SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/18

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SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/18

Post by numbersix »

October may be traditionally the month of shocks, but this year it’s so far been a month of surprises. An offbeat take on Batman’s nemesis broke all sorts of records, particularly in its second week when it held incredibly well. A failing United Artists managed to beat expectations with a cheap animation of an old TV show, The Addams Family, opening to over 30m. 2 Will Smiths and an Oscar winner failed to make an impact. And a satirical South Korean flick nabbed one of the highest theatre averages of all time.

So will this week see some bombshells?


TUSSLE AT THE TOP







Now normally there’d be a clear winner this weekend. Who would bet against a Disney-released sequel to a surprisingly successful blockbuster starring one of the most recognisable actresses of our generation? Alas, the magic mirror is a little hazy when it comes to the future of Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. What should be a sure-fire hit could be a rotten apple, with the film coming out over 5 years since the first, and it’s hardly remembered with such fondness.

In the other figurative corner is the complete opposite: a modest film that over-performed and is now considered a classic. Zombieland came out a decade ago but most feel it’s one of the best horror comedies of all time, hence there’s arguably more anticipation for Zombieland: Double Tap (Sony). The cast all return, including Emma Stone who has haul sacks of indie cred and awards in between the two bouts of zombie beheading.

So while one would assume Disney will win, I wouldn’t be so hasty. Current expectations are for the fairy queen to open in the low 40s, but I could see this faring worse, particularly when The Addams Family is performing well and possibly hovering up the younger audience who crave tepid scares for this pagan season. And surely Zombieland 2 will outperform the original’s opening of $24m?

In terms of that game, that makes Jolie’s pricetag (ranging from $19 in Ultimate to $27 in both games) a bit of a risk, when you could get two mid-range films instead. And one of those could be the undead flick, whose prices in the August and Septmeber leagues are tempting, although in the October leagues ($16 in both) you’re going to need it to deliver more than my predicted results (7 T5 points, 2 PTA, 7 IMDB score, 80m cume). Stranger Things have happened.



BRAWL AT THE BOTTOM

And that’s not the only close fight of the weekend. Down in the limited releases you’ve got 4 fine fighters. Sadly, two of which we’re going to have to rule out, particularly when last weekend’s reigning champion Parasite broke all sorts of records.






So that means Greener Grass (IFC) and By the Grace of God (Music Box) aren’t really contenders. On another weekend they would have been worthy picks. The first is a debut from a comedy writing-directing duo who have received rave reviews for their offbeat and manic satire, but its an IFC Midnight flick so may not even report numbers. The second is a serious but well-regarded French drama from a legend of European cinema, Francois Ozon. But that just ain’t gonna cut it.

The real rumble is between Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) and The Lighthouse (A24).





Jojo has a lot going for it. It’s essentially a Wes Anderson flick, a quirky comedy dealing with a young Nazi who has Hitler for an imaginary friend (played by the film’s writer/director, New Zealander Taiki Waititi). The trailer is funny, and the cast is impressive (with support roles from Scarlett Johansson, Rebel Wilson, Sam Rockwell, and Alfie Allen). Initial reviews criticised the film’s mix of serious and humourous, but since then they have only gotten more positive. But more importantly, audiences adore it, giving it the prestigious main award in Toronto this year (previous winners include Green Book, Room, Three Billboards, La La Land, etc).

But coming up against it is hipper-than-thou label A24 with The Lighthouse, the latest from The Witch director Robert Eggers. This is a dark 19th Century tale about two men isolated on an island, working to maintain the titular lighthouse. Insanity ensues. Critics have been going gaga over this since its debut in Cannes, with praise lavished on lead Robert Pattinson, the new king of indie cinema (and if that raises your eyebrow, check out High Life and Good Time), as well as Willem Dafoe and his pirate accent. This is a dark, intense indie flick with some breakout potential, even if it’s in black-and-white and filmed in a square aspect ratio.

So who will win? Both films are coming out in a handful of theatres, but I suspect the audience-pleaser will win out, with The Lighthouse coming a close second. Though there’s always the chance Parasite will turn them both into kimchi. In terms of the game, Jojo will make more money ($20m is not unreasonable) but maybe less PTA in the long-run, and that still makes it worth its $5 in Ultimate and $2-3 in BO. The Lighthouse should win in IMDB and maybe PTA if it expands slower but $10m feels like its upper limit. So in that sense… ah, screw it, just pick up both!


Predictions for the weekend

1. Maleficent 2- $38m
2. Zombieland: Double Tap - $29m
3. Joker - $28m
4. The Addams Family - $15m
5. Gemini Man - $9m

PTA: Jojo Rabbit, The Lighthouse, Parasite, Maleficent, Zombieland 2


Next week the appropriately-named Spectre takes on the spooky Halloween weekend, stalking Countdown and Black & Blue, as well as indies The Current War, Western Stars, and Frankie.

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Screen203 »

I see JoJo Rabbit doing numbers like The Favorite, maybe a little higher. I think the premise will be a tough sell for audiences, but if the Academy likes it, the awards attention will help.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by transformers2 »

Parasite vs The Lighthouse is going to be an interesting showdown for the #2 PTA spot. Should both be in about 15-25 theaters, have stupid good reviews and are from directors that are darlings in arthouse circles. As down as I usually am on foreign films expanding in the states, I think the hype gives Parasite has a slight edge.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Theater counts:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil - 3,790
Zombieland 2: Double Tap - 3,468
Jojo Rabbit - 5



Next week:

Countdown - 2,600 (still haven't seen one ad for this thing)
Black and Blue - 2,000




Celebrity birthdays:

Dominic West turned 50 on 10/15
Bailee Madison turned 20 on 10/15
Norm MacDonald turned 60 on 10/17
Trey Parker turns 50 on 10/19
John Krasinski turns 40 on 10/20
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Sorry this is so late. My dad's been moved to hospice care and I'm spending every minute I can with him.



Friday estimates:

Maleficent, $12.5M
Zombieland 2, $10.5M
Joker, $8.6M
Addams Family, $4.1M
Gemini Man, $2.3M




Weekend Projections:

Maleficent, $37.5M
Joker, $29.7M
Zombieland 2, $25.6M
Addams Family, $17.7M
Gemini Man, $8.2M
Abominable, $3.8M
Downtown Abbey, $2.9M
Judy, $2M
Hustlers, $2M
It: Chapter 2, $1.5M
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Numbers two and three this week. I'm cool with that!
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by BanksIsDaFuture »

Sorry to hear about your dad, Shryke.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Chienfantome »

Yeah, no need to apologize about that Shryke, take care of your dad of course.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by numbersix »

That's tough, Shryke, we're sending you our good vibes!

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Dad passed this morning. Thank you all for your well-wishes and condolences.


Top 10:
5 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $36.0M
4 points - Joker, $29.2M
3 points - Zombieland 2: Double Tap, $26.7M
2 points - The Addams Family, $16.1M
1 point - Gemini Man, $8.5M
Abominable, $3.5M
Downton Abeey, $3.1M
Judy, $2.1M
Hustlers, $2.0M
It: Chapter 2, $1.5M


PTA:
5 points - Jojo Rabbit
4 points - The Lighthouse
3 points - Parasite
2 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1 point - Zombieland 2: Double Tap





Joker should hit $250M in the next couple of days.

It: Chapter 2 is just shy of $210M. Disappointment? Were we really expecting $300M from this?

Hustlers crosses $100M.

Downton Abbey should hit $90M by next weekend.

Addams Family looks poised to hit at least $80M.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Buscemi2 »

Quick question: could Lucy in the Sky be the year's biggest flop in terms of return percentages? The film cost $27 million to produce and I'd imagine another $10-15 million to promote (for some reason, it added theatres this week, suggesting that Fox and Disney spent even more). To date, the film has only made $272,095, about 1% of the production budget.

It is also Disney's lowest grossing film in nine years.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Screen203 »

Shrykespeare wrote:Dad passed this morning. Thank you all for your well-wishes and condolences.
So sorry for your loss. Don't worry about running behind on anything, take any time you need. Wish there was more I could do besides giving my condolences.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Shrykespeare »

You guys are the best. But doing "normal" things is how I get through this. Including dealing with you lunatics. :lol:
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by transformers2 »

Sorry for your loss Shryke. I can't even begin to fathom what losing a parent feels like, but you're in my thoughts pal.
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Re: SIX TIPS, OR HOW TO PLEASE YOUR SLATE – THE FILMS OF 10/

Post by Shrykespeare »

Weekend Actuals

Top 10:
5 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $36.9M (5)
4 points - Joker, $29.3M (14)
3 points - Zombieland 2: Double Tap, $26.8M (3)
2 points - The Addams Family, $16.3M (6)
1 point - Gemini Man, $8.3M (4)
Abominable, $3.5M
Downton Abeey, $3.1M
Judy, $2.1M
Hustlers, $2.0M
It: Chapter 2, $1.5M


PTA:
5 points - Jojo Rabbit, $69,911 (5)
4 points - The Lighthouse, $53.475 (4)
3 points - Parasite, $37,616 (8)
2 points - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, $9,749 (2)
1 point - Zombieland 2: Double Tap, $7,729 (1)

Note: The Jay & Silent Bob Reboot, though not in the game, had the highest PTA at $93,520.

Greener Grass just missed at $7,057. By the Grace of God only managed $3,883.
Happy 60th birthday Jet Li! (4/26/23)

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