SPEARE'S TIPS - The Films of 3/9/12

[Shrykespeare]

To the surprise of several, Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax overcame ho-hum reviews and ho-hummer word of mouth to race to a $70.7 million OW this past weekend, achieving the third-highest March opening in history, falling just inches short of 300 ($70.8 million) and way behind Alice in Wonderland ($116.1 million). Project X finished a respectable second with over $20 million of its own, and among the limited releases, it was Boy that edged Being Flynn for the #2 spot in that category (with The Lorax taking first).

It would seem that in 2012, all it takes to at least put up decent numbers is a decent ad campaign and a reasonable release platform. Case in point: of the twenty-six films released so far this year in 1,000 theaters or more, all but six have at least achieved $20 million in total earnings. Eleven have eclipsed $50 million in earnings (with three others on the cusp), and there have been two blockbusters. All of these numbers are improvements over last year. I’ll say it again… this bodes very well for summer.

Believe it or not, it was exactly 100 years ago that well-known author Edgar Rice Burroughs created the character of John Carter, in a series of pulp novels known as Barsoom. Amazingly enough, those stories have never been adapted into a feature film until now, though they have served as inspiration for such literary and cinematic works as Dune and Star Wars. Many directors over the years have been given the opportunity to head such an adaptation but passed. Finally, a full century after its creation, the story of John Carter (Buena Vista) will finally hit theaters, led by director Andrew Stanton, who is making his first foray into live action after helming Pixar films like Finding Nemo, A Bug’s Life and WALL-E.

Based largely on A Princess of Mars, the story that spawned the title character, John Carter (Friday Night Lights'Taylor Kitsch) is a former Civil War captain who is mysteriously transported to the Red Planet, which he learns is dying from the loss of its atmosphere and water. In order to avoid extinction, Carter must find a way to forge an alliance between the planet’s varied and volatile inhabitants to achieve that goal. Having the unique ability to apparently leap tall buildings in a single bound makes John a force to be reckoned with, to be sure. Thomas Haden Church, Willem Dafoe, Samantha Morton, Lynn Collins, Ciaran Hinds and the ubiquitous Mark Strong also co-star.

The trailer really does make the film look cool, but the same could be said for Sucker Punch, Clash of the Titans and Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones… and now we all know better regarding those films, don’t we? Still, the early reviews for John Carter have been favorable so far (11/15 positive on RT), which should count for something, but if John Carter can even manage half of the box office that Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol (which was led by another Pixar director doing his first-ever live-action film, Brad Bird) did, I would be very surprised. The reported budget for John Carter was $250 million, and it will take a strong international following just to make that back, I reckon.

Set to debut in over 3,500 theaters, I predict an OW of $30 million for John Carter’s first three days, which should put it securely in second place, well behind The Lorax’s second week. With only two wide-release films coming in the next two weeks, it could hang around in the Top 5 for a while… say, nine Top 5 points, two PTA, a Rating in the mid-to-high 6’s and $85 million. For the large price tag of $26 in Ultimate ($27 in Box Office), I would give John Carter a thumbs-down for any league but Bankrupts.




Up next is Silent House (Open Road Films), a horror film from the directors of the surprise 2003 hit Open Water, Chris Kentis and Laura Lau. Based on true events (which were also relayed in a 2010 Uruguayan film of the same name), the film features rising star Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene) as Sarah, a girl who goes through ninety minutes of pure hell when she becomes trapped inside her family’s lakeside retreat with no means of escape, and with an unseen killer trapped inside with her.

In an interesting filming quirk, Silent House is shown in real-time, as one long, unbroken, 90-minute take. I’m not sure that’s ever been done before, but kudos to Kentis and Lau for using it. Critics have taken to the film for the most part: many laud the way the film’s unique cinematography succeeds in ratcheting up the tension, taking the classic spooky-house theme and adding another layer to it. It currently sports a 75% score on RT (on 6/8 positive), and I have seen trailers and commercials everywhere, which can only help.

Silent House is the first pure horror film since The Woman in Black one month ago, and there won’t be another until mid-April. The Woman in Black took a nearly 3,000-theater release platform and ran with it to a $20 million opening (just barely losing to Chronicle). Referencing Open Water, which, after spending two weeks in limited release, was able to scare up an $11 million weekend and finish with $30 million overall. Those latter numbers seem like an ideal parallel for Silent House which, though it is only opening in just over 2,000 locations, has had terrific advertising, and that should make up some of the difference.

For only $8 (in both leagues), I envision a $12 million OW, on its way to four Top 5 points, a rating in the low 5’s (currently at 5.4 with 500 votes) and $26 million overall. It’s a tougher call than John Carter, but I would still give Silent House a marginal thumbs-down.




I think we can all agree, Tower Heist was a welcome return to comedic form for Eddie Murphy, who has spent the better part of a decade (discounting the Shrek movies) making films so bad that not even he could save them. Maybe from this point on, he will make smarter decisions. Until then, however, we are stuck with A Thousand Words (Paramount), a low-grade comedy that, to be fair, was actually filmed before Tower Heist and has been sitting on a shelf for a long time up till now.

Director Brian Robbins (who helmed the godawful Murphy vehicles Norbit and Meet Dave) is in the big chair for this one, which features Murphy as Jack McCall, a fast-talking literary agent who one day runs afoul of a New Age guru (Cliff Curtis), who promptly puts a curse on him. The curse take the shape of a magical Bodhi tree in Jack’s backyard, a tree that sports exactly one thousand leaves. Jack is told that a leaf will fall every time he utters a word, and that the consequences could be dire for him should he run out. From there, Jack must learn to cope with having to communicate in non-verbal ways, and presumably learn a valuable lesson along the way. Kerry Washington, Clark Duke and Allison Janney co-star.

It’s an interesting concept, to be sure, but sadly, nothing about the film makes it look like anything more than another lame vehicle for Murphy’s typical, wisecracking shtick. With only 1,500 theaters that will be showcasing it, I expect A Thousand Words will join the increasing list of flops with Murphy as the top biller. I predict a $6 million OW, on its way to no Top 5, no PTA, a horrible Rating and about $15 million total. Modestly priced at $7 in Ultimate ($8 in Box Office), this is about as picture-perfect a Bankrupts pick as you could ask for.




By now, you may be wondering if anything this weekend may be worth taking in the non-Bankrupts Ultimate leagues. But fret not, as all three of this week’s limited-release films look infinitely better than the three wide-release films. Here’s a little bit about those films:

Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (CBS Films) ($6 Ult) – This British romantic comedy-drama comes from noteworthy Swedish director Lasse Hallström (Chocolat, The Cider House Rules, Dear John). Based on the novel of the same name by author Paul Torday and shot on location in London, Scotland and Morocco, Salmon Fishing will be debuting in 15 theaters this Friday.

The film stars Ewan McGregor as Fred Jones, a fisheries scientiest who becomes reluctantly involved in a project to introduce salmon to the highlands of the Middle Eastern country of Yemen, at the behest of the local sheikh, Muhammad (Amr Waked), who came to adore the pastime of fishing while in Scotland. While attempting to make the impossible possible, Fred realizes he has a chance to change not only British political history but the course of his own life as well. Emily Blunt and Kristin Scott Thomas also co-star.

Fifteen theaters is still within reasonable limits for a potential PTA champ, and between the positive reviews, the cast and strong WOM, I predict Salmon Fishing in the Yemen will take home no fewer than three PTA points on this weekend. It’s priced rather high at $6, but for that, you will also get a very decent Rating (currently at 7.3 with over 400 votes), and there is a small possibility that it will hang on for additional points next week. In this season, PTA champs are hard to pick, but this seems as likely as any.




Friends With Kids (Roadside Attractions) ($4 Ult) – This is the directorial debut for actress/screenwriter Jennifer Westfeldt (Kissing Jessica Stein), and it stars an ensemble cast of comedic actors on the level of last summer’s surprise hit Bridesmaids. The story revolves around a pair of best friends (Westfeldt, Adam Scott) who decide to have a child together while keeping their relationship platonic. Yeah, that’ll work… Also in the cast are Kristen Wiig, Jon Hamm (Westfeldt’s current real-life beau), Maya Rudolph, Chris O’Dowd, Edward Burns and Megan Fox.

The trailer below is hysterical, which makes me wish that this film was being released wide. Following the smash success of Bridesmaids, it could easily fill up however many theaters are showing it. It’s gotten terrific reviews so far (6/6 positive) and has a decent Rating for a rom-com (6.3 with 1,300 votes), so I certainly couldn’t fault you for taking it. However, it’s rare that an American comedy, even one with a cast like this, becomes a PTA giant, so be warned.




Footnote (Sony Classics) ($3 Ult) – This Hebrew-language film was one of the four that recently lost out to A Separation in the Best Foreign Language Film category at the Oscars. It chronicles the rivalry between two professors of Talmudic studies, Eliezer and Uriel Shkolnick (Shlomo Bar-Aba and Lior Ashkenazi), who also happen to be father and son. Their relationship becomes even more complicated when Uriel starts to receive huge praise for his work, and when a phone call informing Uriel about a coveted prize he has won is relayed to Eliezer by mistake… well, oy vey is all I can say.

Of this week’s films, Footnote certainly has the best pedigree. Not only was it an Oscar nominee, but it also won nine awards at Israel’s version of the Oscars as well as the award for Best Screenplay at last year’s Cannes Film Festival, it’s been showcased at numerous other festivals, it’s been nearly universally lauded by critics (8/9 positive at RT), and it is opening this Friday in New York only (it will expand to Los Angeles next week). If the price tag of Salmon Fishing daunts you a little bit, take Footnote; it’s exactly the kind of film that could jump up and surprise everybody. Be one of the few people on the block to take a gamble on it.




My predictions for the weekend of March 9-11, 2012:

1. The Lorax - $40 million
2. John Carter - $30 million
3. Silent House - $12 million
4. Project X - $11 million
5. Act of Valor - $7 million
6. A Thousand Words - $6 million

Well, that will do it for me for another week. Next week, March 16th will herald the release of five new films, including: 21 Jump Street, an update of the 80’s TV show starring Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill; as well as limited-release films Jeff Who Lives at Home, Casa de mi Padre (a Spanish-language movie starring Will Ferrell, if you can believe it), Detachment, and The Kid With a Bike.

Celebrities with milestone birthdays this week:

Shaquille O’Neal (NBA star) (40 on 3/6)
Emily Osment (Spy Kids 2 and 3) (20 on 3/10)
Thora Birch (American Beauty) (30 on 3/11)

Later!

[BanksIsDaFuture]

It makes zero sense for Lionsgate to release Friends With Kids limited. It would've done great on this weekend, in 2,000 theaters or more.

And I'm liking Silent House's chances more and more. Only horror film, with a great trailer and starring the good Olsen.

[Buscemi]

Friends With Kids would have bombed wide. None of the leads (outside of maybe Wiig) can sell a film on their own, the film looks a vanity project for Westfeldt (who was last in a film people actually saw ten years ago) and Fox and Burns are box office poison. Opening in what looks like 100-200 theatres (a lot of mid-sized markets are getting it), I'll say a $3,000 PTA.

I'll say $5 million on Silent House. Tracking is not good and it's too artsy for a wide audience.

[Buscemi]

RS tracking

John Carter: mid 50's
Silent House: low double digits
A Thousand Words: low single digits

MTC predictions should come in a few days (last few weeks have had Silent House and A Thousand Words with similar numbers).

[BanksIsDaFuture]

None of the leads in Bridesmaids could open a movie either, and look what happened there.

Mid-50s on John Carter is hilarious, btw.

[Buscemi]

Bridesmaids was sold on Apatow though. Friends With Kids doesn't have a producer with name appeal.

[numbersix]

This will be an interesting weekend. Will it continue the astounding box office boost, or will it prove that poor product = empty cinemas? (that said, I'm sure any number of the films that succeeded, whether it's Contraband or Act of Valor, could be considered "poor" on an aesthetic level).

I could be very wrong but I'm going to go with my gut. I think John Carter has a limited audience. It's utterly silly trailer makes me think it's more of a 12-year old boy film than a film with crossover potential (I intially thought Avatar-meets-Attack of the Clones when I saw the trailer). Hell, even Wrath of the Titans looks better than this! But, it does at least smell like a blockbuster, so I'm sure it'll get some asses on seats.

As for the other two wide films, the theatre count of Silent House makes me wonder if it can surprise. Like Boosch, I initially saw it as very arthouse-y, but on second thought as long as it can make people think it's scary, then it's as mainstream as any other horror. It actually feels like a cross between a found footage (as it's one continuous shot) and a regular horror. And A Thousand Words? Keep away.

PTA will be interesting and very much depends on theatre count. 15 theatres makes me wonder if Salmon Fishing is worth picking up, especially as it hampers points next week. If Footnote opens in a few theatres, that could surprise. And if Friends with Kids opens anywhere under 30 (Like Cedar Rapids, which won a pile of PTA points), it'll be a necessity. So right now i's a tough call about the PTA champ.

My guesses:

1. The Lorax - $35 million
2. John Carter - $25 million
3. Project X - $10 million
4. Silent House - $8 million
5. Act of Valor - $7 million

A Thousand Words - $4 million

[Shonenbat]

1. John Carter $50 million (bad marketing, awful trailers? It doesn't matter, it's the first 2012 big budjet movie, it'll do well enough)
2. The Lorax $37 million
3. Silent House $13 million
4. Project X $9 million
5. A Thousand Words $8 million
6. Act Of Valor $7 million

[Buscemi]

Friends With Kids is looking like Top 30 to 50 markets. This could mean anywhere between 100 to 300 theatres, so I wouldn't recommend it in PTA.

[numbersix]

Interestingly, when Cedar Rapids expanded to 100 theatres it still managed a PTA of nearly $9000. Not sure if Friends with Kids will achieve that, but it's worth pointing out.

[Buscemi]

Cedar Rapids was well-marketed though. I haven't seen anything for Friends With Kids.

[W]

Cedar Rapids was well-marketed though. I haven't seen anything for Friends With Kids.

Yep. Spot on. I hadn't even heard of it until it was able to be picked at the beginning of this month and that's (and here is) literally the only place I've heard of it.

[numbersix]

Wow. MTC tracking (who are normally more accurate than RS, but who have been wrong) has John Carter at $20m, Silent House at $7m, and A Thousand Words at $4m.

[transformers2]

John Carter is going to tank, that 50 mil tracking number is hillarious. Silent House should do ok and A Thousand Words is an obvious flop.

1.The Lorax $36 Mil
2.John Carter $21 Mil
3.Silent House $13 Mil
4.Project X $12 Mil
5.Act of Valor $7 Mil

[englishozzy]

Id like for John Carter to do well, but there is something about it that's keeping me from having it on my slates.

1. The Lorax - $44 million
2. John Carter - $27 million
3. Silent House - $13 million
4. Project X - $12 million
5. Act of Valor - $8 million