Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

Mr. Columnist himself presents weekly analysis and tips.

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Walleye413
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Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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It’s a Mid-November Miracle! A film for grown-ups was well received, won the week, and totally over-performed. Ford v. Ferrari got old men and women out of their Lazy-boys and in into a theatre to the tune of 31 million for the weekend. Look for Damon and Bale to leg this sucker out to 100 million over the Thanksgiving break (with one possible speed bump). Everything else bombed! Wow, how about those Angels? Or those Liars? Waves did well in limited release, so there’s that - and it’ll probably hang on for a few weeks so kudos to those of you who chose it. But the surprise of the week was a car movie that didn’t start Vin Diesel and/or the Rock. Who would have guessed?

This week things get serious with one of the biggest movies of the year finally landing - plus a decent undercard. There’s two movies to avoid, but surely you’ve already done that - so let’s just talk about the good stuff.

I love Frozen. I’ll own it. The Frozen haters are in full force so I shall stand up to their negativity and sing a hearty and strong - Let it go! When the original Frozen came out it was a surprise hit. But come on - the music was so much fun, the characters were actually clever, the plot surprisingly nuanced. Yes after every Tweenager sang it incessantly we needed a break. But let’s not jump on the snarky bandwagon and pretend that Frozen wasn’t a way above average kid movie with an incredibly positive message for young girls.

And hey - they didn’t just rush out a sequel. They did a Broadway musical, yes, but not a sequel. They waited to try and get a story worth telling - and by early accounts they nailed it. Great tunes you’ll be humming whether you want to or not. A plot that doesn’t revolve around a princess finding “true love” but instead two young women who support and trust each other. It’s time to fall in love with Frozen 2. For game purposes you’re either choosing this or Star Wars. Not sure you can go wrong either way. Frozen 2 saves you a few bucks and will probably get you identical PTA and Top 5 points just falling short on Box Office total. It should open around 100 million, and hit 400 million total though, so that ain’t too bad. I’ll live tweet it for ya’ll when I see it too :)

And the hits just keep on rolling. Frozen not your thing, how about America’s favorite actor starring as America’s favorite kids show host? A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is exactly what our cynical society needs. The story of a reporter assigned to cover Fred Rogers, and being reminded that there are good people in the world who still bring light to all they do. Tom Hanks had better get an Oscar nomination for his work as the titular Rogers. And I really hope this movie does as well as it should. Seriously if Joker can make 300 million+, can’t a movie designed to bring hope and joy make half that? That’s my prediction. 25 million over the weekend, plus a boost at Thanksgiving to get into that 125-150 million range. It’ll fall behind Frozen this week and maybe Knives Out next weekend, but still do decent PTA and Top 5 numbers. Make your day better, and choose this movie. And go see it.

As for 21 Bridges, sigh. How does any movie starring Chadwick Boseman not over-perform? Apparently you need to put him in a dark, like literally dark I can barely see these previews, been-there-seen-that cop thriller. Queen & Slim looks way more interesting, way more relevant, and should kick the crap out of Black Panther lite. I’d stay away from this one and spend your money a week later for better bang for your buck.

There is one specialty movie this weekend, and my goodness it should be a hit - but doesn’t look like one after all. Dark Waters is about an environmentalist (check) taking on greedy corporations (check) from an Oscar nominated director (check) with Oscar winning stars (check and check). And it’s got The Hulk! How is this thing not a massive Oscar front-runner? And yet it’s got no buzz, weak reviews, and will fall way short of Honey Boy and Waves from the previous weeks. Bummer. Avoid it.

That’s it - but hey - what more do you need? Pick ABDITN or Frozen 2 and reap the rewards.

Top 5
Frozen 2
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford vs. Ferrari
Midway
21 Bridges

PTA
Frozen 2
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Dark Waters
Waves
Honey Boy

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

21 Bridges is basically getting dumped. Between almost no marketing and mixed early word, it might not even hit $4 million for the weekend.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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Dark Waters is 93% on RT and 70 on Metacritic. Wouldn't say that's bad. I think it will battle with Frozen 2 for the top spot and earn more in the next weeks.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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Yeah, Dark Waters will do just fine in PTA, no doubt about it. I just wonder if it's got what it takes to make some money once it'll expand.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

Post by Shrykespeare »

Torn on Dark Waters. At least in the Mini Supers it seems obvious - Frozen in R1, Star Wars in R2. Should be interesting.


Celebrity birthdays:

Allison Janney turns 60 on 11/19
Sean Young turns 60 on 11/20
Jerry Hardin turns 80 on 11/20
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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Frozen II got released in France yesterday and had the biggest opening day ever, admissions-wise, for an animated film released in the fall.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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What's everyone's Frozen II opening prediction?

I'm going to go with a safe $125m

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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$140 mil
BRING BRENDAN FRASER BACK TO THE BIG SCREEN DAMN IT
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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I'm thinking with Thanksgiving next weekend, it won't go as high as it could as far as opening weekends go, but considering how low the BO has been recently, a huge surge is possible. I'm thinking between 140 and 150.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

Post by Screen203 »

140 sounds about right. The thing that makes Frozen (and the Disney Renaissance films too) so much more successful is the musical aspect that draws a much older audience of musical fans. If the music is as good as the first film's, the sky is the limit as far as legs go.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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I think 130. The legs will be killer though.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

Post by Buscemi2 »

Reviews haven't been as good on this one (64 on Metacritic, ten points below the first film). I'm thinking it opens higher but fails to clear $500 million due to Star Wars and Jumanji demanding screens in the next few weeks.

However, one thing that will help is the inevitable failure of Cats, which will more than likely get dumped into the smaller auditoriums opening weekend while Frozen II still has an audience. While Lucy in the Sky is perhaps the year's biggest loser in terms of returns, Cats could lose more money than Dark Phoenix or Terminator: Dark Fate in terms of financial volume. I read that Universal needs to have the film gross $750 million worldwide to break even. And they didn't even get the pay cable rights (Amblin did), which would have netted them a good $15-20 million already.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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Dear lord the Cats budget was £230m!!!!!

It looks like it was shot for $5.50 using bits of sets thrown away from other studio movies.

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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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It's incredibly horrible to think that thing costed so much money. What a waste.
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Re: Walleye's Weekly Winners - 11/22

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I don't think this will help a ton financially, but I"m curious how many people are going to hate-watch it. It's become such a punching bag, there's got to be people who are going to go just to laugh at it.

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