SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

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Shrykespeare
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SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Last weekend, Frozen II, the most anticipated Disney movie in years, jumped out to a strong start of over $130 million. Only time will tell how strong it's legs are, but it should easily hold sway over the week offerings that the next few weeks will bring, earning a shit-ton of Top 5 points and PTA points before theaters let it go. (See what I did there?) It also edged out Dark Waters for the PTA crown, though I doubt that indie film is done earning points in that category. In more disappointing news, Tom Hanks' potential award-winning turn as Mr. Rogers failed to find a significant audience this weekend, earning only $13.2 million, which wasn't even good enough to top Mssrs. Damon and Bale for second place. Hell, it barely beat out T'Challa's crime-cop vehicle 21 Bridges, which nobody expected to top $10M (and it didn't).

Only two films to talk about this week, and with everything not starring two animated orphaned sisters bound to bring in less-than-stellar numbers, either or both could conceivably break out (and with naught but crap coming out next week, look for multiple weeks in the Top 5).

The first is Knives Out (Lionsgate), director Rian Johnson's first feature film since helming The Last Jedi. He also produced and wrote the screenplay for the film, a mystery thriller with a whodunit premise and an all-star cast that includes James Bond, Captain America, General Zod, Laurie Strode, and Sonny Crockett. It's a typical whodunut setup - a gathering of eclectic, possibly mentally unbalanced friends/family members gather together for a dinner party when the patriarch (Christopher Plummer) dies under mysterious circumstances. The police are called in, along with noted private eye Benoit Blanc (Daniel Craig), who are tasked with sorting through the dysfunctional guests in order to determine "ze murderer". Given that everyone is a likely suspect, that should prove interesting. I have no idea if it's true or not, but my money's on Captain America. I mean, he's the guy you'd least suspect, right??

Given the all-star cast and lack of worthy adult fare, I think Knives Out could do fairly well. It certainly looks more interesting than Tom Hanks donning a variety of sweaters, and has been better marketed that Sir Ian and Dame Helen's thriller. I predict that it will earn $20M this weekend, perhaps $32M over the five-day. It should earn 10-12 Top 5 points and 5 PTA, and it's current Rating of 7.8 certainly won't hurt you in that category. I'd love to see this film hit $100M, but I think it'll likely top out around $75M.

Fledgling director Melina Matsoukas is behind the camera for this weekend's other debut, Queen & Slim, a romantic drama that should appeal to the African American moviegoing community far more than Black and Blue (and hopefully more than 21 Bridges). In this film, a young couple (Black Panther's Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner-Smith) on their first date are pulled over by a white cop for a minor violation (DWB, anyone?). As things are wont, to do, things escalate into violence, and Q&S are forced to go on the run. When their story goes viral, the couple find themselves as living symbols of oppressed black people being kept down by the man all over the country. Or something. The film also stars Bokeem Woodbine, Chloe Sevigny, and... FLEA??? Huh. Don't think I've seen him in a film since Back to the Future II...

Queem & Slim are getting a modest release of only 1,600 theaters, but it still could be enough to crack eight digits for the five-day weekend. I'm not sure it's worth spending the cash on it, to be honest, but if you are het up for a roster-filler, you could do worse (PLAYMOBIL).


Predictions (3-day):

Frozen II, $77M
Knives Out, $22M
Ford v Ferrari, $8M
Queen & Slim, $7M
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, $7M


PTA - Frozen II, Dark Waters, Knives Out, Waves, Honey Boy


Next week, Boosh has the unenviable task of covering the first weekend of December. This frozen wasteland includes Harry Potter in a LEGO-light animated film, an indie film that will probably not report, and one worthy movie called Portrait of a Lady on Fire.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Shrykespeare
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Celebrity birthdays:

Joel Kinnaman turned 40 on 11/25
Tina Turner turned 80 on 11/26
Mark Margolis turned 80 on 11/26
Judd Nelson turns 60 on 11/28 (BENDER!!!)
Diego Klattenhoff turns 40 on 11/30
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

The Aeronauts isn't reporting, which will be the policy for Amazon's "two weeks followed by Prime" titles (I did find out it will be playing near me on 6th though, I'll be surprised if anyone shows). Therefore, I'll just be covering the two.
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numbersix
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by numbersix »

Shryke, surely you remember Flea as one of the nihilists in The Big Lebowski. Y'know, the guys who care about nothing!

Anyway, I'd say Knives Out will earn a little less. Maybe 28m for the 5 days, based on last night's 1.7m previews, and $65m. There's a lot coming out from mid December onwards.

How come there's no limited releases this weekend? Sure this is the perfect time to launch a film and expand wide in early Jan???

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

The only high-profile ones are 63 Up and The Two Popes, but one is from a new distributor that wasn't listed by Box Office Mojo and the other is Netflix.

Neon could have easily put one of their titles here but they seem to be preoccupied with Parasite's Oscar campaign (I've seen absolutely nothing for Clemency and this is supposed to be their big Christmas movie).
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by W »

all those pre-screenings count in the first Friday, right? Knives has basically been out almost a month already. I could see an inflated weekend for Knives Out based on that with a false large second weekend drop.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Buscemi2 »

Yes, the previews are being added to the Wednesday gross.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Chienfantome »

Word of mouth is fantastic on Knives Out, it should have strong legs and do some decent numbers.
Frozen made $20M on tuesday, the cash is gonna flow with the Thanksgiving weekend !
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by numbersix »

450m minimum for Frozen 2

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, by the end of this Thanksgiving weekend, it will already be close to $300M.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by transformers2 »

Queen & Slim is going to be an interesting title to track over the next few weeks. Exit polling has been even stronger than Knives Out (A- Cinemascore/5 stars on PostTrak with a 79% definite recommend rate) and it's slightly beating industry projections ($11.2 mil 3-day/$15.3 mil 5-day) at the moment. Obviously Knives Out seems poised to become the season's "surprise" breakout hit, but it could conceivably leg out to $50 mil or so before the flood of adult-aimed dramatic titles hits around Christmas.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by numbersix »

Looks like Knives Out will make over 40m for the 5 days. Did not see that coming. Could be a 100m film after all!

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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Chienfantome »

It might indeed. Great numbers.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Friday Estimates

Frozen II, $34.0M
Knives Out, $10.7M
Ford v Ferrari, $5.4M
A Beautiful Day, $5.0M
Queen & Slim, $4.3M
21 Bridges, $2.2M
Midway, $1.7M
Playing With Fire, $1.7M




Weekend Projections:

Frozen II, $85.0M
Knives Out, $27.0M ($41.7M 5-day)
Ford v Ferrari, $13.6M
A Beautiful Day, $12.9M
Queen & Slim, $11.0M ($15.1M 5-day)
21 Bridges, $5.8M
Playing With Fire, $4.3M
Midway, $4.1M
Last Christmas, $2.0M
Joker, $2.0M






Joker will hit $330M on Sunday.

Frozen II will hit $300M by mid-week.

Ford v Ferrari has an excellent chance to top $100M. Knives Out does as well if it can hold over the next two weeks.
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Re: SPEARE'S TIPS - THE FILMS OF 11/28

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Estimates

Top 10:
5 points - Frozen II, $85.2M
4 points - Knives Out, $27.0M
3 points - Ford v Ferrari, $13.2M
2 points - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, $11.8M
1 point - Queen & Slim, $11.7M
21 Bridges $5.8M
Playing With Fire, $4.2M
Midway, $4.0M
Joker, $2.0M
Last Christmas, $2.0M



PTA:
5 points - Frozen II
4 points - Knives Out
3 points - Queen & Slim
2 points - Dark Waters
1 point - Ford v Ferrari
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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