Then we have Dolittle, Robert Downey Jr.'s first major film role since Tony Stark died saving the universe. Stephen Gaughan (Syriana) directs this film and also wrote the screenplay for the film, which is based on the classic children's story about a Victorian-era doctor who discovers he can talk to animals. In this interpretation, the good doctor (Downey) sets sail on an epic adventure (like there's another kind) to a mythical island in search for a cure to whatever caused old Queen Vicki to fall gravely ill. I will say this - the array of talent is impressive, including Oscar noms/winners like Emma Thompson, Rami Malek, Octavia Spencer, Ralph Fiennes, and Marion Cotillard as animal voices. Also joining the fun are Tom Holland (who is EVERYWHERE now), John Cena, Craig Robinson, Selena Gomez, and (playing a human being for once) Antonio Banderas.
With Frozen II and, to a degree, Star Wars still eating up the kiddie bucks, Dolittle may not get out to as fast a start as BBFL, but seeing as how there isn't a truly kid-friendly on the menu until Valentine's Day, it should have decent legs. While more expensive than Bad Boys at $18 Ultimate ($19 Box Office), I think it's the better pick. I predict eleven Top 5 points, four PTA, and $90M overall. January tends to be weak, but this is one of the stronger picks you can make.
Top 5:
Bad Boys For Life, $25M
Dolittle, $21M
1917, $19M
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, $9M
Jumanji: The Next Level, $8M
PTA: Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, 1917, anybody's guess.
Next week, The RS version of The Irishman (also deserving of awards) will continue our slog through January with three new films: The Turning, The Gentlemen, and The Last Full Measure
TTFN!
