SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 7/2, 7/4

[Shrykespeare]

Despite horrible reviews, Transformers: Age of Extinction achieved the largest OW of any film this year, pulling in $100M and easily taking first place at the box office. 22 Jump Street once again finished ahead of How to Train Your Dragon 2, pulling in $15M and $13M respectively. Last week’s champion Think Like a Man Too plummeted 64% to fourth place with only $10M, and Maleficent copped yet another Top 5 point (that makes sixteen total), crossing the $200M plateau with yet another $8M. On the PTA front, romantic drama Begin Again beat out Transformers for the title, while the highly-selected indie film Snowpiercer took third in that category.

Sigh. After a disappointing first half of the summer season, things are going to start to look bleaker and bleaker. In the past decade, July has housed some of the best films the Summer Season has had to offer. Here are some examples:

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003), $305M
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (2006), $423M
Transformers (2007), $319M
The Dark Knight (2008), $533M
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009), $302M
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011), $381M
The Dark Knight Rises (2012), $448M
Despicable Me 2 (2013), $368M

So since 2000, that’s eight films released within the calendar month of July that have eclipsed $300M. Eight others have broken $200M, and thirty-six others were able to break the $100M mark. That’s fifty-two blockbusters in thirteen years, all with July release dates, an average of four per year. And looking down the list of July movie this year, how many guaranteed blockbusters are there? One. Only one. And that is just sad.

The movie I am referring to, of course, is Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which has the potential to dominate a crowded but anemic field of competitors, starting next week. But I’ll get to that then. For now, I have four films to talk about, three of which will be opening in wide release starting Wednesday, July 2. There are no action movies in this bunch: rather, we have an adult comedy, a kids’ adventure film, and a horror movie. Sigh.

First up is Tammy (Warner Bros.), a raunchy comedy starring the current queen of raunchy comedies, Melissa McCarthy. Ever since her prominent role in the smash 2011 hit Bridesmaids, McCarthy has become a major star. She had a terrific 2013, leading both Identity Thief and The Heat to outstanding numbers (both broke $130M), and also had a role in a third blockbuster, The Hangover Part III. Between these films and her hit TV show Mike & Molly, there probably is no more bankable a female comedic actress than McCarthy.

In Tammy, which marks the directorial debut of Ben Falcone, McCarthy plays the titular Tammy, who is having the worst day of her life. After totaling her car and getting fired from her lousy burger-joint job, she comes home to find her husband inflagrante delecto with a neighbor. Wanting nothing more than to escape but not having the means to do so, she ends up hooking up with her grandmother Pearl (Susan Sarandon), who has a car, spending cash… and an itch to see Niagara Falls. So, yeah, it’s a road trip comedy featuring two of Hollywood’s finest, during which I’m sure many classic road-trip cliché hijinks will present themselves. Kathy Bates, Allison Janney, Dan Aykroyd (good to see him again!), Gary Cole, Sandra Oh, Mark Duplass and Toni Collette co-star.

It would seem to be a foolhardy idea to bet against McCarthy at this point, but I would advise some caution before selecting Tammy ($21 in both July leagues). The first reason is that one could argue that all of the blockbusters McCarthy has taken part in could give equal consideration to McCarthy’s co-stars (Kristen Wiig, Jason Bateman, Sandra Bullock), all of which had equal or larger parts. And while Sarandon is a famous and capable actress, she’s hardly on the same level she once was back in the Bull Durham/Thelma & Louise days. The #1 question has to be: can McCarthy carry this film all on her own? It may be that moviegoers will start to tire of her playing the same slovenly, obnoxious characters the whole time.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that comedies with “adult themes” have excelled this year when all other genres have tanked (or at least disappointed). In the past few months, films like The Other Woman, Neighbors and 22 Jump Street have delighted audiences everywhere. And if this trend continues, it could bode well both for Tammy and for Sex Tape (coming in two weeks). It is also worth noting that apart from August’s Let’s Be Cops, there are no other straight-up comedies being released this summer. (And So It Goes will not open wide enough to make more than a minor splash.)

I will predict $24M for Tammy’s OW, and $41M for its first five days. Even if Transformers drops 70%, that will still only be good enough for #2. So for $21, I envision eight Top 5, six PTA and $94M overall. That is rather less than McCarthy’s past hits, and it’s why I cannot recommend it for your slates.




Horror can be a tricky genre to predict. Films in this category are usually cheap to make, do not feature more than one or two recognizable actors, and on occasion can break out and become huge hits. In the past few years, titles like Sinister, The Conjuring and the two Insidious films have broken through and become hits. However, for every big horror hit there are five failures, and 2014 is still waiting for its first big moneymaker in this genre. Perhaps it will have it in Deliver Us From Evil (Sony/Screen Gems), which was written and directed by Sinister helmer Scott Derrickson.

Like many horror films of late, Deliver Us From Evil is based on true events. The central character is New York street cop Ralph Sarchie (Eric Bana), who is tasked with solving a series of disturbing and inexplicable crimes. He teams up with a rather unconventional Castilian priest named Mendoza (Edgar Ramirez), who is convinced that the crimes are demonically related. This unlikely duo must work together to solve the case and combat the paranormal forces working against them. Olivia Munn and Joel McHale co-star.

The only horror film this year that was able to even break $30M was the year’s leadoff hitter, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, and it only achieved that because there was little else to choose from at the time. Everything that has followed (Devil’s Due, Oculus, The Quiet Ones) has singularly failed to find an audience. Can Deliver Us From Evil break the long dry spell? Honestly, it might. Horror enthusiasts have been waiting for months for something, ANYTHING, to tempt them into theaters, and with little or nothing in this genre in the near future, they may decide en masse to use Deliver Us From Evil to scratch that itch, regardless of how good the film is.

For this reason, I will predict an OW of $18M ($27M five-day), which could be a lowball estimate or a severe overestimate, depending on your opinion of horror films. The film is reasonably priced ($12 in both leagues), but I still can’t recommend it. It won’t make it to $50M, and it will only get four Top 5 points at the most, especially if it’s as front-loaded as most horror tends to be. I’ll say three PTA and $46M, and move on.




Last up for the wide releases is Earth to Echo (Relativity), a sci-fi adventure film from newbie director Dave Green. It tells the story of a trio of inseparable friends, teenagers Tuck (Teo Halm), Alex (Brian “Astro” Bradley) and Munch (Reese Hartwig), whose families are in a crisis because their neighborhoods are scheduled for demolition by a highway construction project, and the buddies are on the verge of being forced to go their separate ways. One day, however, they begin receiving bizarre signals on their cell phones, and with the help of a school-friend, Emma (Emma Wahlestedt), they are able to track the signals to their source: a small but friendly alien they name “Echo”, who is trapped on Earth. Using Echo’s incredible otherworldly powers, the friends must find a way to protect themselves and their homes while helping Echo to return home.

Okay, here’s is what I’m thinking: it seems like screenwriter Henry Gayden tried to tell a similar yet modernized version of Spielberg’s E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, tweaking just enough of the details to make it not a completely cloned copy. Small, cute alien with magical powers? Check. A bunch of teenage protectors? Check. Government baddies? Check (I think). Will Earth to Echo enjoy the same level of success as E.T.? Not a chance in hell.

It may happen that this film becomes immensely popular in its post-theater life, because it’s the kind of film that young teens and preteens love, but those numbers don’t concern us as far as this game goes. For this game, where Earth to Echo will run you only $8 (in both leagues), I think it will give you only three Top 5 points, two PTA, an OW of $14M ($21M five-day) and $34M overall. Echo has so much more competition than E.T. ever did, and there is a lot still left on the summer roster to eat up teenagers’ bucks (Planes: Fire and Rescue, Hercules, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, not to mention Guardians of the Galaxy). Pass on this one.




As long as there have been films, there have been film critics. Before the days of bloggers and the Internet, moviegoers often relied heavily on what critics had to say about a film before jaunting to the nearest cinema to see it. But in history, few film critics ever became world-renowned, and Roger Ebert was one of those. Ebert began his work as the film critic for the Chicago Sun Times newspaper in 1967, but it was in 1986, when he teamed with fellow Chicago film critic Gene Siskel to do a weekly television program called Siskel & Ebert At the Movies that he became internationally famous.

Ebert’s life’s story, which is based on his 2011 memoir Life Itself, has been turned into a documentary by noted filmmaker Steve James (Hoop Dreams), which chronicles not only Ebert’s early years and his partnerships with fellow critics Siskel and Richard Roeper (who took over after Siskel’s death in 1999) but his battle with cancer, which ultimately claimed his life in April of 2013. I dare say it is the kind of film where you will learn many things you may not have known about one of the most influential people in the industry for the past century.

Critics have adored this film (and why wouldn’t they, as it honors one of their own), which premiered at Sundance earlier this year. I’m not sure if moviegoers are as het up to know Ebert’s life story as critics are, but I’ll give Life Itself (Magnolia) the benefit of the doubt. I think that it this film will win the PTA crown going away (it will only need about $7,000 at most to beat the other films debuting this week), and may grab as many as eight or nine before its done… though I would probably take it only in July leagues ($4 Ult), because that way you won’t have to care about what holdovers like Transformers, Begin Again and Snowpiercer do. Given its theater count (twenty-four, according to the film’s official website), that’s the best advice I can offer you.




My predictions for the weekend of July 4-6, 2014:

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction - $43 million
2. Tammy - $24 million
3. Deliver Us From Evil - $18 million
4. Earth to Echo - $14 million
5. 22 Jump Street – $9 million

PTA (May/Jun): Begin Again, Transformers, Life Itself, Tammy, Snowpiercer

PTA (Jul): Life Itself, Tammy, Deliver Us From Evil, Earth to Echo

Current RT/IMDb scores:

Tammy – N/A, N/A
Deliver Us From Evil – N/A, N/A
Earth to Echo – 60% (3/5 positive), 6.0 (304 votes)
Life Itself – 95% (20/21 positive), 8.1 (213 votes)

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, only one major film is on the roster, and it’s a big one: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, one of the summer’s last few major selling points, will hit theaters. In limited release will be Boyhood, the latest drama from Richard Linklater, as well as Spanish/Mexican drama The Empty Hours and Icelandic comedy Land Ho!

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Jamie Farr (M*A*S*H) turns 80 on 7/1
Yeardley Smith (The Simpsons) turns 50 on 7/3
Eva Marie Saint (On the Waterfront, North By Northwest) turns 90 on 7/4

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

Deliver Us From Evil. The Conjuring, it ain't...

I'm starting to realize Tammy might be the end of flawless Melissa McCarthy, if only because besides the overused robbery scene, this movie has little to no comedy to showcase. The Heat was genuinely funny and Identity Theft had marketing that implied lots of humor, at least.

1. Transf4mers - $40M
2. Tammy - $20M
3. Deliver Us From Evil - $17M
4. 22 Jump St - $9M
5. Earth To Echo - $8M

[numbersix]

If Identity Thief did so well, I'm sure Tammy is just as critic-proof. And considering the weekend that it is, surely it's accessible fare for the right audience. The other two films I'm not so sure on, particularly the horror film. With its cast it certainly doesn't feel like another The Conjuring. Think a 50m cume is the best it can hope for.

As for PTA, Life Itself should do very well. Ebert was loved and the good reviews will make it last.

1. Transfomers 4 - $40M (55m 5-day)
2. Tammy - $25M (34m 5-day)
3. Deliver Us From Evil - $16M (22m 5-day)
4. 22 Jump St - $9M (13m 5-day)
5. Earth To Echo - $7M (10m 5-day)

[BrocksterDuex]

can McCarthy carry this film all on her own?

Nope

[Walleye413]

Gotta say I don't understand the massive dislike for McCarthy I've heard. I think she's easily one of the funniest people in film right now. She is so committed to a character that audiences, myself included, are simply drawn in to her enthusiasm and just enjoy the ride. Tammy may not be her biggest hit, for many of the reasons stated above, but I for one am looking forward to a good laugh, and she always provides me with that.

[numbersix]

Tracking from MTC (it's 4-day, Thurs-Sun, for some reason)...

Tammy: 29m
Deliver: 15m
Echo: 9m

[undeadmonkey]

its because of independence day

[numbersix]

But Independence Day is Friday, and the films are being released tomorrow, on Wednesday. So why track in the middle? It's just a little odd.

[Shrykespeare]

Official Theater Counts:

Tammy - 3,465
Earth to Echo - 3,230
Deliver Us From Evil - 3,045

[Chienfantome]

Overall we're in for a disappointing 4th of July, box-office wise.

[numbersix]

Yep. this could really be a crucial moment for Hollywood, the point at which things must change.

Or else Guardians of the Galaxy is going to exceed expectations and Hollywood will just become Marvel Vs DC.

[Chienfantome]

Problem is this kind of weekend only comforts them in that whole "Let's focus on superhero movies and sequels". It's one of those rare weekends when there's 3 wide releases that are neither superhero films or franchise films, and they're all gonna disappoint.

[Shrykespeare]

A small part of me might be okay with that.


As far as the game goes, this really serves as an equalizer. You really don't know - well, you never knew before, but now this seems doubly true - just what is going to happen. The way the big movies have been disappointing have been almost uniform. It sure makes pricing movies more challenging, and picking a winning slate even more so.

I'm sure many people will be picking Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for their July slates simply because there's nothing else to choose from, but for the July-August season you might as well be throwing darts.

[Walleye413]

Problem is this kind of weekend only comforts them in that whole "Let's focus on superhero movies and sequels". It's one of those rare weekends when there's 3 wide releases that are neither superhero films or franchise films, and they're all gonna disappoint.

This is very much my fear.

[JohnErle]

Problem is this kind of weekend only comforts them in that whole "Let's focus on superhero movies and sequels".

If that ever happens, at least I'll finally get around to all those books I've been meaning to read.

It's one of those rare weekends when there's 3 wide releases that are neither superhero films or franchise films, and they're all gonna disappoint.

They may not be sequels, remakes, or franchise films, but this weekend's movies are a road trip about a fat dummy who falls down a lot and a cussy grandma, a generic cop movie/exorcism movie, and a found footage rip-off of E.T., so if they fail it won't be because of an excess of originality.