Tranny Tackles the Cinema: The Films of 10/11

[transformers2]

For the second straight year, a new October box office record has been set.

Controversy, curiosity and even a bit of awards buzz powered Joker to a very impressive $93.5 mil opening, which topped previous recordholder Venom's $80.2 mil haul on the same weekend 12 months ago. This was exactly the kind of triumph Warner Brothers needed to salvage some of the brutal losses they've taken in 2019 and with audiences responding much better than expected to this unorthodox take on the origins of an iconic villain, the possibility of a leggier run that would further help their bottom line seems likely.

On the limited front, Pain and Glory easily won the weekend with an excellent $38,159 PTA . This marked Pedro Almodovar's best opening since 2006's Volver and considering how overwhelmingly positive the reception has been, this should continue to thrive-even with the mighty Parasite opening this weekend.

Lucy in the Sky wasn't as fortunate as the weekend's other openers. While Noah Hawley's space drama was undeniably doomed as soon as it got savaged by critics following its premiere at Toronto last month, its $1,461 OW PTA was still a bit of a shock. A Fox Searchlight project starring Natalie Portman, Jon Hamm and Zazie Beetz can't even manage to top the per screen averages of It: Chapter Two (in its fifth weekend) and Hustlers (in its fourth weekend)? Even for a movie boasting the type of scathing reviews it received, that's truly unbelievable to me. Luckily for Disney's prestige arm, Jojo Rabbit and A Hidden Life should be more than enough to promptly remove the stink that Lucy in the Sky has left on the lot.

Wide Releases:
Ever wonder what happens when you make a person out of another person? Well, fear not because Gemini Man (Paramount) is here to answer that very question that has kept scholars up at night for centuries. This sci-fi actioner from Ang Lee features present Day Will Smith as an accomplished assassin who is being hunted by a creepy CGI younger version of himself. The reasons for this hit aren't overly clear in the marketing, but Clive Owen plays a shady shot caller for the titular Gemini organization that orders the kill on old man Smith, so it probably involves him knowing too about the inner workings of their operation.

Gemini Man has long been touted as a technical spectacle that needs to be on the big screen by Smith and Lee-who shot the film in the high frame rate 3D format he's been championing for years. Unfortunately for Lee, this isn't receiving the acclaim he typically generates as early reviews have largely dismissed this as a hollow, generic action flick that can't be saved by its cutting edge effects/technology. A negative-to-mixed critical consensus likely won't be enough to sink the OW of a Smith-led blockbuster vehicle with a clear, gimmicky hook that Paramount has pushed pretty aggressively, but highly enthusiastic WOM is the only chance Gemini Man has of reaching the $70-85 mil some tracking services believe its capable of making.
Prediction: $19-30 mil OW/2-7 Top 5/1-6 PTA/low to mid 6 IMDb/$45-75 mil overall BO
Price (OCT-DEC): $16 ULT/$16 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: No x2


2019 has provided all sorts of box office surprises. The Secret Life of Pets 2 made over $200 mil less than its predecessor. Angel Has Fallen managed to outgross London Has Fallen. Cold Pursuit failed to clear $500 mil domestic. Okay, maybe that last one wasn't a shock. Could The Addams Family (MGM/United Artists) be the next movie that defies whatever passes as a logical forecast in this unpredictable industry? Possibly, yes.

When the teaser came out in the spring, I expected this to be a complete non-starter. The animation looked cheap as hell, the IP isn't exactly well known among people that are younger than 25 and MGM/United Artists is arguably more difficult to trust than any other studio that handles wide releases on a regular basis. That all changed when the release date got closer. Abominable, which is the only family-friendly movie currently out, had a relatively modest opening (just over $20 mil) and the industry tracking climbed into the $20-30 mil range. I'm still not positive that MGM/United Artists won't find a way to fuck this up or that next week's Maleficent: Mistress of Evil won't spoil its long-term prospects, but its status as the month's lone film that appeals to kids of all ages paired with its Halloween theme might prove to be enough to make this a much-needed sleeper hit for this struggling distribution conglomerate.

Prediction: $21-33 mil OW/3-9 Top 5/1-4 PTA/low to mid 5 IMDb/$55-85 mil overall BO
Price (SEP-NOV): $14 ULT/$15 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: The sleeper potential is very real, but I can't give it a glowing recommendation in such a crowded part of the calendar.


Despite churning out a pair of successful titles (Five Feet Apart, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark) in 2019, CBS Films will be pivoting to producing streaming titles after this year. Their swan song (at least for now) in the theatrical realm, Jexi (Lionsgate), doesn't feel like it has what it takes to end their run on another positive box office result. The concept of a lonely man being terrorized by his phone's A.I. is amusing and Jon Lucas and Scott Moore are comedy veterans that have been involved in several hits over the years. However, it kind of seems like a dump given that it was quietly dropped on the calendar a couple of months back and despite Good Boys recently proving that the genre can still bring in an audience, I still don't believe that there's a widespread thirst for R-rated comedies right now. Expect something closer to 21 and Over than Bad Moms here.

Prediction: $4-9 mil OW/0-2 Top 5/0-1 PTA/high 5 to low 6 IMDb/$9-22 mil overall BO
Price (SEP-NOV): $6 ULT/$5 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: Don't think so.


Limited Release:
Prestige season is in full swing folks! Bong Joon-Ho's latest, Parasite (Neon), is without question near the top of every cinephiles must-see list for September-December. Naturally with the colossal buzz this darkly comedic thriller has earned since it won the Palm D'or at Cannes in May and subsequently broke South Korean box office records, it seems bound to post a huge opening that at least matches, if not surpasses last weekend's debut of Pain and Glory. The problem is that Neon is notorious for overly fast expansions (the fact that it's opening in Boston next week leads me to believe that this will not be a slow rollout like the one I, Tonya received in 2017) and the presence of those pesky subtitles that scare the hell out of most American audiences is all but guaranteed to put a cap on how much this earns at the BO. Throw in a whopping $5 ULT price tag and you have yourself the rare title with a crazy good pedigree that might not be worth taking.
Prediction: $175-325K OW/5-11 PTA/low to mid 8 IMDb/$3-8 mil overall BO
Price (OCT-DEC): $5 ULT/$2 BO
Worth Putting on Your Slate?: $5 is super pricey for a limited release isn't in English, but Parasite could ultimately prove to be worth that hefty investment.


Weekend Projections:
1.Joker $37 mil
2.The Addams Family $26 mil
3.Gemini Man $24 mil
4.Abominable $7.5 mil
5.Jexi $6.5 mil

PTA:Parasite, Pain and Glory, Gemini Man, The Addams Family, Joker

Tune in next week when six breaks down a loaded slate that includes a pair of mainstream sequels, A24's latest acclaimed indie horror flick and Taika Waititi's polarizing WWII satire.

[Screen203]

Gemini Man has seemed like a flop for a while now - wouldn't be suprised with a sub 50 million total.

[numbersix]

I'd go a little lower on both of those wide films. Gemini Man needed good reviews and it's being slated. It'll open to around 20m if it's lucky. And Addams Family may be a cartoon with some recognition, but I don't trust UA at the moment. They must be suffering. Again, I'm thinking close to $20m.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It sucks that Gemini Man won't be screened anywhere in the whole damn country in 3D 120FPS 4K. You'd think Ang Lee and the studio would make sure people can see it as intended before spending all the money to shoot it that way.

The best available is 3D 60FPS 4K and that's only in 14 theaters in the country. Everything else is 3D 60 FPS.

Also, maybe don't waste that on a lame action movie idea literally from the 90s.

[numbersix]

If only 14 screens are doing the film in 4K, what are the rest of the screens projecting it at? 4K is the standard theatrical resolution, no?

[Buscemi2]

Odd that Gemini Man isn't being screened anywhere in 120fps. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk at least got two theatres in the US to run it that way.

[Screen203]

I thought the main selling point of Gemini Man was the advanced frame rate?

When I look at showtimes for the movie, I see something about "3D+", which I assumed was 120 FPS.

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Everything but the 14 theaters will show it in 2K. And at 60 FPS, not 120 FPS.

60 FPS is still considered HFR, which is why theaters can advertise it as such. Nowhere in America has it at 120.

[numbersix]

Ah okay, I thought most were 4K. Those cinemas need to upgrade considering even the low budget indies are shooting on 4K (although we often crop to improve the framing)

[Buscemi2]

Speaking of HFR, I wonder if any theatres ran Aquarela in the original 96fps. The US trailer advertised select theatres but that it would only be run in theatres with Dolby Atmos.

[Buscemi2]

Cinemascores:

The Addams Family: B+ (comparisons include all three Hotel Transylvanias: A-, Addams Family Values: B+, The Addams Family (1991): B-)
Gemini Man: B+ (comparisons include I, Robot: A-, Face/Off: B+, Suicide Squad: B+, Hulk: B-)
Jexi: B- (comparisons include Bad Moms: A, The Hangover: A, A Bad Moms Christmas: B, Her: B-)

[Shrykespeare]

Theater counts:

The Addams Family - 4,007
Gemini Man - 3,642
Jexi - 2,332
Parasite - 3



Next week:

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil - 3,700
Zombieland: Double Tap - 3,400
Jojo Rabbit - 5





Celebrity birthdays:

Simon Cowell turned 60 on 10/7
Dylan Baker turned 60 on 10/7
Paul Hogan turned 80 on 10/8
Sigourney Weaver turned 70 on 10/8
Kristanna Loken turned 40 on 10/8
Brandon Routh turned 40 on 10/9
Aimee Teegarden turned 30 on 10/10
Stephen Moyer turned 50 on 10/11
Marie Osmond turns 60 on 10/13
Nell Tiger Free turns 20 on 10/13

[Shrykespeare]

Friday estimates

Joker, $17M
Addams Family, $9.7M
Gemini Man, $7.5M
Abominable, $1.7M
Downton Abbey, $1.5M
Hustlers, $1.2M
Jexi, $1.1M




Weekend Projections

Joker, $60.2M
Addams Family, $33M
Gemini Man, $19.9M
Abominable, $7.7M
Downton Abbey, $4.9M
Hustlers, $3.8M
It: Chapter 2, $3.4M
Judy, $3.3M
Jexi, $2.9M
Ad Astra, $2M

[numbersix]

That's an incredible hold for Joker

[Screen203]

Not sure if Joker will hit that number. It's had great weekdays, but that's likely because of the headlines about security issues.